Republican Party Facing a Stacked Deck in Coming Decades...

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Right, because Hispanics will always trend Democratic even though they voted 45% for Bush just five years ago. The only current minority groups that the Democrats really have a stranglehold indefinitely are blacks. Of course the point about the suburbs is obviously valid now, but the idea that Republicans are doomed because non-anglos are growing is extremely presumptuous.

As long as Republicans take a nationalist approach to immigration and the related issues (i.e. English as the official language, zero tolerance for illegal immigrants) they will continue to lose ground with Hispanics and Asians to some degree.  Bush was more popular with Hispanics than your average Republican because he had a record of promoting compromise with regards to immigration reform, he speaks Spanish (I think), and he has Mexican-American members in his family which certainly didn't hurt him.  He also came from a state with a large Hispanic population and he catered to them during his runs for governor.

Bush is atypical when it comes to Republicans and Hispanics.  His support amongst this group is solely evidence of his personal popularity amongst Hispanics.  He is the exception, not the rule, when it comes to the current GOP and their performance amongst Hispanic voters.  The GOP's real (or perceived) positions on Hispanic-related issues are different enough from the positions Bush espoused to discredit any claims that the Republicans can make to being competitive amongst Hispanic voters.

Unfortunately it appears the poor working class Hispanics prefer to remain lemmings and prefer to screw themselves economically. If the Republicans would try to turn there Immigration position into a positive I see no reason why large numbers of these hispanics wouldn't support that. Hispanics will be attracted by whoever does best for the economy and who supports the same social values as them not by blanket pandering to special interest groups and big business. Most Hispanics support English as the National Language, and oppose illegal Immigration. The problem is that Republicans have given up cause they assume the left is right and they can't win with this position.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Also Democrats have a solid majority of Jews. But that's changing slowly.

No, it isn't.  Also, Jews are hardly an electoral force on par with Hispanics.

The only state where they are in large enough numbers are NY and FL. Well NY it will take a lot more then Jews to put the GOP over the top. In FL there are a large number of Jews but is more a question of whether the Dem gets 75% or 90% of them and how many turnout. Plus the only Jewish Republican thats succeeded in reaching prominence in Eric Cantor and I don't think he is representative of the broader Jewish community nor would a he be a good spokesperson for attracting that group.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I would guess that Latinos that are descended from more recent immigrants are going to be pretty strongly Democratic, but that will vary depending on where they live. I am sure that Latinos in Texas that will be third generation in 2020 are going to be more conservative, than those in California. In the southwest recent immigrants are almost all Mexicans and so far Mexicans are one of the most Democratic Latino voting groups. I don't really see this changing quickly. By 2020 or 2030 there should be starting to be a pretty large amount of illegal immigrant descended second generation voters, with or without some form of amnesty. This generation of voters will probably be unanimously Democratic for the most part.

What I am trying to say is that it will take 30 or 40 years for Latinos to become significantly more Republican. There are just too many recent immigrants and too much of a stigma against the Republican Party with Latinos among people born recently. Rush Limbaugh had approval ratings in the single digits among Latinos, and he is considered the face of the Republican narrowly in a gallup poll.

Another big problem for Republicans will be when the turnout of Mexican-Americans starts to increase in large amounts. I am beginning to think that this is inevitable and when this happens in large amounts it will have pretty huge effects on the Southwest. This hasn't really happened yet but when it does, the Democrats' dominance over parts of the Southwest should be assured.

I think there is hope for Republicans if they support a guest-worker program. This way, they don't reward people for breaking the law, but they help those who want to make their families life in Mexico or where ever better.

Maybe, the problem with the guest-worker program is that it will depress wages of Latinos already living in the United States, while some form of amnesty wouldn't depress wages in the same. I remember that 65% of Latinos want amnesty of some form too, so the Republicans definitley have some major problems on their hands.

The only thing I see that could possibly pass with the bulk of Republicans(and no I don't mean McCain, Graham etc) is if the Pence-Hutchinson plan were revived and combined with both Democrat Heath Shuler's SAVE Act, and another bill beefing up interior enforcement as well as enforcement on the border. This would be the only compromise that could work and get my support, Pence-Hutchinson had a path to legalization with a vague touchback requirement that could be watered down if necessary but combined with the SAVE act would mean it has real enforcement mechanisms and not the half measures promised in the past two phony compromises.