Two elections isn't a trend, people. Just because Hispanics have "trended" Democratic in 06 and 08 is meaningless, as recent as 04 they were "trending" Republican. There are too many factors to take into account that make us unable to determine whether this is a long-tern trend.
One trend always merits watching: the voting of the youngest voters. Basic personalities and attitudes change little over life. If young voters tend to be more conservative than older voters (1980s) on economics and foreign policy they will tend to be more conservative than the general public, then they are more likely to vote for conservative politicians throughout their lives. As older, more liberal-leaning voters die off the electorate becomes more conservative. (Youth will be more liberal than their elders on sexuality irrespective of their values on economics and foreign policy but become more conservative as their kids become teenagers -- I wonder why). If youth lean liberal in a country split about 50-50 liberal-conservative, then the young, more liberal voters will supplant older voters slightly more conservative who die off. Such tends to make a more liberal-leaning electorate for a few years.
That is the trend. It's possible to believe that as the youngest generation of voters develops a stake in the economy it might become more conservative -- which will happen when the current young voters start professional practices, when the businesses that they start begin turning profitable (and tempting to taxing authorities), enter management in business, and start accumulating savings. Then they might find inflation a threat to their wealth, regulation a pain, and "pro-business, anti-labor" policies compatible with their economic lot. Such of course has yet to happen. Most young adults with professional and even clerical jobs have large student loans to pay off, so they are unlikely to see inflation as much bane as deliverance.
The trend of Latinos to the Democratic Party in 2006 and 2008 may reflect one thing: relative youth. Although new Latino citizens may be of all ages, those are not the sole story in voting practices. Many have been citizens from birth or childhood, and they get to vote at age 18. Young Latino voters may be an exaggeration of the trend of voting among youth.
Definitely agree about the youth phenomenon, and thank you for addressing it. It was highlighted by Barack Obama's campaign and ultimate election, but I think it goes deeper than that. If you look at all the exit polls, even among minorities - African Americans, Hispanics, Asians, etc. - Obama always did best among young voters 18-29 years of age. He also won the young white vote in a couple of states that he lost (Missouri and Montana - I believe a map was posted on the forum under a different thread) but ironically he lost the young white vote in states that he carried including Virginia, Florida, and New Mexico, but disregarding race, Obama won the national youth vote by a two-to-one margin over John McCain. That cannot be good news for the Republican Party, and I do agree that their coalition is shrinking and Democrats' is expanding.
If Republicans wish to make ground with my generation, they are going to have to moderate on their "values," especially regarding the social issues, because my generation is increasingly becoming more and more libertarian-leaning, but the reason I think we vote so solidly Democratic in recent elections is because we are turned off by the Republican rhetoric involving God, guns and gays. I'm not saying that all young people are a bunch of atheist hippies; we just don't vote with our Bibles and we really don't care what women do with their uterus or who people sleep with or what people put in their bodies. Roe v. Wade is never going to be overturned, same-sex marriage will become legalized over time, and the War on Drugs will eventually come to an end. These wedge issues play well with the Republican base of the "evangelical Christians" a.k.a. the Bible thumping hicks and rednecks, but they are fortunately dying off so what happens when THEY become the minority and when they cannot win elections by talking about the "sanctity" of life and marriage and other mumbo-jumbo? Not a good thing at all.
My hypothesis is that if the Republican Party continues to be driven by conservative right-wing talk radio hosts like Rush Limbaugh, Michael Savage, Ann Coulter, etc. who alienate, demonize, bash and label everyone who disagrees with them as "socialists," "liberals," "idiots," "Godless," etc., that leaves no room for moderation, and my generation will become a faithful voting bloc of the Democrats nearly or in as much as African Americans have. Furthermore, if the Religious Right of the party is not silenced or at least compromises on their values, it is going to turn off youth even more. Calling people "sinners," "perverts," "deviants," "immoral," and telling them "You're going to Hell!" if they support a woman's right to choose or marriage equality isn't exactly a good way to get votes, especially young voters who are already skeptical about organized religion and its inevitably waning influence in politics.
Government + Religion = Disaster. That's all I have to say regarding this. Religion is not the answer to our problems; religion is the problem.
