AL-JMC: DOUG +4

[libertpaulian]

Jones need to be in Montgomery/Birmingham/Huntsville/Mobile and the Black Belt relentlessly over the next few weeks.

Jones has been constantly campaigning across the entire state. I've got to give it to him - he's pretty smart and has a lot of stamina.

He did hit Mobile with John Lewis recently. And Jones prosecuting the church bombers should give him a lot of goodwill in Birmingham.

If Jones wants to win any white votes, campaigning with John Lewis isn't very smart.

Mobile County is 1/3 black. He needs to squeeze every Democratic leaning vote out of there to keep it close. He needs like 47-48 percent of the vote here. HRC got 42 percent with obviously depressed interest by black voters.

I'd say to barely eke it out, 30% of the white vote and Obama-levels of minority turnout will be key.