GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[The Other Castro]

2 more things:

1. Fun fact: It's Karen Handel's birthday today

2. Ossoff campaign says they're preparing for a possible recount, they think it will be close.

[Jeppe]

What time does the poll close?

[Pragmatic Conservative]

What time does the poll close?

7pm est

[The Other Castro]

What time does the poll close?

7pm est

Shortly afterwards many here will be freaking out when Ossoff has 60+% from the EV.

[Devout Centrist]

What time does the poll close?

7pm est

Shortly afterwards many here will be freaking out when Ossoff has 60+% from the EV.

Well the early vote was tied this time around, so if he gets 60%+, that's alarming because there was a divided field AND a significant crossover effect.

[RI]

What time does the poll close?

7pm est

Shortly afterwards many here will be freaking out when Ossoff has 60+% from the EV.

Or others freaking out if he's under 60% in the early vote...

[Holmes]

What time does the poll close?

7pm est

Shortly afterwards many here will be freaking out when Ossoff has 60+% from the EV.

Probably not so much after last week but an especially good EV showing is always good. If it's a weak showing for Ossoff, then that's not a good sign.

[Crumpets]

If Ossoff doesn't live in the district, how is he so popular there? Anyway, Ossoff could be a Southern rising star post-Clinton/Edwards.

He lives literally about a 15 minute run from GA-06. Between weird county lines and the district lines they might as well all be the same place.

Yeah. My Congresswoman (Jayapal) didn't live in my district either, but nobody really cares because she did going by the old boundaries, still lives reasonably close, promised to move after the election, and the fact that nobody really notices a cultural distinction just by crossing Madison St where the congressional line is. We trust her to represent us. I'm guessing there are similar dynamics in metro Atlanta.

[Hindsight was 2020]

DeKalb county turnout now at: 8,873 https://mobile.twitter.com/DeKalbVotes/status/854388139787517952

[Xing]

Consider this a friendly reminder not to over-analyze turnout reports and very early results. See you at 7 pm EST, friends.

[Brittain33]

It is "pouring buckets" in Sandy Springs.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fulton County seeking to extend voting hours at two precincts due to problems: http://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/6th-district-vote-fulton-seeks-extend-polling-hours-dekalb-and-cobb-smooth/frwd3lbSgVaVuHR7xSF32L/

[Crumpets]

It is "pouring buckets" in Sandy Springs.

I know the typical adage is that bad weather hurts Democrats, but when the Republicans are expected to win the election day vote handily, might bad weather and low election-day turnout be good for them? Looking back on the election in 2016, the weather was pretty good across the country, and election day voting was strong, but only served to help the Republicans.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It is "pouring buckets" in Sandy Springs.

Not widespread, though.  It's been beautiful here (near the northern edge of the district) all day so far.

[The Other Castro]

Apparently Ossoff's campaign manager last night "went out of his way to prepare volunteers for a runoff".

https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/854374521507373056?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet


Then again, if they were expecting an outright win, that'd be super cocky and worrying.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

AP results by County: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_county/GA_Page_0418.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

In the counties as a whole, Clinton won Cobb 48/46, Fulton 68/27, and DeKalb 79/17. But the district just skates through part of each county, so those numbers aren't really that helpful. Still, Ossoff should do better in DeKalb than in Fulton, and better in Fulton than in Cobb.

[GeorgiaModerate]

AP results by County: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_county/GA_Page_0418.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

In the counties as a whole, Clinton won Cobb 48/46, Fulton 68/27, and DeKalb 79/17. But the district just skates through part of each county, so those numbers aren't really that helpful. Still, Ossoff should do better in DeKalb than in Fulton, and better in Fulton than in Cobb.

Harry Enten estimates Ossoff needs 43 in Cobb, 49 in Fulton, and 60 in DeKalb to reach a majority tonight: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-georgia-6-special-election/

[Gass3268]

AP results by County: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_county/GA_Page_0418.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

In the counties as a whole, Clinton won Cobb 48/46, Fulton 68/27, and DeKalb 79/17. But the district just skates through part of each county, so those numbers aren't really that helpful. Still, Ossoff should do better in DeKalb than in Fulton, and better in Fulton than in Cobb.

538 has a Google Sheet that they will update the vote by precinct.

[DrScholl]

Clinton lost the Cobb portion 55-40 and carried the DeKalb portion 57-38, while narrowly losing Fulton 49-46. Ossoff's benchmarks to win outright tonight are 40-62-51 respectively in each of those counties (in alphabetical order).

[The Other Castro]

Thunderstorms and in some parts hail are now here. Also:

Ben Jacobs @Bencjacobs  21m21 minutes ago
483 Election Day votes so far at the First Baptist Church in Roswell. Precinct has roughly 2000 voters

[ajc0918]

DeKalb Turnout Update for Congressional Districts 6: Total as of 3 pm: 12,608

[Gass3268]

Thunderstorms and in some parts hail are now here. Also:

Ben Jacobs @Bencjacobs  21m21 minutes ago
483 Election Day votes so far at the First Baptist Church in Roswell. Precinct has roughly 2000 voters

Clinton got 47.32% in this precinct.

[KingSweden]

If Ossoff doesn't live in the district, how is he so popular there? Anyway, Ossoff could be a Southern rising star post-Clinton/Edwards.

He lives literally about a 15 minute run from GA-06. Between weird county lines and the district lines they might as well all be the same place.

Yeah. My Congresswoman (Jayapal) didn't live in my district either, but nobody really cares because she did going by the old boundaries, still lives reasonably close, promised to move after the election, and the fact that nobody really notices a cultural distinction just by crossing Madison St where the congressional line is. We trust her to represent us. I'm guessing there are similar dynamics in metro Atlanta.

She was technically in Smith's district, no?

Have to imagine her residency would have been a bigger issue had she not lived in Seattle proper, rather than just the part of the city outside of the 7th

[GeorgiaModerate]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/854417128773918720

[Gass3268]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/854417128773918720

This precinct went from 48.85% Obama to 60.41% Clinton.