Between Two Majorities | The Cordray Administration

[GlobeSoc]

v9:

Wow, when they say Iowa would be one of the most R states in the nation, they mean it. It's more Republican than Kansas!

Also, why did you color the Twin Cities and Madison as lean/likely R? I would think that there would be Democratic support in the city centers, which would have high minority populations. Do the suburbs that happen to be in these counties outvote the central cities?

I'll adjust them tomorrow when I add Indiana and a few other states.

On Iowa, I was not expecting a sweep like that, but then I realized that every county is thoroughly white, has high PPP, or both.

[GlobeSoc]

Looks the theory that Iowa is the next West Virginia are true after all!

I'm interested as to how you are accounting for hownmuch internal migration the Hispanic population undertakes and how much the Hispanic will integrate by this time. I found a map that shows where the Hispanic population seems to be moving too:



It's interesting that the states predicted to get the most influx of Hispanics are coastal southern states like Alabama, Louisania and South Carolina.

Also Eastern Iowa seems to be a future destination for Hispanics so you might need to adjust for that, unless you believe that Hispanics will have integrated enough for there to be no effect.

In Iowa it will only shift a few counties to likely/lean R.

Thanks for the data, it will help in both revising and adding to my map

[GlobeSoc]

I have a decently large release of New England, New Jersey, New York, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Indiana ready. I will post it in this thread at 5 cdt.

[GlobeSoc]

Next is Illinois, and then we'll head into the meme zone the south

[GlobeSoc]

Wow PA must be like R+7 or something like that.  Also would CT and NH be R here?

Yes, but they're much closer than they 'should' be.

[GlobeSoc]

Wow, interesting that Western PA still seems republican in this alignment (save a couple of counties). I wonder what this means for West Virginia.

Pay more attention to eastern Ohio, in the ohio valley.

[GlobeSoc]

I see there has been a rebound for democrats in the industrial areas from 2016 in the Midwest (Specifically Ohio and Pennsylvania). They also are doing much better in the rural areas here and in the Northeast post-trump. Again i could easily mistake this for say a 1968 Election map which goes to show how this is more or less a return of normalcy to the New Deal Coalition except with more minority's as a factor and a little more rural and industrial appeal for republicans.

Also is Maine a democratic PVI? there. I see the democrats regained the northern county's there and industrial timber areas there which seems odd due to the fact that republicans are still winning those same types of areas big in the midwest in Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and too a lesser extend in Ohio and Michigan.

Also i see Manhattan and Queens borough are 40%> along with 50%> in Queens and the Bronx. Is that a mistake because the Five boroughs are so democratic and have been throughout history and with non Hispanic white populations still staying in a minority and probably growing more so combined with a the city still containing loads of poor whites and minority's which would seem perfect ground for a Populist democratic party (the poorer working class would trend back to the democratic from say a high in the 2020s-2030s in trumpist republican politics as shown from democratic gains in the Midwest margin wise) i would assume it would either be a mistake or a error. Don't get me wrong, i would think a republican party like this would narrow the margins here big time due to moderates and wealthier folks coming home to there party (like pre-reagan) but i see that narrowly going only as far as 60-40% margins throughout the four boroughs minus Staten island with maybe 55-60% in Queens if the Republican is right and other factors are there.

Orleans County in New York seems out of place. It has only voted once for a Democrat and that was in 1964. It doesn't have any significant minority population (89% White plus White Hispanics) nor no democratic trend. If any thing as shown through its history, i think it would trend for a moderate republican party.

Why would Wisconsin be so much more republican then Michigan? At a national level, yes, Wisconsin is 1-3 points more, on average, more republican then Michigan but that maps shows Wisconsin something like a R+5-10 State while Michigan is much less so. Why would democrats gain here like in the rest of the rust belt and narrowly some of those western and eastern county's. Its already been questioned below but i cant see any way the republicans can make Madison a likely county for them. If any there best shoot is tossup up and they will gain post alignment margin wise but unless Madison College and city is suddenly populated by conservatives then i fail to see how republicans win. Even if the Suburbs in the county go here plus the outer rings of the city, the county would most likely still go democrat and by a fair 1-10 point margin.

Orleans County, NYC are mistakes. New York was one of the last states I added in the previous revisions. Orleans is just a misclick, NYC is overexaggeration of the democratic losses there.

Madison is >40% because it's a lean r county, although I could see the case for it being lean or likely d. What rating would you assign it?

Michigan is WAD, it has PPP closer to IN and OH than WI and MN. So is Maine, it's poorer than Minnesota and Wisconsin, lasted longer for dems in this alignment, and is closer to OH and MI

Politically, WI and MN are very similar to the interior plains in this alignment, even if more urban.

[GlobeSoc]

Yay IL is next, ima guess the Ds have a bit of ground in NW IL and Southern IL, but that's defeated by GOP Domination in the Collars and thinning of the Cook margin, R+3 overall.

The only real improvements for dems will be in Peoria, Central, and Southern Illinois. The rest will stay the same or crater. The problem for dems in NW IL is that most(but not all, Fulton is one exception) counties west and north of peoria have political behavior similar to Iowa these past couple of elections and have similar PPP to Iowa, and similar to Iowa=doom for democrats

[GlobeSoc]

Rushed out adding Illinois because I am not going to be able to access my current device for a couple days and I want to be able to download it from the gallery on an alternate

[GlobeSoc]

R+3?

Possible, but I'd think that it would be D+2 to R+2. A 'true' toss up in a close election.

[GlobeSoc]

With the addition of Maryland it became really obvious that most of the suburbs of the BosWash form a GOP stronghold(except for the DC metro)

[GlobeSoc]

My map isn't dead, I've just been busy and unable to work on it.

I'll post an update Soon^TM

[GlobeSoc]

[GlobeSoc]

I know Oklahoma would still have a republican PVI but i wonder how much due to Democrat gains in the Southeast (Which is nice and looks better then all republican all sweep of county's in present Oklahoma). Same with Virginia due to Republicans regained strength in the suburbs of the southeast and partially the north and center regions though that is in exchange for more rural and poor southwestern and south center county's. I assume it is either a small D PVI like a D-1/2 however it could just as well be a even one and possibly though unlikely a small R PVI of like D-.25-1%.

VA is a modestly republican state, R+1 to R+3

[GlobeSoc]

I know Oklahoma would still have a republican PVI but i wonder how much due to Democrat gains in the Southeast (Which is nice and looks better then all republican all sweep of county's in present Oklahoma). Same with Virginia due to Republicans regained strength in the suburbs of the southeast and partially the north and center regions though that is in exchange for more rural and poor southwestern and south center county's. I assume it is either a small D PVI like a D-1/2 however it could just as well be a even one and possibly though unlikely a small R PVI of like D-.25-1%.

VA is a modestly republican state, R+1 to R+3

Yea i see that now. I didn't zoom in on NOVA when i said that. I now see that Fairfax is close and the Republicans win Alexandria and republicans are getting 60%< in some of those upper Virginian county's too. I assume this is do to wealthier suburbs of both white and minority stature coming home to the republican party post realignment. The same could be said in the Southeast and in the center regions where republicans retake the democratic gains there. How about Oklahoma though? I'm going to say anywhere from R+5/10 to R+15.

For the record, that map isn't 100% literal.My system is is

>40%=tilt/lean
>50%=likely
>60%=safe

I'd imagine that a lot of safe counties might be in the upper 50s in actual vote %, for example.

[GlobeSoc]

[GlobeSoc]

I know Oklahoma would still have a republican PVI but i wonder how much due to Democrat gains in the Southeast (Which is nice and looks better then all republican all sweep of county's in present Oklahoma). Same with Virginia due to Republicans regained strength in the suburbs of the southeast and partially the north and center regions though that is in exchange for more rural and poor southwestern and south center county's. I assume it is either a small D PVI like a D-1/2 however it could just as well be a even one and possibly though unlikely a small R PVI of like D-.25-1%.

VA is a modestly republican state, R+1 to R+3

Yea i see that now. I didn't zoom in on NOVA when i said that. I now see that Fairfax is close and the Republicans win Alexandria and republicans are getting 60%< in some of those upper Virginian county's too. I assume this is do to wealthier suburbs of both white and minority stature coming home to the republican party post realignment. The same could be said in the Southeast and in the center regions where republicans retake the democratic gains there. How about Oklahoma though? I'm going to say anywhere from R+5/10 to R+15.

For the record, that map isn't 100% literal.My system is is

>40%=tilt/lean
>50%=likely
>60%=safe

I'd imagine that a lot of safe counties might be in the upper 50s in actual vote %, for example.

Oh I know. All I'm noting is in some northern Virginia counties I could see in some of those safe republican 60% and more for the republican nominee whomever that may be on average. Also I find it strange how they would lose Prince Williams County in this scenario. It seems perfect for this Republican Party: College Educated, Surburban, Filled with Wealthier Minority's and Whites.

You are right, I'll adjust it to 50% R

[GlobeSoc]

in this county map, which candidate is winning? Or is this for a hypothetical election of 2044, where the PV is pretty much tied?

Supposed to be tied, if it seems like it isn't once I'm done, I'll tinker with it until it is.

[GlobeSoc]

I just had a weird thought: what if the alt-right are the closest thing to this alignment's hippies? There are differences, but history rhymes, I guess?

Similarities:
-Small, yet vocal minority of the last pre-realignment generation
-An ideologically impure offshoot of the majority party(A lot of the New Left became economic centrists)
-Being a major pain to the majority party in various primaries, yet achieving little success(Trump is arguably the alt-right's only major politician, and even that's a stretch)
-Drags the mainstream in the opposite direction to their faction by being blatantly disruptive/offensive to 'normal' discourse(Of course you could argue this point about SJW's, but luckily for the dems, the lense is magnified by the context of our times on the nominally nationalist Trump, weakening focus on them. Low-info apathetic people will only see Trump falling on his face.)

[GlobeSoc]

[GlobeSoc]

[GlobeSoc]

Can I ask why Broward County is a Republican county in this TL? It is relatively suburban, but isn't that affluent and has a plurality of non-white residents. Sorry if something like this has been covered; I'm not entirely sure I understand the dynamics of this realignment.

C U B A N S

Also, it is affluent in PPP. If the hispanics were less C U B A N or the county less wealthy it would be lean D rather than lean R.

[GlobeSoc]

Can I ask why Broward County is a Republican county in this TL? It is relatively suburban, but isn't that affluent and has a plurality of non-white residents. Sorry if something like this has been covered; I'm not entirely sure I understand the dynamics of this realignment.

C U B A N S

Also, it is affluent in PPP. If the hispanics were less C U B A N or the county less wealthy it would be lean D rather than lean R.

As someone who lives in Broward, Cubans are not that prominent there, only 5% of the county is Cuban, the rest is mainly Central/South American and Puerto Rican. The wealthy point does stand though, I'll give you that.

Small error, but I'm keeping it. Remember, the hispanic and wealthy demographic is actually voting republican by this point, its just that there are relatively few places where that matters.

[GlobeSoc]

I don't see Palm Beach County going Republican.

Wealthy, white, suburban. I might actually upgrade it to Safe R, now that you've reminded me of Palm Beach's existence.

[GlobeSoc]

Squeezed this in