Most areas that swung Republican, were more anti-Obama than pro-McCain (Ark., Appalachia) and the home states Mass. and Ariz., but are there any areas where the swing was caused by McCain being a better candidate for the area than Bush?
I would think those types of areas uniformly swung towards Obama. You could make the case that it would have swung even more had the candidate been a "bush type" republican.
pretty much yeah. McCain was a better candidate than Bush in the West Coast States, the Northeast, and most parts of the Rocky Mountain West. Problem was, Obama was a much better candidate for these regions than Gore or Kerry had been.
California is a good example of this: on paper, McCain should have been a far better candidate for the state than Bush, yet he did 8 points worse than Bush had done in 2004. This was caused by a number of factors: California was one of the states hit hardest by the housing bubble and the stock market crash, and these especially hurt areas that normally vote Republican. Obama was an almost perfect candidate for California and ran a far better campaign nationally. Had it not been for Prop 8, McCain would probably have done even worse. However, had he been running against a Kerry or Gore-type Democrat in a 2000 or 2004-type environment, the result would have been much closer. Of course, in a 2004-type environment, neither Obama or McCain would have been nominated.
