Even an R+1 environment (which the WA primary suggested) results in the Republicans winning a solid margin in the House and most of the toss-up Senate seats. That's a 5.5-point swing from 2020.
Sorry for the double post but where are you getting this estimate? Here's what I have:
2022 D+14 SEN primary vs. ? actual
2020 D+14 congressional primary vs. D+20 congressional actual
2018 D+24 congressional primary vs. D+28 congressional actual
2016 D+15 congressional primary vs. D+11 congressional actual
That is to say, this seems to suggest that 2022 is similar to 2020 or perhaps 2016, D+3 or R+1 on the GCB respectively. (And before someone mentions it, yes, I used SEN data; there was a lot of crossover by Democrats to try to save Newhouse and Beutler, so I think SEN is a better measure.) This is actually kind of what I mean. At the time of the Washington primaries, everyone accepted that they were really good for Dems relative to expectations, but now everyone seems to have retconned it. Really weird.
The issue is WA is not necessarily a very good barometer to the nation. Given the current coalitions, Washington seems like one of the places to be least affected by an R wave along with much of the Northeast, Colorado, and racially polarized parts of the southeast.
