Sam Spade's 2010 Predictions

[CARLHAYDEN]

Only going to list my Top 50 on the Republican side and Top 25 on the Democratic side in the House because that's probably as far as I need to go for the moment.

EDIT (November 16):  Changed to 60 Republican seats because I think they deserve a slightly wider net at the moment.  No change to Dems.

EDIT (December 15):  With some new open seats, the list has been changed a bit.  I haven't added any more Dem seats to the Watch List for now, but I may add a couple more soon.

HOUSE

DEM (GOP Targets)

Toss-up
1. TN-06*
2. LA-03*
3. VA-05
4. ID-01
5. AL-02
6. KS-03*
7. WA-03*
8. MD-01
9. NM-02
10. MS-01
11. TN-08*
12. CO-04
13. PA-07*
14. OH-01
15. NH-02*
16. OH-15

Lean D
17. FL-24
18. IL-14
19. NH-01
20. NV-03
21. MI-07
22. NY-29
23. AR-02
24. NY-23
25. TX-17
26. FL-08
27. NC-08
28. VA-02
29. OH-16
30. NY-24
31. IA-03
32. OH-18

Likely D
33. TN-04
34. PA-11
35. PA-10
36. HI-01*
37. GA-08
38. NY-01
39. VA-11
40. SC-05
41. PA-03
42. CA-11
43. MO-04
44. NY-20
45. PA-04
46. AZ-05

Watch List
AR-01
AZ-01
CT-04
FL-02
FL-22
GA-12
IN-09
MS-04
NJ-03
NM-01
NY-19
PA-12
SD-AL
TX-23
VA-09
WI-08

GOP (DEM Targets)

Toss-up
1. LA-02
2. DE-AL*
3. IL-10*
4. PA-06*

Lean R
5. WA-08
6. CA-03
7. NE-02
8. PA-15
9. OH-12

Likely R
10. MN-06
11. CA-44
12. KS-04*
13. OH-02
14. TX-10
15. CA-45

Watch List
AK-AL
AL-05
FL-10
FL-12*
FL-15
FL-16
IL-13
MI-11
MN-03
SC-02

Add Arizona ( to the toss-up category.  Gabby has gone out of her way to antagonize her constitutents, and is likely to be looking for work after the election.

[CARLHAYDEN]

HOUSE

DEM (GOP Targets)

Likely R (1 seat)
TN-06*

Lean R (7 seats)
AR-02*
ID-01
KS-03*
LA-03*
NM-02
OH-01
VA-05

Toss-up (22 seats)
AL-02
AR-01*
CO-04
FL-08
IN-08*
IN-09
MD-01
MI-07
MS-01
NH-01
NH-02*
NV-03
NY-01
NY-23
NY-24
NY-29*
OH-15
PA-07*
PA-12*
TN-08*
VA-02
WA-03*

Lean D (19 seats)
AZ-05
AZ-08
CA-11
FL-24
HI-01*
IA-03
MA-10*
MO-04
NC-08
ND-AL
NJ-03
NY-19
OH-16
PA-03
PA-10
PA-11
SC-05
TN-04
TX-17

Likely D (14 seats)
CO-03
CT-04
CT-05
FL-22
IL-14
NM-01
OH-18
PA-04
PA-08
SD-AL
VA-09
VA-11
WV-01
WI-08

Watch List (27 seats)
AZ-01
AR-04
CA-47
CO-07
FL-02
GA-08
GA-12
IL-08
IL-11
IN-02
KY-06
MI-09
MS-04
MO-03
NC-11
NY-13
NY-20
OH-06
OH-13
OK-02
OR-05
PA-17
TX-23
UT-02
WA-02
WI-03
WI-07
WV-03

GOP (DEM Targets)

Likely D (2 seats)
DE-AL
LA-02

Toss-up (1 seat)
IL-10

Lean R (4 seats)
CA-03
PA-06
PA-15
WA-08

Likely R (3 seats)
MN-06
NE-02
OH-02

Watch List (8 seats)
AZ-03*
CA-44
CA-45
FL-12*
FL-25*
KS-04*
OH-12
SC-02

Sorry Sam, but Arizona 8 is leaning heavily Republican!

Gabby has enraged her constituents with her 'Pelosi ' impersonation.