UK local elections, May 2018

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

In May we're going to see the first local elections after the Humiliation Of Theresa May (as you may recall, the 2017 locals were when her spin was at its peak and Corbyn was about as mired as he has ever been).

The big draw will be in London. Now the last London elections were already pretty good for Labour, with its best results in a few decades and taking control of Hammersmith, Harrow, Croydon, Redbridge and Merton; apparently targets this time around will include Barnet, Tower Hamlets (from the Lutfur Raham aligned independent group), Hillingdon, Wandsworth, Westminster and the notorious Kensington and Chelsea council of Grenfell infamy.

There is also interfactional disputes to play around with, which we've seen most prominently in Haringey and their disputes over an urban regeneration scheme (watch out for other inner city strongly Labour councils like Camden and Lambeth having similar disputes).

The Lib Dems for their part see a strong opening in Kingston, with the governing Tories being potentially reduced to two or three wards in a particularly dreadful night (their leader is in a bit of Twitte drama atm). They also think they can take on Tory-controlled Richmond.

The Tories will mainly play defence, except from a possible attempt to take Sutton (currently Lib Dem). They are likely to lose across the board, with warnings of rump oppositions left in boroughs like Enfield, Ealing etc.

Outside of London, there will be plenty of councils up in halves or thirds.  Of the metropolitan  boroughs, Birmingham, Leeds, Manchester and Newcastle (all Labour) will be fully up (as will Hull, which is technically a "unitary authority" but who care?). Don't know enough about the specifics to give predictions in the district councils, but will probably look into them more deeply as year progresses.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Dunno. Trouble is, as precarious a position as May is in, there is no obvious shining knight in armour that is acceptable to both the majority of the Tory MPs and the membership. (And the Tory leadership, unlike Labour, needs to be narrowed down by parliamentarians so there is less chance of a Corbyn scenario.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

yeah I doubt it as well (a 20 pt Con>Lab swing would net about 7 seats from Earl's court + Chelsea Riverside + St Helens), but I assume people are putting symbolic importance in ousting the notorious group.

Westminster seem's a tall order as well, but I assume Labour will grab enough seats as the 1986 election that freaked out Shirley Porter back in the day.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Enfield Prediction: Labour will maintain all their current seats, take all the seats in the split wards (Chase in the North, Southgate Green + Winchmore Hill + Bush Hill Park in the SW) as well as taking over Southgate and maybe Town. That would reduce the Tories to a nub in Cockfosters, Highlands and Grange wards, and a nine seat opposition. (The Tories have really crumbled here - they used to be competitive everywhere aside from Edmonton and its surroundings but "social dumping" from central boroughs has massively changed the character of the North of the borough and of course the Soutgate/Winchmore areas reacted ... poorly to the 2017 Tory election style.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Barnet is interesting, even though on paper it requuires only the tiniest pick-up to be Labour gain. I think it might be the only "swing" (in ordinary situations) borough that voted Tory last election and Remain. The Tories, fwiw, won all three constituencies in the borough, although all in a marginal sense (with Hendon being only won by 106 votes). This was the 2014 result:



(Colindale isn't independent, it was delayed: Labour won all three seats. The split wards were Brunswick Park, where a Tory won; Hale, with one Labour and Childs Hill (one Lib Dem).

The big factor that led to a relative underperfomance in Barnet was the anti-Labour swing in the Jewish vote. We'll see if the party has repaired any of the damage here, especially in the wards with the most Jews like Golders Green, Finchley Church End, Edgware, Hendon and (Hampstead) Garden Suburb. Counteracting that is a big pro-Labour swing in Chipping Barnet, the seat that covers the NE of the borough (and also the least Jewish). Almost certainly a pick-up, but there may be odd ward swings. I think Labour will easily take the split wards (including Childs Hill, which is a three way marginal), and Oakleigh and may penetrate elsewhere in the borough (High Barnet? Totteridge?).

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I'm pretty sure my grandma would be disenfranchised under voter ID system: she has never learnt how to drive and her passport has expired.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Why are the greens so strong in Solihull? Brighton I understand, but Solihull strikes me as a more generic "affluent" suburb within the sort of trendiness or student presence that normally signifies green strength.