2017 French Presidential Election

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So in terms of "indirect exposure" time it's:

279 Thatcherboy
139 FBM
96 Panzergirl
67 Hamon
25 Mélenchon

In other words, "F**k off, leftists, we have decided that this race is between corrupt mean neoliberal, pragmatic nice neoliberal, and big bad fascists."

You can't just put everything in the media's basket. A candidate also has a responsibility for his visibility.

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Hollande "condemns with the utmost firmness the false allegations of Fillon"

Fillon made also a disgusting comparison by saying that his situation made him think of Bérégovoy (French PM who committed suicide after an electoral defeat and some scandal)

Wow. This guy is like if you take Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu, mash them together and make it even worse.

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Why are people suddenly falling in love with Melenchon? If he becomes the new French left, I will never be able to support it.

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they should probably stop publishing Fillon v. Le Pen polls then.

Well, I believe that a majority of pollsters publish only Macron-Le Pen polls now.

Has anyone polled a Len Pen-Melenchon second round, out of curiosity?

Maybe, but we won't know. French laws forbid to publish unrealistic runoff poll.

How could you have a law against polling an "unrealistic run-off"? Aren't polling companies free to pose any question they want?

They can pose any question they want, in fact Hamon insists that polls show him ahead of Le Pen in a runoff, but they can't publish them.
The law said that a second round poll must be published with a first round poll (so the second round poll has to be coherent with the first round poll).
Polls are "supervised" by an independent commission, which has constantly ruled against the publication of unrealistic runoff poll.

A very bad rule, in my opinion. Really restricts the freedom of pollsters without a reason good enough to do such a thing.

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From the same poll,



Fillon voters split pretty equally between Le Pen and Macron; a big chunk of Fillon Melenchon voters abstain in the second round.

I guess that is pretty much what you'd expect, Fillon's left overs will be the hardcore - but I would expect Melenchon's more recent pick-ups to be more willing to vote for Macron in round two.

These 1% 1st round Macron voters who would vote Le Pen in the second round though.

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Macron 72%
Hamon 61%
Arthaud 59%
Poutou 58%
Fillon 54%
Melenchon 51%
Cheminade 49%
Dupont-Aignan 48%
Le Pen 36%

Pretty much as expected.

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Wow, Melenchon really is surging. He turned from a factor taking votes away from PS to a real threat, like Le Pen. I'm really worried by whats's happening to Macron's numbers.

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If it's Melenchon vs Le Pen, I really don't know who would I support. Melenchon might be slightly better.

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I just found out that Melenchon wants to give French citizenship to Julian Assange.

F[INKS] HIM F[INKS] HIM F[INKS] HIM F[INKS] HIM F[INKS] HIM

So you'd support Le Pen over him in a runoff?

While both are terrible in this regard, Le Pen is even more of a Putin hack, so while I can't speak for BRTD, Melenchon is probably preferable.

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I'm hoping Mélenchon surprises everybody and makes the runoff. He's probably the best person to lead France after the disaster Hollande's been, since poor Hamon has no chance. Macron just comes off as more of the same old guard, just rebranded and made younger.

I'm concerned about Melenchon's russophilia... Macron's pro-EU stance makes him much more favorable in my opinion, although the French may disagree.

Why are leftists behaving this way about Russia? This is absolutely ludicrous.

I thought we tended to like democracies and dislike oligarchic dictatorships?

Or that we tend to support gay rights and dislike state-approved homophobia and countries that ignore arrests and executions of lgbt people in their sovereign land?

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Poll Elabe (before the attack)

Macron: 24% (=)
Le Pen: 21.5% (-1.5)
Fillon: 20% (+0.5)
Mélenchon: 19.5% (+1.5)
Hamon: 7% (-1)
Dupont-Aignan: 4% (=)
Poutou: 1.5% (-0,5)
The others: at or under 1%

It's the last day of polls today, I don't know if we will have a poll done after the attack.

Does France have a "no polling can be published period" like Spain? If so, will we see polling done at mysterious Andorran shops?

Yes from tonight midnight to Sunday 8pm. Maybe some polls will be done and will leak, but it's just for one day. (And recently in France, on social media people who support Fillon, Le Pen, Asselineau, Mélenchon, ... make up fake polls, so how to distinct them from real polls?)

I'm actually curious about these polls. How ridiculous and wild are they? Asselineau winning 10%? Le Pen winning 50%? Mélenchon with 25%?

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Last Ifop update (1/3 post-terror attack)

Macron: 24.5% (+0.5)
Le Pen: 22.5 (=)
Fillon: 19.5% (=)
Mélenchon: 18.5% (=)
Hamon: 7% (=)
Dupont-Aignan: 4% (=)
Poutou: 1.5% (=)
The others: at 1% or under.

Odoxa, post-terror attack
Macron: 24.5% (-0.5, before the attack)
Le Pen: 23% (+1)
Fillon: 19% (-0.5)
Mélenchon: 19% (-0.5)
Hamon: 7.5% (+1.5)
Dupont-Aignan: 4.5% (+0.5)
The others at 1% or under.

No impact so far after the terror attack

If Dupont-Aignan somehow passes Hamon, it would be hilarious. Hilarious and sad.

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But let's still hope that Macron tops Melenchon. A Le Pen vs. Melenchon runoff would be disgusting.

I like some things about Melenchon (emotional appeal I guess), but two Frexiters versing off for president is kind of a scary concept. Aren't people worried that the end of the EU could lead to a war or at least a more insecure security situation?

They got too used to the peace and harmony in the formerly war-torn continent of Europe.