2017 French Presidential Election

[Shadows]

Four out of the five main candidates in the French presidential election support a relaxation of the country’s cannabis laws. Under the current law, first passed in 1970, taking any illegal drug carries the risk of a one-year prison sentence and a fine of up to 3,750 euros. However cannabis remains one of the most popular illegal drugs in France, with 47 per cent of 17-year-olds saying they have tried it, according to a recent survey by the French Observatory for Drugs and Addiction.

Centrist Emmanuel Macron, currently leading polls for the first round of voting on 23 April, and right-wing candidate Francois Fillon, have both said police should issue warnings and on-the-spot fines for cannabis use. Left-wing candidates Jean-Luc Melenchon and Benoit Hamon have said the drug should be legalised, while only Marine Le Pen, of the far-right Front National, is against any change to the law.“It’s a completely crazy idea. Instead we must use every force available to us to fight against drugs and drug dealers,” Ms Le Pen’s presidential campaign director David Rachline told radio station France 2 in October.

Source - http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/french-election-presidential-candidates-cannabis-laws-marijuana-emmanuel-macron-marine-le-pen-a7669706.html

[Shadows]

Having refused to pose with the others for the official photograph, saying “they’re not my colleagues”, Poutou (whose name means “little kiss” in French) told Le Pen that ordinary workers did not have the option of ignoring a legal summons.

“Since January, it’s been a feast. Fillon? Nothing but affairs; the more one digs the more one smells corruption and cheating ... it’s the same with Marine Le Pen, they’re pinching from public funds, and the FN, which is supposed to be anti-system, isn’t bothered because it’s protected thanks to parliamentary immunity.”

He arrived at the studio wearing a beige T-shirt – in stark contrast to the other male candidates all in suits and ties – and was combative from the start.

Asked to introduce himself, he said: “I’m a factory worker and apart from Nathalie Arthaud, I believe I’m the only one to have a normal job”, adding that he was against the “indecent rich”. When the moderators pointed out he was running over the time limit, Poutou said: “Just because I’m not wearing a tie, doesn’t mean you can interrupt me.” At one point he added: “Everyone is fed up with corrupt politicians, and some here know that.”

This time his slogan is: “Our lives not their profits.”

Full Article - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/05/french-election-factory-worker-philippe-poutou-emerges-as-star-of-tv-debate

[Shadows]

Post - Debate Results - Elabe Poll - Sample - 1024

Most Convincing -
Melenchon - 25%
Macron - 21%
Fillion - 15%
La Pen - 11%

Best plans for France -
Macron - 23%
Melenchon - 22%
Fillon - 18%
Le Pen - 15%

Source - http://www.politico.eu/article/melenchon-won-french-presidential-debate-poll/

(Surely Hamon is becoming more of a non-factor & he will collapse probably - Would Melenchon gain if Hamon withdraws because some voters may shift to Macron as well

[Shadows]

For the first time ? She's leading for the first round since 3 years.

Poll BVA

Macron: 23% (-2)
Le Pen: 23% (-1)
Fillon: 19% (=)
Mélenchon: 19% (+4)
Hamon: 8.5% (-3)

Second round: Macron 61% (+1), Le Pen 39%

Sample Size 1421 & date is 5-7th April. Macron-Le Pen together have gone down to 46-47% from 50-52% & Melenchon-Hamon together have changed from 25% to 27.5% odd. The left is drawing more, even though Hamon is falling.

Melenchon has drawn an average of 4% after each debate. My french friend told there would be something like another debate/forum before the run-off. Because if there is one, then Melenchon could well cross 20% & be a shade behind the Front 2 as he's a fantastic orator.

If Melenchon is within 1-2% points, a share of Hamon voters will re-consider wasting their votes. And turnout will be the key too, Melenchon's website has the highest hits & he has energized his base !

[Shadows]

Leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon, whose poll scores are rising, set the ball rolling by suggesting he would not take part in a live debate so close to the first round. He had already complained in March about TV channels’ scheduling of debates, arguing that their dates clashed with his own campaign planning. Mélenchon, a firebrand who appeared less radical onstage than far-left candidates Nathalie Arthaud and Philippe Poutou, gets more mileage out of rallies and town-hall style Youtube broadcasts.

Instead of a debate France 2 plans to conduct 10-minute interviews on the same date with each of the contestants. If one of them refuses, there will be no political show on April 20.

http://www.politico.eu/article/france-2-tv-cancels-2nd-presidential-debate/

[Shadows]

I got -

Benoit Hamon 77%
Nathalie Arthaud 75%
Philippe Poutou 74%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 73%
Jacques Cheminade 60%
Emmanuel Macron 59%
Marine Le Pen 50%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 46%
François Fillon 42%

Among the major candidates -

Hamon 77%, Melenchon 73%, Macron 59%, Le Pen 50% (God knows how!!!), Fillon 42%

[Shadows]

Reading this forum you'd think Mélenchon was going to resurrect the Soviet Union.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon is an old-style Republican Socialist. Think Jean Jaurès and Léon Blum.
He is not communist by any standard, nor do he want to start chopping heads off, or seize the means of production, or start a planned economy without property rights... And he also doesn't want to isolate France from the rest of the world, he just want to renegotiate the European treaties.

Somebody who praises people like Robespierre and supported great "Socialist" figures such as Chavez and Castro, as well as "anti-imperialist" figures like Ahmedinijad, does give people the right to be criitical.

What exactly did he say? There is something good to praise about everyone but the devil is in the details. I am sure he didn't say I support Castro's dictatorship etc! Links?

[Shadows]

Reading this forum you'd think Mélenchon was going to resurrect the Soviet Union.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon is an old-style Republican Socialist. Think Jean Jaurès and Léon Blum.
He is not communist by any standard, nor do he want to start chopping heads off, or seize the means of production, or start a planned economy without property rights... And he also doesn't want to isolate France from the rest of the world, he just want to renegotiate the European treaties.

Somebody who praises people like Robespierre and supported great "Socialist" figures such as Chavez and Castro, as well as "anti-imperialist" figures like Ahmedinijad, does give people the right to be criitical.

What exactly did he say? There is something good to praise about everyone but the devil is in the details. I am sure he didn't say I support Castro's dictatorship etc! Links?

http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/video/2016/10/10/ce-que-jean-luc-melenchon-aurait-fait-face-a-robespierre_5011125_823448.html

Here's a program where he tries his best to be an apologist of Robespierre, and he is also quoted as saying his old Parti de Gauche was the spiritual successor of the movement.

http://www.humanite.fr/melenchon-chavez-cest-lideal-inepuisable-de-lesperance-humaniste-de-la-revolution

Chavez was an "Indefatigable idea of humanist hope"

http://www.bfmtv.com/politique/mort-de-fidel-castro-l-hommage-de-jean-luc-melenchon-rassemble-200-personnes-a-paris-1063941.html

Pays tribute in wonderful terms to Castro.

I'll get the ONPC when he talks about Ahamdenijad later. He definitely cosied up to the anti-imp movement that basically think the US is the source of all problems in the world. As evidence by his stance on Syria and his cosying up to Putin.

Both were some eulogies in death, so I would cut him some slack - I didn't like the Chavez stuff, way too much praise, ohh progressive this & healthcare & what not! Castro stuff was okay, small praise & he admitted Castro made mistakes. Him gushing over Chavez was too much IMO. But atleast Chavez was somewhat democratic & won elections unlike Castro who ran a dictatorship.

He's probably too left IMO & beyond the "Socialist" Hamon but not a communist or a dictator. I also thought Hamon would be better !

[Shadows]

Melenchon was stupid to be the 1st major candidate to  withdraw from the 3rd debate, would have helped him get votes among a wider audience ! I think he realistically has to be within 2-3% of the Top 2 in the polls & then hope for a bigger turnout of his voters & expect Hamon voters to defect. Look there will be Hamon voters who wouldn't want to waste votes of a candidate who won't go into the Final 2 !

Can Melenchon touch or cross 20% in the next 8-9 days drawing from Macron/Le Pen voters as well, like he has been doing so far, with the Hamon+Melenchon vote increasing.

I think Le Pen will fall, Poutou did some damage to her among the working class voters she is targeting !

[Shadows]

Is this even debatable considering Le Pen is even more of a religious bigot than Trump, will ban all non-Christian symbols & headgear & they whole anti-semitic talks have started in her party again.

I mean Melenchon has problems, but Le Pen, seriously?

[Shadows]

Hamon voters needs to stop wasting their vote if we want to win this thing over the three undesirables. They are absolutely blowing this for us. How can they be so short-sighted.

Didn't you vote for Jill Stein?

Can you blame him when a fraud like Hillary was on the ticket for Dems? Never understood how someone so radically left with -8 odd Eco score can support a centrist like HRC, but anyways...

@ Thread - Le Pen had a core working class base as well many of whom are economically pretty left & she will lose some of those voters, the more she is exposed, I think Poutou did some damage to her as well. The higher the overall turnout, the worse it is for someone like Le Pen.

Having said I think Melenchon & Le Pen have the best chance of outperforming the polls as their base will be incredibly energized & Hamon the worst because voting for him is simply wasting a vote. Fillon/Melenchon are still 3% off Le Pen, pretty close & is this becomes 1-2%, all bets are off & it is a pure toss-up based on last minute voters & turnout !

[Shadows]

The fact that Macron is hanging on to a runoff by his fingernail tips just shows how weak the pro EU center-to-center-left is right now.  Considering he has practically no competition for his niche, he should probably be in the thirties, at least.

Macron is running as a complete upstart with no party organization and an overwhelming majority of voters having never heard of him before a couple of months ago. To be honest, in my opinion, there's no reason why he should be doing as well as he is.

Also, the last time a "Centrist pro-EU" candidate made it to the second round (not runoff) was 1981 with Giscard, although the comparison of their economic liberalism are somewhat different.

Considering he has practically no competition for his niche,

i am not sure if the EU topic is the most important point of this election inside of france.

Also, this is correct. The French are much more concerned with sclerotic growth and an "erosion of values," whatever that means.

True, none of the people I know are convinced of him - No1 knows what his policies are, very vague n stuff n he could totally govern differently, he has no party organization.

Fillon is worrying with his rise now, he is such a bad candidate he may actually lose to Le Pen with record low turnout with Le Pen's base motivated. Who wants to vote for people like Fillon anyways?