Canadian Election 2019

[Polkergeist]

Are the Greens in with a chance of picking up any PEI ridings given their performance at the provincial election?

[Polkergeist]

Scheer becomes PM if he can muster the numbers to vote down a Liberal Throne Speech or carry a no confidence motion.

In the Canadian convention, minor parties seem to avoid voting in these votes straight after an election.

It seems that only the NDP has committed to voting to keep the Conservatives out in such votes.

The Greens and Bloc have said that will work bill by bill with no deals of coalitions. This implies their MPs will not vote in a throne speech vote or no confidence motion.

Therefore if Con>Lib, but Lib+NDP>Con, Trudeau could try to stay in office, even if Lib+NDP<170.

[Polkergeist]

who ever "wins the most seats" will be treated as "the winner".

This is an important consideration for Trudeau, if he wishes to stay in office if Con>Lib, but Lib+NDP>Con.

He may judge that the Libs would take too much of a hit a subsequent election in such a situation, especially if Lib+NDP<170, and a new election could very well be sooner rather than later.