Mexican Elections 2017-18

[jaichind]

Watching the debate made me realize that El Bronco's logo is ... well a Bronco.

[ag]

Anaya was, by far, the best. But, of course, nobody will care.

[jaichind]

Anaya was, by far, the best. But, of course, nobody will care.

Well it is more like everyone attacked AMLO but I suspect with little impact since the attacks are just the same old attacks.  I recall back in 2006 part of the reason AMLO lost has large lead was due to him making ill-judged attacks on his opponents.  It seems he avoided this mistake this debate although there are two more to go.  During the debate the attacks on AMLO got so much that he responded just by holding up the results of the latest Reforma poll with him at 48%.   Not sure how that will play out but bragging about your poll numbers does not seem like a wise strategy although it did not seems to have hurt Trump back in the 2016 GOP primaries.   

[jaichind]

Being Calderón's wife clearly hurt Zavala,  I did not watch the entire debate by my impression is that over 50% of the questions raised to Zavala are all variations of "how are you going to different from Calderón on ..."

[jaichind]

In the debate AMLO claimed that 500 billion MXN (around $26 billion) are lost every year due to corruption which he promises to end.  This reminds me a lot of 2014 Indian election Modi claim that there are so much black money abroad that once he is in office he will get that money back which would amount to $2500 for every Indian citizen.  Clearly that did not take place once Modi came into office.

[ag]

Anaya was, by far, the best. But, of course, nobody will care.

Well it is more like everyone attacked AMLO but I suspect with little impact since the attacks are just the same old attacks.  

Well, they did not just attack AMLO, everybody attacked everybody. Anaya literally asked Meade if he would claim that he works for an honest president (he did not!), and what was the size of the "slice" of the pie he got from a fugitive ex-governor.

As for the attacks on AMLO being "old"... Well, yeah, AMLO has been in politics forever, and he is consistent. He consistently lies about the same things, consistently makes his subordinates steal money for himself, while claiming to be "honest", consistently claims everybody else is a crook, and consistently disparages and undermines Mexico's institutions. The specifics of attacks against him were, in fact, based on his current behaviour - but, yeah, they did sound old. Of course, he will be elected and will proceed to destroy Mexico in exactly the way he has been promising all along: like Trump. And, as with Trump, there will be no way anybody would be able to plead surprise.

[jaichind]

MXN falls almost 5% from middle of last week as the first debate seems to indicate that AMLO is very likely to be elected.  I guess the assumption is that some sort of ambush of AMLO or an AMLO mistake in the debate would throw him off course like 2006.  So far the market does not feel that took place and the price of MXN is reflecting that assessment. 

[ag]

MXN falls almost 5% from middle of last week as the first debate seems to indicate that AMLO is very likely to be elected.  I guess the assumption is that some sort of ambush of AMLO or an AMLO mistake in the debate would throw him off course like 2006.  So far the market does not feel that took place and the price of MXN is reflecting that assessment.  

Alas. This is AMLO's election to lose. The only thing that could prevent that, which does not directly depend on him making something stupid is consolidation of the opposition behind Anaya: and that is not happening. The future of North America are the two Trumps.

But Anaya did well in the debate. Just not well enough.

[jaichind]

Reforma poll on who won the debate

AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       34
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)           36
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)     10
Zavala (PAN rebel)                 5
El Bronco                              5

I guess all things equal some anti-AMLO votes might gather around Anaya as a result of the debate.  Most likely nowhere close to enough though.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Will the poor performance of Meade lead to the PRI suffering downballot?

[jaichind]

Will the poor performance of Meade lead to the PRI suffering downballot?

I was going to write about this.  If the polls are believed then the PRI is headed for a defeat similar as 2006 at the Presidential level.  But in 2006 the PRI defeat was somewhat less massive at the Legislative level and even less so at the gubernatorial level.   This time around it seems it is not just Madrazo is a poor candidate but the entire PRI brand is going down the drain.

[jaichind]

If I could vote I would vote Meade.  If polls show Meade behind Anaya the day before the election by more than 5% then I would tactically vote Anaya.  Most likely 2018 would be the first Mexico election since 1982 when the candidate I would vote for would not win the election.

[warandwar]

If I could vote I would vote Meade.  If polls show Meade behind Anaya the day before the election by more than 5% then I would tactically vote Anaya.  Most likely 2018 would be the first Mexico election since 1982 when the candidate I would vote for would not win the election.

You would have voted Cardenas in 1988?

[jaichind]

If I could vote I would vote Meade.  If polls show Meade behind Anaya the day before the election by more than 5% then I would tactically vote Anaya.  Most likely 2018 would be the first Mexico election since 1982 when the candidate I would vote for would not win the election.

You would have voted Cardenas in 1988?

Despite what they say I am not convinced that Cardenas would have won in 1988 without fraud which clearly did take place.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=215012.0

[ag]

If I could vote I would vote Meade.  If polls show Meade behind Anaya the day before the election by more than 5% then I would tactically vote Anaya.  Most likely 2018 would be the first Mexico election since 1982 when the candidate I would vote for would not win the election.

I, most likely, won't - unless, of course, Anaya is far behind Meade on the eve of the elections, in which case I would vote for anybody who is not AMLO and is not in the second place. Meade is a fine person and would be a great president, but certain things are simply not done. Anaya it has to be. Not that it matters: AMLO it will be.

[ag]

If I could vote I would vote Meade.  If polls show Meade behind Anaya the day before the election by more than 5% then I would tactically vote Anaya.  Most likely 2018 would be the first Mexico election since 1982 when the candidate I would vote for would not win the election.

You would have voted Cardenas in 1988?

I, probably, would have voted Clouthier back in 1988: that is, in the absence of proper polls. Had there been polls showing that Cardenas has a chance I would have, of course, voted for him.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

If I could vote I would vote Meade.  If polls show Meade behind Anaya the day before the election by more than 5% then I would tactically vote Anaya.  Most likely 2018 would be the first Mexico election since 1982 when the candidate I would vote for would not win the election.

I, most likely, won't - unless, of course, Anaya is far behind Meade on the eve of the elections, in which case I would vote for anybody who is not AMLO and is not in the second place. Meade is a fine person and would be a great president, but certain things are simply not done. Anaya it has to be. Not that it matters: AMLO it will be.

never thought I'd be hearing you praise the PRI candidate!

[ag]

If I could vote I would vote Meade.  If polls show Meade behind Anaya the day before the election by more than 5% then I would tactically vote Anaya.  Most likely 2018 would be the first Mexico election since 1982 when the candidate I would vote for would not win the election.

I, most likely, won't - unless, of course, Anaya is far behind Meade on the eve of the elections, in which case I would vote for anybody who is not AMLO and is not in the second place. Meade is a fine person and would be a great president, but certain things are simply not done. Anaya it has to be. Not that it matters: AMLO it will be.

never thought I'd be hearing you praise the PRI candidate!

Look, had he ran from PAN (which he could have done), I would have thought of him as the best thing since condensed milk (and I do have a sweet tooth). He is supremely competent, reasonably personally honest (has not gotten appreciably richer than he was before serving for 10 years in cabinet-level positions), comes from a background I can very much identify with and is ideologically my near brother. He would be my dream candidate: I'd be singing him highest praises imaginable. Alas, he chose the wrong crowd: he is a horrible fit with PRI (the party machine dislikes him), but he has to be held responsible for their sins. Anaya it has to be.

[jaichind]

One thing I have noticed is the surge of investment banking research reports from those that cover Mexican equities or MXN right after the debate freaking out over the prospect of AMLO winning.  What is funny about this is that AMLO's polling has been there in the lead for a while now.  It just seems that the research arms that cover these Mexican financial instruments just figured that AMLO will implode at the debate given that he lost in 2006 and 2012 and when that did not happen it dawned on them that AMLO might and will most likely win.

[Zinneke]

Did Bronco seriously advocate cutting off someone's hand if they're caught stealing?

[jaichind]

Did Bronco seriously advocate cutting off someone's hand if they're caught stealing?

Yes he also produced a bullet in the debate and held it up as he spoke of a son he said he had lost to organized crime.

[Oryxslayer]

Did Bronco seriously advocate cutting off someone's hand if they're caught stealing?

If it worked for the Byzantines...

[jaichind]

Did Bronco seriously advocate cutting off someone's hand if they're caught stealing?

If it worked for the Byzantines...

I think the Quran mentions something like this as well.  We Chinese had something like this during the Chin and Han dynasty as well.

[warandwar]

[ag]

Actually, it is the AMLO voters who need a US or another additional passport: they will not want to live in Mexico he will create. Nor, of course, will the rest of us.

Poor North America. Two Trumps at the same time. Canada is the last remaining hope of the continent!