Bush probably narrowly wins re election as Foreign Policy would be the dominant issue. Iraq in 1992 would likely resemble Iraq of 2004 in a sense that the situation is going sour, but not sour enough to damage Bush, there would be enough of a "let's not change horses midstream" mentality among enough people for Bush to narrowly hold on. That said, Iraq would likely see similar (though likely not as bad with a steadier hand at the helm) chaos through the mid 90s like it did from 2005-2007 OTL, and thus I think the Democrats would ride this to victory in 1994 and 1996.
There was a recession in 92 and going past 12 years of republicans rule would be quite difficult to hold on. the 2004 scenario doesnt apply to 92 as there was no 9/11 to keep people continuing to support the war to fight terrorism or just become more conservative overall
