Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

We completed our first poll of Georgia since right before the runoffs today. Caveat that the poll is of registered voters, not a likely voter model. Broad generalities, as always:

-Abrams is more popular today than she has ever been in any of our polling, though not by a huge amount (opinion of her has been baked in for a while).

-Kemp has made up a good chunk of lost ground among Republicans, but still faces a tough road. We actually found that his spat with Trump improved his numbers with independents and softer Democrats...the voting/elections bill saga completely reversed that.

-For the first time ever in our Georgia polling, a plurality of respondents favor increased gun control.

-By a wide margin, a plurality say that "the recent increased competitiveness of Georgia's statewide elections" is a good thing for the state, but only a plurality. Most Republicans/right-leaning independents say it is neither a good nor bad thing for the state.

-Georgians are divided three ways on whether or not the new law "mostly has to do with voting rights" or "mostly has to do with election administration" or "has to do with both voting rights and election administration." Majorities say the new law will make it harder to vote, but also say it will make it easier to conduct elections. Potentially a tricky spot for Dems.

-Young Republicans (under age 40, but more specifically under age 30) continue to be a major issue for the Georgia GOP. They show very little excitement about their elected officials at every level, and are starting to split with them on culture war issues. Important to remember that many of them grew up in rapidly diversifying suburban areas and are moving leftward on issues like gay rights, racial justice (particularly in the criminal justice reform/felons' voting rights vein), weed, and now even guns as well. Most of them remain cool towards Dem leaders as well, but decreased excitement and enthusiasm among this group will always hurt Republicans first.

Happy to have played a part in #6

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I wish we didn't have to go on a wild goose chase for which site has the fastest reporting for each state. It's annoying as f**k.

Regardless, Hice just needs to cut SoS by 2%. With the ED vote that's doable.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/AmoneyResists/status/1565134290366730242

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/staceyabrams/status/1562907069979639810?cxt=HHwWhICqseLsx7Ar...

This is the worst ad ever! /s

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Personally, consider me skeptical about the Dobbs effect in GA compared to the ways that it is likely to impact other states. We could see a surge in presidential voters in GA who didn't vote in 2018 and wouldn't have in 2022 otherwise (particularly on the D side - which may be enough, mind you!), but combine this with AVR and you're not likely to see some huge shift in new registrations and the like that wouldn't have happened otherwise.

Also, obligatory "average D support for abortion in GA is lower than D support nationally (i.e. correlation to black vote share)" & "probably just about any defection-capable R voter already budged in 2018 and/or 2020; if Abrams was hanging onto all of them, Kemp would already be behind in polling in this celebrated post-Dobbs environment etc". In other words, don't project overwhelmingly white D electoral behavior onto substantially minority D voting behavior.

Yes, but Abrams has the Black vote, and if she doesn't, Warnock is insanely popular with the socially moderate more religious crowd.

Also, contraception is much different than abortion.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1570790548700823555

Why would Raphael Warnock be popular with older, socially moderate Black voters? The reason escapes me.

In all seriousness that's very good news.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1570790548700823555

Why would Raphael Warnock be popular with older, socially moderate Black voters? The reason escapes me.

In all seriousness that's very good news.

Why wouldn’t they? Even if they’re 60 they reminder the end of the civil rights movement and the start of integration. They know what racism in America looks like. Not to mention Warnock is a pastor and native lifelong Georgian who literally preaches at King’s church. My mom (not black) is in her late 50s and has memories of integration of schools and segregated movie theaters. You’re not gonna fool people by having a black man sing the same song as white supremacists

That was sarcastic. Obv Warnock will be popular with older Black folks.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

If Kemp loses, which I consider unlikely, it will not be because Trump voters failed to turn out, but rather due to a massive turnout overperformance of women and young voters in response to the Dobbs decision.  And if this occurs, no other Republican would conceivably have won; Kemp was their best possible candidate.

I disagree. If you look at the recent Special Elections: It wasn't about Dobbs in NY-19. It was about Molinaro not getting the Turnout he needed in his Home Base while Ryan overperformed in his.

Republicans have a Turnout Problem when Trump is not on the Ballot. That's why Trump is going around the Country helping Republican Candidates.

So, Ryan just randomly overperformed? There has been no heavily documented shift in special election results post-Dobbs?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Shane Hazel has done more for Democratic Senate prospects two years ago than the DSCC.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Is this good or bad?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

How many of these registered Dems are demosaurs who never bothered to change their registration?

Zero.  Georgia does not have party registration.

God I'm a moron. Somehow I transposed white/black into R/D.

That said what % of the total vote is Dem (including the dinosaurs) would be interesting.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Day 13 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 100,644 voters cast ballots Saturday, for a grand total of 1,634,319 votes.

Breakdown of Saturday's voters:

Code:

54099 White 53.75%
30613 Black 30.42%
2807         Asian 2.79%
2541 Latino 2.52%
10584 Other 10.52%

56571 Female 56.21%
43746 Male        43.47% 
327          Other         0.32%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

940654 White 57.56%
490063 Black 29.99%
27321 Asian 1.67%
26433       Latino 1.62%
149848 Other 9.16%

899901 Female 55.06%
731141 Male        44.74% 
3277        Other 0.20%

I'm going to start posting my projections of what I believe the two-way EV looks like. Unfortunately, I do not have statewide voter file access this year, which otherwise would give me greater certainty in how the vote breaks down, but I have decent confidence that these figures are within the proverbial ballpark.

Estimated Georgia EV Composition:
57.81% D (944,800)
42.19% R (689,519)
Net Margin: D+255279

Is this good or bad?