Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Pericles]

Shane Hazel has done more for Democratic Senate prospects two years ago than the DSCC.

Lol he's the hero that sent Perdue to a runoff, amazing! It's not impossible the same thing happens to Kemp.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1582458670507442176

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

By now the map is replicating the blue wall anyways like it was always gonna be lesson number 1 if Biden is polling 51/47 it's the same 303 map anyways he was never at 33/61 the lowest was 41 in Rassy polls

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1582881910316945409

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1582458670507442176

FOX News using the word "News"?

[Adam Griffin]

Day 3 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 142,827 voters cast ballots yesterday, for a grand total of 434,567 votes.

Breakdown of Wednesday's voters:

Code:

81756	White	57.24%
44686	Black	31.29%
1865 	Latino	1.31%
1811	        Asian	1.27%
12709	Other	8.89%

77292	Female	54.01%
64752	Male	        45.25%	
1053	        Other	0.74%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

235263	White	54.14%
149167	Black	34.33%
5781	        Latino	1.33%
5355	        Asian	1.23%
39001	Other	8.97%

231073	Female	53.17%
201043	Male	        46.26%	
2451	        Other	0.57%

[Adam Griffin]

Day 4 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 139,031 voters cast ballots yesterday, for a grand total of 573,598 votes.

Breakdown of Thursday's voters:

Code:

81067	White	58.31%
41862	Black	30.11%
1878 	Latino	1.35%
1878         Asian	1.35%
12346	Other	8.88%

76381	Female	54.94%
61798	Male	        44.45%	
852           Other	0.61%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

316330	White	55.15%
191029	Black	33.30%
7659	        Latino	1.34%
7233	        Asian	1.26%
51347	Other	8.95%

307454	Female	53.60%
262841	Male	        45.82%	
3303	        Other	0.58%

[Adam Griffin]

Day 5 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 155,455 voters cast ballots Friday, for a grand total of 729,053 votes.

Breakdown of Friday's voters:

Code:

91151	White	58.63%
47343	Black	30.45%
2516 	Latino	1.62%
2490         Asian	1.61%
11955	Other	7.69%

87168	Female	55.20%
70542	Male	        44.67%	
196          Other         0.13%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

407481	White	55.89%
238372	Black	32.70%
10175        Latino	1.40%
9723	        Asian	1.33%
63302	Other	8.68%

394622	Female	54.13%
333383	Male	        45.73%	
1048	        Other	0.14%

[Adam Griffin]

After 5 days of EV, we seem to be somewhat stabilizing in terms of racial breakdowns - though there will continue to be flux over the next two weeks, which could amount to a substantial shift yet.

2022 Day 5 total EV compared to Day 5 total EV in:

2018, % of Electorate
+3 Black
-7 White*
+1 Female
-2 65 & up

2020, % of Electorate
+2 Black
-1 White
+2 Male
+17 65 & up

My estimates suggest the total EV at this point is around 4 points more Democratic than 2018 and 1 point more Republican than 2020 (margin) when taking an average of support levels for these four groups in 2018 & 2020.

And just for reference, the final EV figures (ABM + AIP) for the past three elections:

2021 Warnock   +13.76
2020 Biden       +5.73
2018 Abrams    +1.61

*I would take the white shift with a grain of salt, given the ever-increase of voters being labeled as "other/unknown" when first registering as opposed to their actual race or ethnicity. I imagine the real number when assigning everybody properly is probably 4-5 points less white than 2018 rather than 7-8


I expect today (Saturday) to see a surge in both youth and non-white participation. I would not be surprised to see black voters comprise 35% of today's electorate & the 65+ crowd comprising 25% or less. However, there may be some amelioration of this trend since Georgia now offers two statewide guaranteed Saturdays of early voting instead of the previous 1 Saturday (which would have been next week, at the end of Week 2).

In case you want to see the composition of the two main groups each day (both individually and cumulatively), here are some charts:

Individual Days:



Cumulative:

[Adam Griffin]

Day 6 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 87,831 voters cast ballots Saturday, for a grand total of 816,884 votes.

Not quite as black as I thought was possible (but offset by Latino, Asian and "other" voters on the other end of things), and below 20% senior citizens (though still above 2018/20 levels). The explicitly-black share of total EVs actually still dropped by 0.1 points - though when sorting through the other/unknowns, I doubt it did in reality.

Breakdown of Saturday's voters:

Code:

46170	White	52.57%
28153	Black	32.05%
2260         Asian	2.57%
2067 	Latino	2.35%
9181 	Other	10.46%

48675	Female	55.42%
38909	Male	        44.30%	
247          Other         0.28%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

453651	White	55.53%
266525	Black	32.63%
12242       Latino	1.50%
11983	Asian	1.47%
72483	Other	8.87%

443297	Female	54.27%
372292	Male	        45.57%	
1295	        Other	0.16%

[Adam Griffin]

Just for posterity, here are the listed demographic breakdowns for 2016, 2018, 2020 and 2021 - along with my adjusted figures using available data to assign the SoS "Unknown/Other" categories into their respective groups. I've also added a link for this chart to the OP for future reference, in case any of us forget where this is in the future:

[Adam Griffin]

Day 7 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 20,744 voters cast ballots Saturday, for a grand total of 837,628 votes.

Breakdown of Sunday's voters:

Code:

8586 	White	41.39%
8561 	Black	41.27%
739          Asian	        3.56%
509 	       Latino	2.45%
2349 	Other	11.33%

12026	Female	57.97%
8639 	Male	        41.65%	
79            Other         0.38%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

462237	White	55.18%
275086	Black	32.84%
12751       Latino	1.52%
12722	Asian	1.52%
74832	Other	8.94%

455323	Female	54.36%
380931	Male	        45.48%	
1374	        Other	0.16%

[GeorgiaModerate]

Adam, do you have the F/M breakdown from the last few cycles like your race breakdown chart above?

[Adam Griffin]

Adam, do you have the F/M breakdown from the last few cycles like your race breakdown chart above?

I'll have to go back and make that data at some point soon - should've done it while I was digging through the labyrinth that is the Georgia turnout file data.

Not necessarily what you're asking for, but I can tell you that as of Friday, 2022 EV was 1 point more female than 2018 EV and 2 points more male than 2020 EV (comparing both past cycles to their Day 5 EV totals).

[Adam Griffin]

Alright, here is the above chart with gender for each year added:

[Adam Griffin]

Here's a map showing turnout as of Sunday by county - as a share of "% of '18" as shown by Georgia Votes (still not entirely clear what this is a measurement of, as the numbers don't line up with total 2018 EV or 2018 EV on this comparable day). Colors are in gradients of 10 points (the lightest shade is <30% & the darkest shade is >100%).

DRA data available here.



I also thought it'd be interesting to see how each grouping of counties compares to their presidential margins in 2020. This is what it shows:



Other than Athens-Clarke & Richmond skewing the data by being sub-30%, there's a fairly clear trend (though Bibb and Dougherty being in the 40s at the moment breaks things a tad as well; the remainder of the category was Trump +39).

[Inmate Trump]

Here's a map showing turnout as of Sunday by county - as a share of "% of '18" as shown by Georgia Votes (still not entirely clear what this is a measurement of, as the numbers don't line up with total 2018 EV or 2018 EV on this comparable day). Colors are in gradients of 10 points (the lightest shade is <30% & the darkest shade is >100%).

DRA data available here.



I also thought it'd be interesting to see how each grouping of counties compares to their presidential margins in 2020. This is what it shows:



Other than Athens-Clarke & Richmond skewing the data by being sub-30%, there's a fairly clear trend (though Bibb and Dougherty being in the 40s at the moment breaks things a tad as well; the remainder of the category was Trump +39).

I'm stupid, can you help me understand what this means? Good for Dems/bad for Dems?

[Adam Griffin]

Day 8 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 148,968 voters cast ballots Monday, for a grand total of 986,596 votes.

Breakdown of Monday's voters:

Code:

89002 	White	59.75%
41947 	Black	28.16%
2276         Asian	1.53%
2220 	Latino	1.49%
13523 	Other	9.07%

82125	Female	55.13%
66527 	Male	        44.66%	
316          Other         0.21%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

551239	White	55.87%
317033	Black	32.13%
14971       Latino	1.52%
14998	Asian	1.52%
88355	Other	8.96%

537448	Female	54.47%
447458	Male	        45.35%	
1690	        Other	0.18%

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Is this good or bad?

[Adam Griffin]

Is this good or bad?

The worst day so far this year in terms of black EV share, but still better than 10 out of the 15 EV weekdays in 2018.

The days in 2018 that had statistically larger black turnout: the final 5 weekdays of EV.

The only other day that compares is Day 8 in 2018 (i.e. yesterday's analog), where in-person turnout was 28.4% black. That 2018 figure excludes returned ABMs, however, whereas my 2022 figure includes them - and in 2018, I'd wager the earlier-returned ABM electorate was whiter than the in-person and/or late-arriving ABM shares, meaning the total black share for that day might have still been slightly lower than yesterday's.

[Adam Griffin]

I'm stupid, can you help me understand what this means? Good for Dems/bad for Dems?

Honestly, after I finished it, I was no longer sure exactly what the GA Votes website category of "% of '18" was representing there, because every figure I checked with 2018 data didn't line up with the listed percentages. I'm sure I overlooked something.

However, I am sure it is related in some way to the strength of 2022 EV turnout compared to 2018 in some way and therefore all counties should be reflective of that in some fashion. In essence, I believe it's showing some metric of how high EV turnout is compared to 2018: the darker the county, the better it is performing within that metric.

[Adam Griffin]

So here is (as of Sunday's EV) a map showing returned mail ballots as a percentage of mail applications by county.

Regardless of what Republicans may think of voting by mail, those who have been are clearly returning their ballots far more expediently than Democrats.

[Adam Griffin]

Day 9 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 136,733 voters cast ballots Tuesday, for a grand total of 1,123,329 votes.

Breakdown of Tuesday's voters:

Code:

84975 	White	62.15%
35234 	Black	25.77%
2170         Asian	1.59%
2037 	Latino	1.49%
12317 	Other	9.00%

76062	Female	55.63%
60384 	Male	        44.16%	
287          Other         0.21%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

636214	White	56.64%
352267	Black	31.36%
17168	Asian	1.53%
17008       Latino	1.51%
100672	Other	8.96%

613510	Female	54.62%
507842	Male	        45.21%	
1977	        Other	0.17%

[Adam Griffin]

I've been projecting that we will see 2.8-3.0m early votes cast in Georgia & an additional 1.2-1.6m Election Day votes, for an average total of 4.3m votes.

As of Tuesday, GA's raw in-person early vote is 87% of what it was on the same day (EV Day 9) in 2020. If those EV proportions remain steady and are reflected in ED as well, that points to an electorate of 4.35m voters. That's just a tad shy of the turnout during last year's Senate runoffs.

[Adam Griffin]

EV gender breakdown (as of Tuesday):