Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[GALeftist]

I have no idea whether this will move the needle but people here are really pissed about music midtown fwiw. I do think the Abrams campaign is doing a good job of handling it and it's a good reminder that Kemp isn't some harmless conservative.

[wbrocks67]

For the first time, it feels like the Abrams campaign is firing on all cylinders are out for blood the last few days. Kemp's campaign seems to be caught flat footed by it all.

[wesmoorenerd]

I've been pretty confident that Kemp is going to win for most of the cycle and I still think that, but this is one of the few races (if not basically the only race) that the Democrats have a fair bit of room to improve in.

[wbrocks67]

The mess continues. Why is Kemp being so silent during all of this? He has not hit back at Abrams or any of these govs at all.

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1555154080128831488

[Buzz]

This is a nothing burger.  Nobody is even talking about it here

[wbrocks67]

This is a nothing burger.  Nobody is even talking about it here

a gigantic music festival that would bring jobs and $$ to GA is now kaput and "nobody is even talking about it here"? sure jan

[GALeftist]

This is a nothing burger.  Nobody is even talking about it here

My circle probably skews somewhat younger than yours, but music midtown has always been a big deal here. This is definitely on people's radar in my experience.

[wbrocks67]

Objectively, this is a terrible response. Not to mention the irony of bringing up gas prices when they've been falling nearly $1 in the last 50 days.

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1555216508091043840

[Buzz]

This is a nothing burger.  Nobody is even talking about it here

a gigantic music festival that would bring jobs and $$ to GA is now kaput and "nobody is even talking about it here"? sure jan

correct.  I haven’t heard anybody say a thing about it.  It will be completely forgotten in a couple weeks

[skbl17]

In other news:

https://twitter.com/SellsBryan/status/1555539790422052865

I do think this will be appealed, but it's unusual that we elect district-based commissioners on a statewide basis. For the record, the Commission has had a GOP monopoly (5-0) since 2006.

Based on the current district map, I always thought the breakdown in a purely district-based system would be 4-1 R (district 3, which is Fulton, DeKalb, Clayton, and Rockdale counties, would be something like D+40-45), but I was surprised to learn Warnock actually carried district 2 (50.85% D) and came within 5 points in district 5 (52% R). You could elect 2 Dems on the current map (in the right conditions, that is; there's the political environment and down-ballot dropoff to worry about).

[Adam Griffin]

In other news:

https://twitter.com/SellsBryan/status/1555539790422052865

I do think this will be appealed, but it's unusual that we elect district-based commissioners on a statewide basis. For the record, the Commission has had a GOP monopoly (5-0) since 2006.

Based on the current district map, I always thought the breakdown in a purely district-based system would be 4-1 R (district 3, which is Fulton, DeKalb, Clayton, and Rockdale counties, would be something like D+40-45), but I was surprised to learn Warnock actually carried district 2 (50.85% D) and came within 5 points in district 5 (52% R). You could elect 2 Dems on the current map (in the right conditions, that is; there's the political environment and down-ballot dropoff to worry about).

"This is a BFD", in the words of Biden. I never really understood how at-large systems (with district residency requirements) could still exist statewide in a place like GA (given they've been shut down in numerous counties with minority populations smaller than the state), but we'll see.

[Adam Griffin]

^^^ Not sure if splitting counties is allowed under current PSC district rules (or how equal in population they have to be; I assumed relatively so in the latter case), but alas: I split Dekalb here. This is a "fair" map overall (2 R, 2 D, 1 swing; 1 plurality-black district). The swing district was won by Trump by 0.2 points in 2020.




Without county splits, it's fairly difficult to draw 2 coherent majority/plurality-BVAP districts in the state. Even with a handful of county splits, the best I could do on the fly was one majority-BVAP (51%; Biden +20) & one plurality-BVAP (47%; Biden +42), with the "swing district" being 18% BVAP & Trump +6 (less black than the 31% BVAP district Trump won by 19 points).


Truthfully, I think this is a prime example of where the VRA tends to shoot Democrats and minority representation in the foot, because if majority-black district(s) are required, it will relegate the PSC to a likely permanent 3R-2D status (as opposed to a majority-D, heavily black-influenced electoral system in the near future under the status quo).

[Podgy the Bear]

This is a nothing burger.  Nobody is even talking about it here

Either you are very old, you live in Bainbridge, and/or you are into classical or country gospel music.  Nothing wrong with any of that, but in suburban Atlanta (where I live and work), there is a lot of talk about it because of the loss of business.  And it keeps the gun issue going--where concealed carry just doesn't resonate with much of the urban/suburban population.

[Adam Griffin]

I haven't heard anything about it locally, but I'm 100 miles from Atlanta. Obviously I've heard about the event consistently in the past and understand how big of a thing it is, however.

Given almost half (47%) of Georgia lives within 30 miles of downtown Atlanta, I can definitely see plenty of people being aware or personally impacted. Hundreds of thousands of people attended it annually in the past.

[ProgressiveModerate]

^^^ Not sure if splitting counties is allowed under current PSC district rules (or how equal in population they have to be; I assumed relatively so in the latter case), but alas: I split Dekalb here. This is a "fair" map overall (2 R, 2 D, 1 swing; 1 plurality-black district). The swing district was won by Trump by 0.2 points in 2020.




Without county splits, it's fairly difficult to draw 2 coherent majority/plurality-BVAP districts in the state. Even with a handful of county splits, the best I could do on the fly was one majority-BVAP (51%; Biden +20) & one plurality-BVAP (47%; Biden +42), with the "swing district" being 18% BVAP & Trump +6 (less black than the 31% BVAP district Trump won by 19 points).


Truthfully, I think this is a prime example of where the VRA tends to shoot Democrats and minority representation in the foot, because if majority-black district(s) are required, it will relegate the PSC to a likely permanent 3R-2D status (as opposed to a majority-D, heavily black-influenced electoral system in the near future under the status quo).

As long as a district is functionally minority, it is considered a VRA district and 40% of districts is greater than the 30% black population in the state.

Imo, the best thing to do would be something akin to your map but make a safe black seat in South/West Atlanta and a more diverse black plurality seat in east Atlanta that includes Gwinnett.

[ProgressiveModerate]

If I were in charge and could county split, this is how I would draw the map. The downtown Atlanta seat is obviously majority black and the swing seat in the Southwest would elect a black D if it elected a D. The swingier Altanta seat is plurality white but minority coalition having a notable Hispanic and Asian population. This map could give either side up to a 4-1 majority on the board, and the median seat would be Biden + 1 which overall seems pretty fair

[wbrocks67]

Abrams out with an ad hitting Kemp on the midtown cancellation

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1556596085132472320

[skbl17]

In other news:

https://twitter.com/SellsBryan/status/1555539790422052865

I do think this will be appealed, but it's unusual that we elect district-based commissioners on a statewide basis. For the record, the Commission has had a GOP monopoly (5-0) since 2006.

Based on the current district map, I always thought the breakdown in a purely district-based system would be 4-1 R (district 3, which is Fulton, DeKalb, Clayton, and Rockdale counties, would be something like D+40-45), but I was surprised to learn Warnock actually carried district 2 (50.85% D) and came within 5 points in district 5 (52% R). You could elect 2 Dems on the current map (in the right conditions, that is; there's the political environment and down-ballot dropoff to worry about).

As expected, the ruling is being appealed.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Maybe Abrams needs to rebrand to the way Olawakandi refers to her in his signature;

GOV.Miz.Stacy A.

I think it'd look great on yard signs and inject some much needed enthusiasim into her candidacy.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Abrams has a much better chance than DeJear whom is down16 PTS

[coloradocowboi]

Maybe Abrams needs to rebrand to the way Olawakandi refers to her in his signature;

GOV.Miz.Stacy A.

I think it'd look great on yard signs and inject some much needed enthusiasim into her candidacy.

Love it

[windjammer]

Out of curiosity,
How are the GA senate race and the GA Gubernatorial race looking?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Out of curiosity,
How are the GA senate race and the GA Gubernatorial race looking?

Senate: Walker is a terrible candidate, while Warnock is a good one.  Lean D. 

Gov: Both are good candidates, but Kemp is a popular incumbent.  Lean R (perhaps close to Likely R).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The fact this race is tied price Cook incorrectly moved a GA Runoffs to Lean R it's still Tossup that's what I say about ratings, D's can overperform ratings

[Adam Griffin]

Has Abrams finally realized one of the weakest links in her electoral chain from 2018, and is trying to address it? Hopefully so!

Stacey Abrams: ‘If Black men vote for me, I’ll win Georgia.’

An Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll last month showed Abrams underperforming with Black voters, with about 80% of the vote, and significantly trailing Gov. Brian Kemp among male voters, 57% to 33%.

...

Abrams’ performance among Black men, in particular, is one reason she’s lagging behind Kemp in public and internal surveys. That’s a metric she and her campaign are working to change in the months ahead.

Been talking about this for years: in the months following the 2018 election, her campaign tried to act as if she achieved some unprecedented level of support % among black voters across the board (patently false with some simple precinct analysis); the reality was that she did worse with black men than any prominent statewide candidate in modern Georgia history (worse than Jason Carter & worse than Hillary Clinton). Keep in mind that historically, black women make up 60%+ of black voters in Georgia, so perhaps they just ignored this dynamic prior. If she had held Carter's share of the vote among black men, she possibly would be running for re-election right now (via a runoff win, but still).

I don't know how much there is to be said about negative stereotypes and the supposed notion that black men don't want to "take orders" from black women, but it was peculiar how in a Democratic surge election, black men were one of only like 2 major groups (along with rurals) that swung R. She definitely lost immense ground with black rural men in 2018 (if not for the above reason, then my next suspicion would be her past positions on guns; not every black person lives in urban GA, after all).

I do know in my heart of hearts that, overall, if Abrams-18 had just taken the position of every other recent gubernatorial nominee in GA on guns and confederate monuments (i.e. "duck and dodge"), she'd be the current Governor of Georgia. She set a wildfire across (particularly white) rural GA and it absolutely cost her in the end.