Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[NewYorkExpress]

I'd rate the primary as Lean Purude.

He's a much stronger candidate than Vernon Jones, and that's probably all that's needed to defeat Kemp.

As for the General, I think Abrams is in a tossup race against either Purdue or Kemp. Georgia is relatively immune to national trends, and Abrams is a very strong candidate, but a runoff doesn't help her, unlike with Raphael Warnock, where a runoff neither helps nor hurts him (and might even slightly help him, depending on which Republican he faces).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's Lean R both of them until we see a Traggy poll Biden Approvals are 46/58 let's remember Warnock and Ossoff only won by 85K votes not but six pts like all the polls said except Traggy

Traggy had it 51/49 and all the other polls had them landslide, and WARNOCK ran on 2K checks there aren't anymore UNI checks

[Kung Fu Kenny]

Pretty funny that Kemp won in 2018 by (probably) stealing the election and now is going to lose in 2022 for being too soft on stealing elections

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pretty funny that Kemp won in 2018 by (probably) stealing the election and now is going to lose in 2022 for being too soft on stealing elections

You know there hasn't been 1 poll with Abrams in it, don't underestimate the Rs in this race Biden and Warnock win it by 50 K votes against whom Kelly Loeffler lame

This race will take shape in Oct 22 the Rs have the edge now without VR AZ, GA are our weakest seats because of the 278 not 304 blue wall with PA, WI, MI and VA

Biden is at 46/52 Approvals and he won 304 50/45

[JMT]

Here’s the official announcement:

https://twitter.com/perduesenate/status/1467867767281831938?s=21

[Oryxslayer]

That's a bold move, blaming your loss on your future primary opponent.

[Kung Fu Kenny]

Only David Perdue could be both unhinged and boring in the same ad.

Also, his most recent tweets before this announcement video was a beef with Lt. Governor Geoff Duncan:

https://twitter.com/GeoffDuncanGA/status/1461043407271469065?s=20

Truly deranged stuff.

[Sir Mohamed]

R primary will go to a Perdue vs. Kemp runoff, and the latter will obviously win. GE is Tilt R due to the national environment. Still the Dems best possible pickup beyond MA and MD.

Pretty funny that Kemp won in 2018 by (probably) stealing the election and now is going to lose in 2022 for being too soft on stealing elections

You know there hasn't been 1 poll with Abrams in it, don't underestimate the Rs in this race Biden and Warnock win it by 50 K votes against whom Kelly Loeffler lame

This race will take shape in Oct 22 the Rs have the edge now without VR AZ, GA are our weakest seats because of the 278 not 304 blue wall with PA, WI, MI and VA

Biden is at 46/52 Approvals and he won 304 50/45

Its still 304 map, election in 1000 days. OC love to be presumptuous and think Rs have the WH in the bag along with Election Guy

[wbrocks67]

Perdue is unhinged

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1467871303311015944

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/kristin__wilson/status/1467879916830138384

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/nytnickc/status/1467917704338288647?s=21

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/nytnickc/status/1467917704338288647?s=21

No complete and total endorsement? Sad!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He lost the race he was supposed to win GA SEN 2020

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Perdue is unhinged

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1467871303311015944

The Republican Party is going to destroy our democracy for the sole reason of pleasing Donald Trump. I hate it here.

[President Johnson]

Perdue is unhinged

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1467871303311015944

The Republican Party is going to destroy our democracy for the sole reason of pleasing Donald Trump. I hate it here.

It's not just to please the God Emperor, they're also doing it for themselves because they think their agenda is too unpopular on most issues.

[Ferguson97]

GOP Primary: Lean Perdue.

Dem Primary: Titanium Safe Abrams.

General: Tossup/Tilt Abrams.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/nytnickc/status/1467917704338288647?s=21

No complete and total endorsement? Sad!

I guess I spoke too soon!

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1468014168024436739?s=21

[JMT]

Not that it would make much of a difference, but does anyone think Kelly Loeffler will make an endorsement in the Governor's race? I doubt she will; Kemp appointed her to the Senate, but she also served with David Perdue. If she did endorse, I imagine she'd endorse Kemp (as a thank you for the Senate appointment), but I imagine she won't want to anger the Trump base (or offend Perdue), so my guess is that she declines to endorse anyone. Regardless, this probably puts her in an uncomfortable position.

Curious to see what people think about this.

[Continential]

I'd rate the primary as Lean Purude.

He's a much stronger candidate than Vernon Jones, and that's probably all that's needed to defeat Kemp.

As for the General, I think Abrams is in a tossup race against either Purdue or Kemp. Georgia is relatively immune to national trends, and Abrams is a very strong candidate, but a runoff doesn't help her, unlike with Raphael Warnock, where a runoff neither helps nor hurts him (and might even slightly help him, depending on which Republican he faces).

"Purude"

[OneJ]

The Georgia GOP must be deeply troubled to have this sort of primary. They can't rely on the national environment here as much as other states thanks to this state's inelasticity/tendency to not closely follow the national environment and that the state's clearly getting bluer by the minute. Just this year alone Democrats managed to flip a good amount of seats not even counting the Senate seats the iconic duo of Ossoff and Warnock flipped.

Kemp would definitely be the underdog against Abrams for reasons that I'm sure don't need to be explained. While I don't see Perdue as particularly bad candidate, he's more of a generic R which I'd imagine won't be enough.

In the end, regardless of whether it's Kemp or Perdue, I think Abrams has the advantage.

[ElectionsGuy]

People are really overestimating Abrams here.

[politicallefty]

I think it's also worth noting that gubernatorial elections don't necessarily track the same as the national environment. Even in strong wave midterms, there's usually stuff for both parties. There is 2006, where Republicans didn't gain any governorships, but Democratic gains were somewhat underwhelming and reserved mostly to the low-hanging fruit. 1994 is probably the closest to a complete wipeout for Democrats. On the other hand, you have a strong Democratic year like 1986, but Democrats end up losing net 8 governorships (although Democrats had 34 governors at the time). Even more interesting is 2002, where 20 governorships changed parties.

Ultimately though, Georgia is a highly polarized state. I think what Stacey Abrams offers is enthusiasm for Democrats. I feel she's a genuinely exciting candidate for Democrats to get behind and the coalition to victory in the state is there now. The suburbs are hard to predict, but the key to victory in Georgia is to really juice minority turnout. It'll be especially interesting with her sharing the ballot with Senator Warnock. No one is going to run away with either race and that's something we all seem to recognize. I think it's far too soon to rate this race as anything other than a true toss-up.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Election Guy thinks the RS have this Election sewh up, if DS don't win in 22 the RS are gonna have a field day in 24

Having said that we can endorse candidates if they lose, a blue wave is much more likely than a red wave, it's a Neutral not red Environment and Biden won't be  stuck in the mid 40s come Nov 22

[Buzz]

Voting for Kemp, and a lot of my fellow republicans are doing the same. Lean Kemp

[Buzz]

David Perdue can f all the way off with his nonsense and why he’s running.  Kemp did not need to be primaried and it will hurt both in the long run.