How many House seats will Democrats gain in 2012?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Is it safe to assume that most of the seats that Democrats gain will be those outside the South? 

Yes. Outside of maybe Arkansas, I doubt the Democrats will see a single gain in the South (not counting Florida as part of the South).

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Is it safe to assume that most of the seats that Democrats gain will be those outside the South? 

Yes. Outside of maybe Arkansas, I doubt the Democrats will see a single gain in the South (not counting Florida as part of the South).

How about Virginia?
They could also gain seats in Alabama and South Carolina if the DOJ insists for a second VRA seat, but that's a big if.

At the beginning of the year I'd say Democrats would gain around 15 seats. But with Republican's popularity sinking fast and the Ryan budget, I could see them gaining 20-25 and retaking narrowly the House.

Oh yeah, I forgot about Texas. I don't see any of the seats in Virginia being particularly competitive.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I thought the Virginia congressional map isn't out yet. Anyway, I find it hard to believe that in a state that has moved to toss-up/lean Dem territory it's feasible to contain the Dems to just 3 out of 11 seats. It's kind of an exercise in futility like the ones the Democrats tried against Republicans in Texas and Georgia.

They're going to work on it next month, but odds are they're going to punt it to next year, because the Senate Democrats want to pass a 7-4 map, and the House Republicans want to pass an 8-3 map. Virginia's Democratic voters are distributed such that you can make three solidly Democratic seats and distribute the remainder among the other districts.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I thought the Virginia congressional map isn't out yet. Anyway, I find it hard to believe that in a state that has moved to toss-up/lean Dem territory it's feasible to contain the Dems to just 3 out of 11 seats. It's kind of an exercise in futility like the ones the Democrats tried against Republicans in Texas and Georgia.

If you go for a really ugly Richmond-Norfolk Dem Pack, you can draw 8 McCain Seats at least, although they'd be like 53% McCain, which is not insurmountable for at Virginia Democrat.

Why would the Virginia Senate approve that?

The Dem majority is tenuous at best, which is why I said it'll probably get punted to next year. The Republicans have nothing to lose in doing that, really.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

No, Carson's totally going down, his new district's only 66% Obama, down from the previous district being 71% Obama. And Rokita is going to run in IN-07 despite the fact he can move like a mile to remain in his current district.