India 2024 LS and assembly elections

[jaichind]

Still no news from INC on who will contest from Rae Bareli and Amethi.  The later this drags out the worse it looks for them.  If Rahul Gandhi runs away from Amethi then it will drag down the entire INDIA effort in the Hindu heartland.  One variation I heard is Rahul Gandhi contest in Rae Bareli and Priyanka Gandhi contest in Amethi (turning Amethi into a women vs woman fight.)  That still seems less than idea but at least shows the Gandhi clan is willing to take risks and lead from the front.

[jaichind]

https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/lok-sabha-polls-2024-election-commission-final-voter-turnout-numbers-opposition-13766254.html

"Did the Election Commission delay voter turnout data of the first 2 phases?"

The turnout figures from the first two phases keeps on changing and took over 10 days to stabilize.  And even then the breakdown area not released.  This is a great shift from the norm in the past when all data were locked down and released in 1-2 days.

I think this is a re-run of the 2020 Iowa Dem primary.  ECI adding all these "apps" and "automation" created more problems with poor software and dealing with scale  and created a result that is much worse than a world when everything was done manually.

[jaichind]

This is very suboptimal.  He will most likely win, of course, but will be viewed as running from a fight.  I wonder who will run from Amethi.

[OSR stands with Israel]

this was funny:

https://twitter.com/CitizenAnkit/status/1785724550832955496

[jaichind]

https://www.financialexpress.com/india-news/lok-sabha-elections-2024-phalodi-satta-bazar-bets-on-nda-getting-less-than-two-thirds-majority/3474502/

"Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Phalodi satta bazar bets on NDA getting less than two-thirds majority"

Current betting markets

BJP   300-303 -> I currently have them at 305
NDA  340-350 -> I currently have them at 353
INC    50-51    -> I currently have them at 64

I guess the betting markets have NDA beating out INDIA than what I expected but not gaining ground against parties like BJD YSRCP and AITC as much as I would think.  Overall these results seem pretty consistent with betting markets right after phase 2 voting took place

[eos]

This is very suboptimal.  He will most likely win, of course, but will be viewed as running from a fight.  I wonder who will run from Amethi.

I can’t find an official announcement anywhere. Are you sure they announced it?

[jaichind]

This is very suboptimal.  He will most likely win, of course, but will be viewed as running from a fight.  I wonder who will run from Amethi.

I can’t find an official announcement anywhere. Are you sure they announced it?

You are right.  It seems that the announcement I thought I read is not legit.

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/lok-sabha/story/lok-sabha-polls-rahul-gandhi-likely-to-contest-from-raebareli-priyanka-gandhi-from-amethi-say-sources-2534644-2024-05-03

"Rahul Gandhi may contest from Raebareli, Priyanka Gandhi from Amethi: Sources"

This says it will be Rahul Gandhi from Rae Bareli and Priyanka Gandhi from Amethi.  Suboptimal.

I think Rahul Gandhi wants to win both Amethi and  Rae Bareli but does not want his sister in Parliment and it seems he cannot fufil both goals at the same time. 

[eos]

This is very suboptimal.  He will most likely win, of course, but will be viewed as running from a fight.  I wonder who will run from Amethi.

I can’t find an official announcement anywhere. Are you sure they announced it?

You are right.  It seems that the announcement I thought I read is not legit.

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/lok-sabha/story/lok-sabha-polls-rahul-gandhi-likely-to-contest-from-raebareli-priyanka-gandhi-from-amethi-say-sources-2534644-2024-05-03

"Rahul Gandhi may contest from Raebareli, Priyanka Gandhi from Amethi: Sources"

This says it will be Rahul Gandhi from Rae Bareli and Priyanka Gandhi from Amethi.  Suboptimal.

I think Rahul Gandhi wants to win both Amethi and  Rae Bareli but does not want his sister in Parliment and it seems he cannot fufil both goals at the same time. 

They have just announced it, RG will contest from Rae Bareli and family loyalist and political agent K.L. Sharma in Amethi. Bad decision. RG needs his sister contesting in Amethi to drown out the media narrative of ducking a fight.

[eos]

The only silver lining is that if RG wins in Rae Bareli ( he will), he can leave Wayanad for PG in a by-election so that CPI(M) can’t attack the INC for “abandoning” Kerela.

[jaichind]

The only silver lining is that if RG wins in Rae Bareli ( he will), he can leave Wayanad for PG in a by-election so that CPI(M) can’t attack the INC for “abandoning” Kerela.

The other way is for Priyanka Gandhi to contest Rae Bareli in a by-election and for Rahul Gandhi to stay in Wayanad.  Of course there is always the theory that Rahul Gandhi want to keep Priyanka Gandhi out of Parliment.

[jaichind]

They have just announced it, RG will contest from Rae Bareli and family loyalist and political agent K.L. Sharma in Amethi. Bad decision. RG needs his sister contesting in Amethi to drown out the media narrative of ducking a fight.

I agree.  The argument for K.L. Sharma is that he has deep roots in Amethi while Rahul Gandhi failed to nurture Amethi since losing it in 2019.  This move also frees up Priyanka Gandhi to campaign nationwide.  These tactical advantages do not take away from the narrative loss of running away from a fight.

[jaichind]

https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2024/May/03/congress-vs-india-and-bjp-vs-bjp-in-ladakhs-sole-lok-sabha-seat

"Congress vs INDIA, and BJP vs BJP in Ladakh’s sole Lok Sabha seat"

In the Ladakh seat, it was supposed to be BJP vs INC with JKNC backing INC.  Now it seems that the sitting BJP which was not renominated might run as a rebel while the local INC is working with JKNC to come up with an alternative candidate to the INC candidate and turn this into a 4 way fight.

[jaichind]

Looking back at this entire  Rae Bareli and Amethi episode, it seems there was no good answer for INC as either they have to overinvest in Amethi or Rahul Gandhi will be branded as a coward.  I think INC played it well by dragging this out over 2 to 3 days and ate up the media oxygen from the BJP.

I think the main loser here is actually SP where they will have to defend the BJP attack that Rahul Gandhi had so little confidence in the INDIA alliance in UP that he ran way from Amethi.    INC got something out of this but SP gets all the downside.

[jaichind]

The  opposition campaign claim that BJP's goal of NDA at 400 seats is really about changing the Constitution to remove reservation seems to be working in Dalit and OBC circles in rural Hindi heartland areas.   The BJP has pretty much stopped their campaign slogan about NDA winning 400 seats.

Now the BJP is trying to say something like "well, we sort of 400 seats currently today and noticed that we did not take away reservation." The fact they have to say that means the opposition narrative is working on the ground.
https://twitter.com/BJP4India/status/1786048103964954720

https://www.indiatodayne.in/national/video/bjp-will-not-remove-reservations-will-not-allow-congress-to-do-so-says-amit-shah-996228-2024-05-01

"BJP will not remove reservations, will not allow Congress to do so, says Amit Shah"

Reservations, especially for OBCs, are coming up as a key issue between the BJP and the opposition.

INC and allies have been pushing the Modi goal of NDA at 400 seats as part of a plan to change the Constitution to remove reservations for OBC and Dalits.  The BJP counters that they have no such plans and that it is INC that wants to create reservations for Muslims using the OBC quota.

At this stage this has become both sides vowing never to remove reservations and that the other side will.

[jaichind]

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/lok-sabha-elections/pakistan-eager-shehzada-takes-my-place-pm-modis-swipe-at-rahul-gandhi-617103

"'Pakistan eager that 'shehzada' takes my place'; PM Modi’s swipe at Rahul Gandhi"

Back in 2019 Modi pretty much focused on Pakistan all the time projecting him as the leader that can deal with Pakistan and tie INC to Pakistan.

This time Modi mostly have not mentioned Pakistan.  Starting yesterday Modi started on the Pakistan again.

[jaichind]

All signs are that in UP UP BJP CM Yogi Adityanath is a greater force than Modi in pulling in votes.  If so he better be careful as after the election Modi might move in to clip his wings to keep him under control.  He risks the old Chinese political issue of 功高震主 or "A subordinate outperforms as to create a threat to his master."

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canadian-police-have-made-arrests-case-killing-sikh-leader-nijjar-says-cbc-2024-05-03/

"Canada police charge three with murder of Sikh leader Nijjar, probe India link"

Any fallout most likely work to the advantage of the BJP, although most likely limited to urban areas.

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/arvinder-singh-lovely-resigns-as-delhi-congress-chief-report-101714279054552.html

"Arvinder Singh Lovely resigns as Delhi Congress chief, cites alliance with AAP"

Head of Delhi INC resigns days ahead of voting in Delhi citing his opposition to AAP as one of the reasons for his resignation.    It is very likely BJP will sweep all 7 seats in Delhi again and this makes it even more likely.

A few days after resigning as head of Delhi INC, Arvinder Singh Lovely joined BJP.  The reason he gave for resigning was his opposition to the AAP-INC alliance but during alliance talks, he was clearly in favor of an alliance only to backtrack later on.  The real reason of course was the was hoping to be able to get a ticket to contest but was denied such a ticket.  Before the 2019 LS elections he also quit INC to join BJP hoping to get a ticket and defected back after it was clear he would not get a ticket from BJP.

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/political-pulse/congress-puri-lok-sabha-polls-candidate-drops-out-9307299/

"Congress loses third wicket: After Surat and Indore, party’s Puri candidate pulls out of poll race"

In Puri's seat in Odisha, the INC candidate pulls out citing lack of funding from the party.  The INC is fairly weak here and will come in a poor third place anyway in this BJD-BJP battleground seat.  The INC candidate is part formerly strong INC family here and did reasonably well in 2014 with around 25% of the vote.  This time she will be lucky to get 10% and now it seems INC might have no candidate here which I think helps BJD.

[jaichind]

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/india/karnataka-sex-scandal-jds-mla-hd-revanna-taken-into-custody-by-sit-in-kidnapping-case-617870

"Karnataka sex scandal: JD(S) MLA HD Revanna taken into custody by SIT in kidnapping case"

Father of JD(S) MP Prajwal Revanna and Karnataka JD(S) MLA is arrested as part of the sexual assault and kidnapping accusations. 

[jaichind]

Modi is going to do at least 20-21 rallies in Maharastra.  It seems there are problems with transferring the BJP vote to SHS(Shinde) and NCPA(Ajit) requiring this unprecedented level of intervention by Modi.

[lfromnj]

https://vxtwitter.com/BJP4Karnataka/status/1786725873334256103

BJP claims that Rahul Gandhi will kick out ST/OBC to boost Muslims

[OSR stands with Israel]

Modi is going to do at least 20-21 rallies in Maharastra.  It seems there are problems with transferring the BJP vote to SHS(Shinde) and NCPA(Ajit) requiring this unprecedented level of intervention by Modi.

My prediction at the moment is the BJP/NDA get reduced to 2014 numbers.

[jaichind]

https://vxtwitter.com/BJP4Karnataka/status/1786725873334256103

BJP claims that Rahul Gandhi will kick out ST/OBC to boost Muslims

That's right.  That is in response to the fairly successful INC talking point that the Modi goal of 400 seats for the NDA is for Constitutional change to get rid of the Dalit/OBC reservation system.  The reason why this attack has some resonance is that in theory the RSS, the parent body of the BJP, is opposed to the reservation system.  This line of attack worked for the RJD-JD(U)-INC alliance against the BJP in the 2015 Bihar assembly elections.   

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/karnataka-r-ashoka-leader-of-opposition-prajwal-revanna-hd-revanna-sex-tapes-scandal-action-2535441-2024-05-05

"Won't spare Prajwal Revanna even if he wins polls: Karnataka BJP leader"

The Northern part of Karnataka has not voted yet.  The good news for BJP-JD(S) is that the JD(S) heartland already voted and JD(S) is fairly weak in Northern Karnataka.  The bad news for the BJP is that the entire Prajwal Revanna scandal seems to be attaching itself to the BJP and might hit the BJP when voting takes place in North Karnataka.  Also, this entire turn of events might demoralize the small but still relevant JD(S) vote up North and hurt their turnout which is, in theory, for the BJP.

As a result, the Karnataka BJP is trying to cut itself from Prajwal Revanna.  Of course, the INC will continue its attack up North in areas where voting is yet to come.