What is Lee Zeldin's needs for the huge upset in NY?

[sg0508]

What percentage does he have to get on the 1) Island, 2) Boroughs, 3) Upstate

I'm thinking 57-60% on LI, 35% somehow in the boroughs with depressed turnout (the key perhaps), and 60% upstate if he's to have a chance.

Also, is there a chance a third party candidate could shave 2-3 points away from Hochul? That will be key too.

[jamestroll]

He needs to hope Hochul's sh**tty transits on election sink her.

He has mostly neutral transits on election night.

[kwabbit]

What percentage does he have to get on the 1) Island, 2) Boroughs, 3) Upstate

I'm thinking 57-60% on LI, 35% somehow in the boroughs with depressed turnout (the key perhaps), and 60% upstate if he's to have a chance.

Also, is there a chance a third party candidate could shave 2-3 points away from Hochul? That will be key too.

Only Hochul and Zeldin are on the ballot. The NY Democratic Party was able to keep any 3rd parties off the ballot to prevent any losses from the left.

[sg0508]

What percentage does he have to get on the 1) Island, 2) Boroughs, 3) Upstate

I'm thinking 57-60% on LI, 35% somehow in the boroughs with depressed turnout (the key perhaps), and 60% upstate if he's to have a chance.

Also, is there a chance a third party candidate could shave 2-3 points away from Hochul? That will be key too.

Only Hochul and Zeldin are on the ballot. The NY Democratic Party was able to keep any 3rd parties off the ballot to prevent any losses from the left.

Interesting. When I lived in NY, the third party candidates consistently helped Republicans when they used to win statewide.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

This is a 50-46 map from 2010 for Comptroller:



Wilson also underperformed in many down state counties. 51% in Nassau and 53% in Suffolk.

Wilson did get 48% in Westchester and 26% in NYC proper (Richmond 54%, Queens 29%, NY 27% Kings 22% Bronx 14%)

Wilson was certainly more on the silk stocking/WASP/UMC side of the GOP spectrum and it show in these results.

Zeldin is very much the opposite.

I expect Zeldin (assuming he gets the same 46% baseline as Wilson) would get there via a different mix. Lower 40s in Westchester, 30s in Queens, less on Manhattan, high 50s or 60s on SI, and high 50s or 60s on LI.

I expect him to do better than Wilson in the North country and worse along the Vermont border. I expect him to better in the Western rurals but worse in some of the Hudson valley counties. Trump did  better or the same in many rural counties than Wilson did, and about the same in NYC (save for Manhattan of course).

To make this work, I agree with the general consensus on NYC (35%, certainly no lower than 30%) and preferably lower rather than high turnout. Double digit wins on LI, preferably pushing towards 20 in Suffolk.

No less than 42% (45% more realistically to be in the hunt statewide) probably in Westchester (winning NY without Westchester would be like winning VA without Loudon, you can do it but you really would rather not.

Nut performances in the Western and Central Rurals (70s or high 60s), and "decent wins" in Onondaga, Monroe and Erie (probably more than Wilson's 52%, 54%, 54%, made harder by Hochul being from Erie).

He doesn't have much margin for error and would need everything to go just right.