So how long until [Democrats] can start talking about taking back the [U.S.] House?
It will happen on the watch of next Republican U.S. president with two elected terms.
It's certainly not impossible (and obviously eventually Democrats are going to win back the House), but there are enough wealthy, exurban districts that are never going to elect a Democrat because they want a politician who is going to keep their taxes low, and now Democrats seem to have burned all of the bridges that they had left in socially conservative districts that were open (at least for a period) to their economic messages. It's a tough path (just as the GOP has a tough path in the EC right now).
I actually think waiting for enough suburbs to flip is the best strategy. The former Blue Dog districts generally gave Romney >60%, so they aren't coming back even if the next Dem president improved 10% with rural whites. They are currently in the same position as the GOP in 1960 when it comes to the South, having broken through in the cities and inner suburbs and fought to a draw in VA and FL but still getting crushed everywhere else. There's cause for hope, but the revolution's still 15-30 years away downballot. The big question now is whether they get an early assist from a reverse LBJ character. Don't discount the possibility of white collar suburbs completely freaking out after a Trump/Cruz nomination or worse, general election win. The Denver/NOVA effect will reach into some surprising places in a Trump/Cruz midterm, even in the cultural South.
Obama has made inroads with suburbanites that even Clinton didn't (I'm referring to suburbanites as more your "stereotypical" suburbanites, not people who happen to live in townships that are considered suburbs ... the suburbs surrounding Chicago are just not the same demographic they were 40 years ago), but that's not going to continue indefinitely. As long as the GOP is pushing for lower taxes and pro-business policies, not even to speak of opposing things like affirmative action, they're going to have an extremely high floor in the suburbs. I honestly view it like MN. The GOP has made a ton of gains there, but where do they go from here (which is kind of relevant because Minneapolis' suburbs are by far the GOP's best areas in the state)?
