Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
Atlas Star
Posts: 22,833
|
|
« on: December 13, 2018, 10:51:45 AM » |
|
NOTA. It's becoming increasingly difficult to overcome partisan leanings of most states, especially in senate races, which are, other than gubernatorial elections, more and more nationalized. Dems just don't win in red states any more and GOPers don't win in blue states. In NJ, for example, Hugin failed against a weak incumbent, because the state's leaning is too partisan. Voters just cared more about their party gaining/keeping seats rather than the individual candidates. The rare exceptions are horrible candidates like Roy Moore or Tester's reelection in a state, that is relatively Dem-friendly downballot. Manchin is another exception, but he is a figure of the past and WV-03 proved Dems just aren't competitive in WV anymore unless they are complete DINOs. If Manchin voted against Kavanaugh, he would have most likely lost to a weak GOP opponent.
IN/MO/ND and TN-Sen 2018 are other examples for this trend to nationalize senate elections. McCaskill's and Donnelly's elections in 2012 were also more of a fluke, because their challengers were literal jokes. Same with Bill Nelson, who won against weak challengers in previous races and ran a lame campaign this time against a strong opponent. That's why I think both Doug Jones and Cory Gardner are de-facto DOA for 2020, save some horrible opponents or other major factors. And that's why Dean Heller could not win in a Trump midterm.
|