Should Kerry attack more? The HHH Dilemma

[Mort from NewYawk]

The following two articles ran in the NY Times today:

Democrats Wonder if Kerry Should Stay on Careful Path
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/05/27/politics/campaign/27DEMS.html?hp

Citing a 'Shamed America,' Gore Calls for Rumsfeld, Rice, Tenet and 3 Others to Resign
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/05/27/politics/27gore.html

This campaign has a lot of the political dynamics of 1968. Although the incumbency situation is turned around, this is a very similar battle, to produce a Democratic constituency united from left to center, made near impossible by a war that is unpopular (to differing degrees) among Democrats, but generally popular among Republicans.

1968 Democratic nomination: President Lyndon Johnson, who had achieved one of the greatest landslides in history four years before, was battered by anti-Vietnam war protests and the anti-war candidacy of Eugene McCarthy. After losing an upset to McCarthy in the NH primary, LBJ announced in March that he would not run for re-election. Hubert H. Humphrey (HHH), the Vice President, stepped in for the nomination against McCarthy and the newly announced Robert Kennedy. In April Martin Luther King was assassinated. In June Robert Kennedy was assassinated on the night that he won the California primary, in effect making him the frontrunner for the nomination. George McGovern stood in for Kennedy, but Humphrey made off with the nomination as the Chicago police were beating protesters bloody on national TV outside the convention.
The Republicans nominated Richard Nixon, who had completed his political comeback, and was staunchly pro-war and anti-Communist.

1968 campaign (where the similarity begins): Democrats were split between the anti-war left and the left-to-center, which hadn’t yet gotten on the anti-war bandwagon. Humphrey was in the position of being the candidate while his administration was fighting the war. He waffled on the issue until mid-fall, when he finally announced he would bring the troops home as President. By that time, Humphrey, who was a veteran Senator and one of the greatest of the prairie populist liberals, had lost his credentials with the left. Many stayed home, not seeing a difference in the two candidates.

Nixon beat Humphrey by .7% of the PV, although he racked up 300+ EV s.  The Deep South went to George Wallace in that election, marking the transition between Democratic and Republican Presidential voting patterns in those states.

Can Kerry overcome the HHH dilemma?

[angus]

Interesting.  Larry Sabato is always comparing 2004 to 1968 also, but then he goes on to sell Bush as Truman.  "166 days can be the blink of an eye, or an eternity. In this extraordinary election year that resembles in some ways the cataclysmic twins of 1968 and 1980, it may be both.  ...every President since 1932 has either been well ahead in the polls by May and won reelection handily--or been defeated in November. Oh wait, there's one exception: Harry Truman. The patron saint of underdogs, Truman was so far behind throughout almost all of 1948 that the key pollsters of the day stopped surveying in early autumn, so certain was the victory of Republican Thomas E. Dewey. Yet a late surge by a determined "Give 'Em Hell" Harry produced one of the most eye-popping surprises of presidential campaign history. Truman beat Dewey 49.6% to 45.1%, with 2.4% each for Henry Wallace of the Progressives and Strom Thurmond of the Dixiecrats. (The electoral vote was 303 Truman, 189 Dewey, 39 Thurmond, and 0 Wallace.)"

I think Kerry is pretty mainstream Democrat, no matter what Sean Hannity tells me.  Which means, in a time like 2004, he has to walk a tightrope.  He's actually doing a pretty good job at it, in my opinion.  His critics are much like Bush's critics:  they're from the other party and thus won't take him seriously.  But the neutral guys are all calling it a horserace, and the polls bear that out.

[California Dreamer]

right now I think Kerry is doing the right thing with his paid media. His bio ads have raised his positives 5 points in BG states in the last month, whereas Bush's have dropped 4% in BG states. ( Source: Annenburg )

A lot of voters still dont know Kerry, Kerry needs to get known and trusted before he can make credible attacks on Bush, which should start in ernest after the Dem convention. Kerry has to get past merely 'attacking' Bush and offering an alternative vision.

[lidaker]

Truman was dead by 1968.

No, he died in 1972. But you misunderstood it anyway.

I'm getting a little worried about Kerry's strategery. Seems like they are being a bit too defensive.

[The Duke]

Truman was dead by 1968.

No, he died in 1972. But you misunderstood it anyway.

I'm getting a little worried about Kerry's strategery. Seems like they are being a bit too defensive.

I agree.  He needs to talk about his own ideas.  Right now, he only answers to attacks against him, meaning he never controls the tempo.

[Nym90]

Slight correction---

Johnson won the New Hampshire primary in 1968, but the fact that it was fairly close (under 10 points I believe) is what made it seem like a loss for him. It certainly was a loss for all practical and political purposes, but technically Johnson did win the primary.

[Mort from NewYawk]

Slight correction---

Johnson won the New Hampshire primary in 1968, but the fact that it was fairly close (under 10 points I believe) is what made it seem like a loss for him. It certainly was a loss for all practical and political purposes, but technically Johnson did win the primary.

Thank you, Nym. I admit to the lack of research on that point.

[BohemienneInPA]

I think Kerry is doing the right thing by laying a little low right now.  With everything going on in the media related to Iraq and the prisoner abuse scandal, I think it's serving him well to stay on the high road.  

I don't think that Kerry's higher numbers and Bush's lower numbers have much to do with what Kerry is doing or not doing.  It's more about what is being done to Bush in the media right now.  Kerry is just riding in the wake of that.  

Yet it is also true that many people say Kerry is keeping too mum on what his actual policies would be.  I expect that will all come out as the Convention approaches.  Time will tell.  

[Monty]

I was disappointed that this thread had nothing to do with THE GAME!  
http://raw.wwe.com/superstars/tripleh/index.html