2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Holmes]

It's gonna be a long 10 months if you overreact to everyone movement in the GCB polls.

[Holmes]

Nothing from LimoLiberal on this one, but he's happy to tout NRCC internals showing bad Dem numbers.

[Holmes]

Actually it's bad news for John McCain.

[Holmes]

Honestly Limo, you gotta stop obsessing over every single poll that releases.

[Holmes]

Colorado

https://www.colorado.edu/lab/aprl/sites/default/files/attached-files/2017_colorado_political_climate_report.pdf

Trump approval: 34/63
Generic ballot: Dems 56 / Reps 37

CO-06 and CO-03 fall easily with these numbers. Gardner is also at -23% approval so he might be DOA in 2020.

[Holmes]

Rasmussen is doing some generic ballot polls now.

1/28, 2018 Generic Ballot

Democrats: 45
Republicans: 37

D+8

These numbers are a little better for Democrats then I would expect from Rasmussen, considering their very accurate Likely voter model (which usually screens out Low-turnout Democratic voters). However, I don’t think a 45-37 lead is that impressive for Democrats considering theirs 18% undecided, and if those break Republican, then Democrats would be in big trouble.

But if those undecideds break Democratic, then It'll be a huge D landslide.

Who knows!

Oh, and one thing that I keep noticing. For an incumbent party, being consistently stuck in the mid to high 30's isn't that great.

[Holmes]

Republicans lead by only 6% in ALL of the districts they hold.

The GOP is finished. Libs using extra monies from Trump tax scam to send to lib candidates

This is actually what I'm doing with my extra $12 per paycheck. I already have a Costco membership.

[Holmes]

Back to out regularly scheduled programming of Blue Wave Imminent!

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It's interesting how similar the shapes of those two curves are.

Incumbent parties probably usually get a holiday bump followed by a SOTU bump near this time, then keep declining again. Then I guess a slight recovery in August (which I'm sure will make some posters here pee their pants), then more decline until most voters make up there minds near the end. Slight uptick for the incumbent party at the end from some voters coming home at the last minute.

[Holmes]

Well the swings in both seats are similar. 24% swing against Knight compared to 2016, and 27% against Rohrabacher in CA-48. All Clinton district Republicans will fall, and Nunes, Hunter and McClintock will sweat.

[Holmes]

Cool cool. But the PA-15 in the redistricting the legislature made is very different, and while hat map probably won't be approved, it's probably not a stretch to believe it will end up have very different lines.

[Holmes]

Quinipiac has D+15. 53 - 38.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2521

[Holmes]

Republicans and Trump's numbers really took a hit with this recent shooting, at least according to Q.

[Holmes]

Gold standard Quinipiac nailed VA-Gov.

[Holmes]

Half of Kansas' House delegation being Democratic in 2019 would be interesting.

[Holmes]

Paul Davis in KS-02.

[Holmes]

Walters is the strongest Clinton incumbent in California fwiw, and while I think she loses her seat in November, the House flips before that happens.

[Holmes]

Special election results do match up though.

[Holmes]

I can see Ojeda winning the seat, and by a larger margin than conventional wisdom dictates, but also winning Republican voters? I don't know. He should hire another pollster to get a second opinion.

[Holmes]

https://www.twitter.com/GravisMarketing/status/969612843019636736

Wasn't their last PA-18 poll their "final" one?

[Holmes]

Krystal Ball's group is backing and funding Ojeda.

[Holmes]

Didn't you just create a poll hype thread?

[Holmes]

I'm not hearing anything one way or the other about the Monmouth poll on my end.

[Holmes]

What's going on in Nebraska 2nd? Omaha doesn't exactly fit the "New Democratic/Champagne Liberal" trend seen across the nation.

What do you mean? It's a well off urban/suburban district with a decent black population and I believe a greater amount of college educated voters than the national average. This is pretty much ground zero for Democrats in the Trump years.

[Holmes]

Qpac also coming out with a poll at around 12 today, some people are saying. Don't have sources on this.

Well they did release some numbers yesterday so it stands to reason.

[Holmes]

So in the span of a week it went from 3 to 10 to 12 to 5. It moves too much.