2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Just popping in to say that Democrats lead in the generic ballot in May 2010. In fact, they lead as late as July 2010 (and as late as September 2014.)

Didn't the Democrats actually win the popular vote anyway, despite not winning the House? The 2010 "election" was based on the 2000 census, which had plenty of Republican gerrymandering.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Ipsos is a joke anymore.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TM1212Y17/type/week/filters/PD1:1/dates/20180101-20180521/collapsed/true

GOP leading according to newest reuters poll if I am reading it right

Reuters's new model is already discredited.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

This is one reason why I am inclined to think that the generic congressional ballot may be a bit less predictive than it has been in the past. At least to the extent that it is more dominated by internet polls than in the past, it makes sense to put more focus on special election results and probably most importantly on the actions of the DCCC/NRCC. At the end the real tell for how the election is breaking will be when the two committees make their final ad reservations.

If we go by special election results, D +20 might actually sound reasonable.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

IIRC there was what we would call nowadays a reverse age gap on attitudes towards the Vietnam War, unsurprising since the youth at the time were the conservative baby boomers and the seniors were the ultra-liberal GI generation.

I thought the younger folks were more likely to oppose the war.

But later, in the '90s, the younger voters were indeed more conservative. The first presidential election I could vote in was 1992, and I remember seeing a poll that said my generation was the most conservative at the time.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

If Republicans do very well ala 2002 or even 1998, there should be discussions about whether the Democrats have a way forward. If they do fairly well aka 1978, I expect the Democrats to do the above if they are serious.

But the Republicans have so little real support that they need to just dry up and blow away, regardless of if the Democrats can retake Congress.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Because of gerrymandering, I don't think they'll win the House, but I think it's almost certain they'll win the Senate.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

To be quite frank, the Democrats need to find a better leader than Pelosi.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I just think it's a shame that it took DONALD TRUMP becoming PRESIDENT to get people motivated enough to vote. Let that sink in for moment: DONALD TRUMP as PRESIDENT.

Reagan should have been enough. The right-wing revolution of 1994 should have been enough. The Bushes should have been enough. The Tea Party should have been enough. But no. It took DONALD TRUMP.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Also, I turned 18 in 1991, and I was already motivated to vote, because I had suffered enough right-wing injustice already. Why did it take so long for other people to catch on?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Is KY-4 moved to tossup yet?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Is KY-4 moved to tossup yet?

How on earth is that even close to a Tossup?

How is it not?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Is KY-4 moved to tossup yet?

How on earth is that even close to a Tossup?

How is it not?

It’s an R+18 district for a start

After the Trump debacle, will it still be?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Link: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Gravis_Montana_June_2018.pdf

Williams (D): 49
Gianforte (R): 43

469 LV; June 11-13

So this is from the same poll that has Tester up 7. That makes me doubt whether Tester being up 7 there is really accurate, as they seem to have basically the same number for MT-AL.

One would expect probably more ticket splitting in this race.

Tester has to be up by at least 10.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Yeah, no way is Rick Scott ahead - especially after Parkland.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Spaceman Nelson will not lose

Yeah, anyone who thought Rick Scott even had a chance was delusional.