2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Person Man]

If we had a candidate in TX-22 on the same caliber as Lizzie Fletcher, we might’ve had a shot at winning the seat. Oh well, maybe in 2020.

Democrats might only get to 205 seats, which is their average,  below 200 was below their average

That would be 9 seats.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

If we had a candidate in TX-22 on the same caliber as Lizzie Fletcher, we might’ve had a shot at winning the seat. Oh well, maybe in 2020.

Democrats might only get to 205 seats, which is their average,  below 200 was below their average

Begone concern troll.

[Person Man]

If we had a candidate in TX-22 on the same caliber as Lizzie Fletcher, we might’ve had a shot at winning the seat. Oh well, maybe in 2020.

Democrats might only get to 205 seats, which is their average,  below 200 was below their average

Begone concern troll.

If they don't get at least the numbers of seats they had in 2003, 48 or 49 in the Senate and like 208 or 210 in the house, I would be expecting Pelosi, Clyburn, Schumer, and Perez to resign. Minimum.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes,  PA, MI and WI would give them 10 to 15 seats,  the governorship that they will pick up.  In any event,  Please should resign.

[Arkansas Yankee]

If you can’t flip the House, it will be because your philosophy or Johnny one note hating Trump is not selling in fly over country.  You then better go back to the drawing boards.

I expect you to flip the House.  If you do not, you will be deemed losers of the election.

In looking at your predictions concerning the Presidential vote in 2020, I am amazed how many of you have Trump winning or doing very well as a loser.  If those predictions are true, if you do not take the House this year, you probably will not do it in 2020.

[Person Man]

If you can’t flip the House, it will be because your philosophy or Johnny one note hating Trump is not selling in fly over country.  You then better go back to the drawing boards.

I expect you to flip the House.  If you do not, you will be deemed losers of the election.

In looking at your predictions concerning the Presidential vote in 2020, I am amazed how many of you have Trump winning or doing very well as a loser.  If those predictions are true, if you do not take the House this year, you probably will not do it in 2020.

If it's not this year, next year is lean R and we have to wait until 2022. If not even then, we don't have an opposition. Then again, Carter did fairly well in 1978, too.

If Republicans do very well ala 2002 or even 1998, there should be discussions about whether the Democrats have a way forward. If they do fairly well aka 1978, I expect the Democrats to do the above if they are serious.

[Bidenworth2020]

If we had a candidate in TX-22 on the same caliber as Lizzie Fletcher, we might’ve had a shot at winning the seat. Oh well, maybe in 2020.

a pro choice neo lib

[Bandit3 the Worker]

If Republicans do very well ala 2002 or even 1998, there should be discussions about whether the Democrats have a way forward. If they do fairly well aka 1978, I expect the Democrats to do the above if they are serious.

But the Republicans have so little real support that they need to just dry up and blow away, regardless of if the Democrats can retake Congress.

[Person Man]

If Republicans do very well ala 2002 or even 1998, there should be discussions about whether the Democrats have a way forward. If they do fairly well aka 1978, I expect the Democrats to do the above if they are serious.

But the Republicans have so little real support that they need to just dry up and blow away, regardless of if the Democrats can retake Congress.

I can see the next 30 years being like 1850 to 1880, where o e party goes extinct because they were completely ineffective as an opposition against an incompetent governing party and a new party forms out of people from the dead party and moderates of the other. That party then dominates for a while. The other party sticks around because they have a solid constituency.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I was looking at YouTube videos and how they say, there is a path to GOP retaining Congress. Given,  the recent polling of late,  it isn't out the realm of possibilities now.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I was looking at YouTube videos and how they say, there is a path to GOP retaining Congress. Given,  the recent polling of late,  it isn't out the realm of possibilities now.

It's undoubtedly within the realm of possibility.  Although a Democratic takeover of the House seems more likely than not at this point, anyone who thinks it's a certainty is deluding themselves.  The Republican gerrymandering advantage is hard to overcome.  There's a distinct possibility that the Democrats will win the House popular vote while failing to win a majority of seats.

[henster]

I was looking at YouTube videos and how they say, there is a path to GOP retaining Congress. Given,  the recent polling of late,  it isn't out the realm of possibilities now.

All we have is the garbage online polls Reuters, YouGov, MC all of them have shown wild swings. Two days ago Reuters was D+8 and now D+2, wait for live caller polls to make any conclusions.

[Person Man]

I was looking at YouTube videos and how they say, there is a path to GOP retaining Congress. Given,  the recent polling of late,  it isn't out the realm of possibilities now.

It's undoubtedly within the realm of possibility.  Although a Democratic takeover of the House seems more likely than not at this point, anyone who thinks it's a certainty is deluding themselves.  The Republican gerrymandering advantage is hard to overcome.  There's a distinct possibility that the Democrats will win the House popular vote while failing to win a majority of seats.

I have a bad feeling that could be the most likely and le as desired outcome. It brings the legitimacy of our Government even into more question.

[Bidenworth2020]

Fletcher doesn't impress me. I don't think she will win. Hillary only won the district by 1.5, whereas Romney won it by 21. It still has some GOP DNA, even if it is shifting super fast. Dems depend on young voters to win districts like this, and young people will be turning out poorly in this midterm, just as they always do in this midterm.

Thankfully for democrats, there are plenty of other districts that are easier to win IMO. There's plenty of ripe targets in NJ/NY/PA, the midwest, and the west coast (although I am skeptical about dems making many gains in Orange County).

As for whether this poll is a good or bad result for dems... it's just a neutral result. About what I expect the final margin to be. I was actually thinking Fletcher would lose by 4 in November. I think Sessions loses by 2 and Hurd vs Jones is a big tossup (Hurd is a very strong incumbent - Sessions/Culberson would lose this matchup).

millenials will be turning out in crazy numbers (for a midterm)

[GeorgiaModerate]

CBS/YouGov, May 24-30, 24759 registered voters including 5693 in 64 "competitive and likely competitive" districts.  The overall topline is D 43, R 38.  Applying a "multilevel regression and post-stratification model", they estimate the final tally at 219 D, 216 R...but with a MoE of +/- 9 seats.

The 64 districts are AR02, AZ01, AZ02, CA07, CA10, CA21, CA24, CA25, CA39, CA45, CA48, CA49, CO06, CT05, FL07, FL18, FL26, FL27, GA06, IA01, IA02, IA03, IL06, IL12, KS02, KS03, KY06, ME02, MI08, MI11, MN01, MN02, MN03, MN08, NC09, NC13, NE02, NH01, NH02, NJ02, NJ03, NJ05, NJ07, NJ11, NV03, NV04, NY11, NY19, NY22, OH01, PA01, PA05, PA06, PA07, PA08, PA17, TX07, TX23, TX32, UT04, VA02, VA07, VA10, and WA08.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

CBS/YouGov, May 24-30, 24759 registered voters including 5693 in 64 "competitive and likely competitive" districts.  The overall topline is D 43, R 38.  Applying a "multilevel regression and post-stratification model", they estimate the final tally at 219 D, 216 R...but with a MoE of +/- 9 seats.

The 64 districts are AR02, AZ01, AZ02, CA07, CA10, CA21, CA24, CA25, CA39, CA45, CA48, CA49, CO06, CT05, FL07, FL18, FL26, FL27, GA06, IA01, IA02, IA03, IL06, IL12, KS02, KS03, KY06, ME02, MI08, MI11, MN01, MN02, MN03, MN08, NC09, NC13, NE02, NH01, NH02, NJ02, NJ03, NJ05, NJ07, NJ11, NV03, NV04, NY11, NY19, NY22, OH01, PA01, PA05, PA06, PA07, PA08, PA17, TX07, TX23, TX32, UT04, VA02, VA07, VA10, and WA08.

This sample is only very slightly more republican than the US (0.2% more repub). Consistent with a generic ballot lead of about D+7, which would be about a 1-10 seat house majority for dems.

[UncleSam]

CBS/YouGov, May 24-30, 24759 registered voters including 5693 in 64 "competitive and likely competitive" districts.  The overall topline is D 43, R 38.  Applying a "multilevel regression and post-stratification model", they estimate the final tally at 219 D, 216 R...but with a MoE of +/- 9 seats.

The 64 districts are AR02, AZ01, AZ02, CA07, CA10, CA21, CA24, CA25, CA39, CA45, CA48, CA49, CO06, CT05, FL07, FL18, FL26, FL27, GA06, IA01, IA02, IA03, IL06, IL12, KS02, KS03, KY06, ME02, MI08, MI11, MN01, MN02, MN03, MN08, NC09, NC13, NE02, NH01, NH02, NJ02, NJ03, NJ05, NJ07, NJ11, NV03, NV04, NY11, NY19, NY22, OH01, PA01, PA05, PA06, PA07, PA08, PA17, TX07, TX23, TX32, UT04, VA02, VA07, VA10, and WA08.

This sample is only very slightly more republican than the US (0.2% more repub). Consistent with a generic ballot lead of about D+7, which would be about a 1-10 seat house majority for dems.

If the sample is R+.2 and the generic ballot is D+5, would that make for a D+5.2 environment? Or did you typo the .2 and it is actually 2% more R?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

CBS/YouGov, May 24-30, 24759 registered voters including 5693 in 64 "competitive and likely competitive" districts.  The overall topline is D 43, R 38.  Applying a "multilevel regression and post-stratification model", they estimate the final tally at 219 D, 216 R...but with a MoE of +/- 9 seats.

The 64 districts are AR02, AZ01, AZ02, CA07, CA10, CA21, CA24, CA25, CA39, CA45, CA48, CA49, CO06, CT05, FL07, FL18, FL26, FL27, GA06, IA01, IA02, IA03, IL06, IL12, KS02, KS03, KY06, ME02, MI08, MI11, MN01, MN02, MN03, MN08, NC09, NC13, NE02, NH01, NH02, NJ02, NJ03, NJ05, NJ07, NJ11, NV03, NV04, NY11, NY19, NY22, OH01, PA01, PA05, PA06, PA07, PA08, PA17, TX07, TX23, TX32, UT04, VA02, VA07, VA10, and WA08.

This sample is only very slightly more republican than the US (0.2% more repub). Consistent with a generic ballot lead of about D+7, which would be about a 1-10 seat house majority for dems.

If the sample is R+.2 and the generic ballot is D+5, would that make for a D+5.2 environment? Or did you typo the .2 and it is actually 2% more R?

Oh, I meant compared to Hillary's result. Hillary won by 2.1%, so 0.2 + 2.1 + 5 = 7%

[LimoLiberal]

No enthusiasm gap in CBS poll -->

https://twitter.com/Brand_Allen/status/1003368303065223169

[BudgieForce]

I've learned to take most things with the YouGov logo on it with a grain of salt.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I've learned to take most things with the YouGov logo on it with a grain of salt.

[Devout Centrist]

No enthusiasm gap in CBS poll -->

https://twitter.com/Brand_Allen/status/1003368303065223169

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Hmm...

[Skill and Chance]

CBS/YouGov, May 24-30, 24759 registered voters including 5693 in 64 "competitive and likely competitive" districts.  The overall topline is D 43, R 38.  Applying a "multilevel regression and post-stratification model", they estimate the final tally at 219 D, 216 R...but with a MoE of +/- 9 seats.

The 64 districts are AR02, AZ01, AZ02, CA07, CA10, CA21, CA24, CA25, CA39, CA45, CA48, CA49, CO06, CT05, FL07, FL18, FL26, FL27, GA06, IA01, IA02, IA03, IL06, IL12, KS02, KS03, KY06, ME02, MI08, MI11, MN01, MN02, MN03, MN08, NC09, NC13, NE02, NH01, NH02, NJ02, NJ03, NJ05, NJ07, NJ11, NV03, NV04, NY11, NY19, NY22, OH01, PA01, PA05, PA06, PA07, PA08, PA17, TX07, TX23, TX32, UT04, VA02, VA07, VA10, and WA08.

This is roughly what I think will happen.

[KingSweden]

I've learned to take most things with the YouGov logo on it with a grain of salt.

[UncleSam]

No enthusiasm gap in CBS poll -->

https://twitter.com/Brand_Allen/status/1003368303065223169

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Hmm...

That is the usual definition of enthusiasm...

Would be interesting to see if the ‘definitely’ were significantly higher for Dems though