2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[LimoLiberal]

YouGov, May 13-15, 1231 RV

D 42 (-2), R 37 (+2). 

Dems also dropped two points in margin in Morning Consult.

[LimoLiberal]

Surprised this hasn't been posted yet.

http://endcitizensunited.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/OH12Results_ECU.pdf

OH-12 Special Election - PPP for Ends Citizens United (D)

Troy Balderson (R) - 45
Danny O'Connor (D) - 43

Trump won this district 53-42.

[KingSweden]

Surprised this hasn't been posted yet.

http://endcitizensunited.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/OH12Results_ECU.pdf

OH-12 Special Election - PPP for Ends Citizens United (D)

Troy Balderson (R) - 45
Danny O'Connor (D) - 43

Trump won this district 53-42.

Not bad results this soon after the primary. It’d be an easier out if that crazy lady had won on the GOP side though.

[Politician]

YouGov, May 13-15, 1231 RV

D 42 (-2), R 37 (+2). 

Dems also dropped two points in margin in Morning Consult.

Why use good polls? Why not just use Morning Consult, Rasmussen, Gravis, Zogby, colleges, internals, etc. to "prove" the blue wave is dead?

[LimoLiberal]

YouGov, May 13-15, 1231 RV

D 42 (-2), R 37 (+2). 

Dems also dropped two points in margin in Morning Consult.

Why use good polls? Why not just use Morning Consult, Rasmussen, Gravis, Zogby, colleges, internals, etc. to "prove" the blue wave is dead?

Ok. High quality CNN Poll shows D+3. High quality Pew Poll shows D+5.

[Politician]

YouGov, May 13-15, 1231 RV

D 42 (-2), R 37 (+2). 

Dems also dropped two points in margin in Morning Consult.

Why use good polls? Why not just use Morning Consult, Rasmussen, Gravis, Zogby, colleges, internals, etc. to "prove" the blue wave is dead?

Ok. High quality CNN Poll shows D+3. High quality Pew Poll shows D+5.

Just a low point. Give it a few weeks and it'll be back up again.

[Devout Centrist]

Y'know, no one is going to learn their damn lesson. We're gonna repeat the doomsaying of the past few weeks within two months or so.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Y'know, no one is going to learn their damn lesson. We're gonna repeat the doomsaying of the past few weeks within two months or so.

One definition of insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Forgot about this but PPP did the special election in Ohio's 12th and has it:
Republican Troy Balderson: 45%
Democrat Danny O’Connor: 43%

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Forgot about this but PPP did the special election in Ohio's 12th and has it:
Republican Troy Balderson: 45%
Democrat Danny O’Connor: 43%

Lol, Balderson is probably leading in high single digits.

[LimoLiberal]

NRCC NE-02 poll

Bacon (R) - 48
Ashford (D) - 46

Bacon (R) - 50
Eastman (D) - 40

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook-power-briefing/2018/05/16/senate-intel-committee-russia-investigation-270842

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[LimoLiberal]

Dem lead in RCP generic ballot below 5 points

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

NRCC NE-02 poll

Bacon (R) - 48
Ashford (D) - 46

Bacon (R) - 50
Ashford (D) - 40

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook-power-briefing/2018/05/16/senate-intel-committee-russia-investigation-270842

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It's Eastman at 40 not Ashford you oaf.

[LimoLiberal]

^^ Fixed

[Ebsy]

Hmm.. tightening in the generic ballot... almost as if this was predicted by something.

[OneJ]

NRCC NE-02 poll

Bacon (R) - 48
Ashford (D) - 46

Bacon (R) - 50
Ashford (D) - 40

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook-power-briefing/2018/05/16/senate-intel-committee-russia-investigation-270842

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It's Eastman at 40 not Ashford you oaf.

This. And before more of you get excited, this is an internal so take this w/ a grain of salt.

[KingSweden]

I am shocked that some random lady is trailing by more than a former Congressman in an NRCC internal

[GlobeSoc]

Seems like an attempt to intimidate DCCC out of NE-02

[Pollster]

The Bacon v. Eastman poll is likely showing the ceiling for the GOP and the floor for Dems in the district. It will likely be a turnout race.

The OH-12 poll is likely showing the floor for both parties.

[Young Conservative]

I am shocked that some random lady is trailing by more than a former Congressman in an NRCC internal

[UncleSam]

Bear in mind that most of the tightening in the generic ballot lately has been Rs coming home - in general R numbers are up but D numbers are about the same. This makes sense when you consider that Trump has had a few good weeks, primary season is underway, and Trump has started campaigning a bit. No one ever doubted (well, almost no one doubted) the ability of Rs to get 44-45 percent of the house vote this November. The question is can they get much if any beyond that. If Rs take 46.4-47 percent of the vote it’s hard to see the house as better than a coin flip and it’s virtually impossible to see a senate flip. If they get 44.5 percent then the house flips easily and the senate is a tossup. Obviously it’ll depend where the independents, disaffected Rs, and Obana-Trump voters go to see where in that range are fall.

Ds can be happy as long as they numbers don’t fall below 46-47 percent and R numbers don’t climb beyond 45 in any meaningful average, given how strong independents have broken for them thus far, in my opinion.

[Pericles]

Given the track record of GOP internals, Eastman is probably in a close race with Bacon.

[Politician]

Given the track record of GOP internals, Eastman is probably in a close race with Bacon.

[Gass3268]

Bear in mind that most of the tightening in the generic ballot lately has been Rs coming home - in general R numbers are up but D numbers are about the same. This makes sense when you consider that Trump has had a few good weeks, primary season is underway, and Trump has started campaigning a bit. No one ever doubted (well, almost no one doubted) the ability of Rs to get 44-45 percent of the house vote this November. The question is can they get much if any beyond that. If Rs take 46.4-47 percent of the vote it’s hard to see the house as better than a coin flip and it’s virtually impossible to see a senate flip. If they get 44.5 percent then the house flips easily and the senate is a tossup. Obviously it’ll depend where the independents, disaffected Rs, and Obana-Trump voters go to see where in that range are fall.

Ds can be happy as long as they numbers don’t fall below 46-47 percent and R numbers don’t climb beyond 45 in any meaningful average, given how strong independents have broken for them thus far, in my opinion.

+1

[IceSpear]

It's almost as if a former Congressman would have more name recognition than a some chick.