2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original
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Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original  (Read 206504 times)
LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1325 on: May 10, 2018, 09:13:44 AM »
Wow -->
Dems in big trouble, if true. (it's GOP internal polling so probably not entirely accurate)
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #1326 on: May 10, 2018, 09:23:33 AM »
Yes a GOP internal that won't release it's results so we don't know if it's aganist a generic D, a named opponet, or if they are within the MOE. Limo this is why people accuse you of being a troll
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #1327 on: May 10, 2018, 09:28:37 AM »
« Edited: May 10, 2018, 09:31:52 AM by john cage bubblegum »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on May 10, 2018, 09:13:44 AM
Wow -->
Dems in big trouble, if true. (it's GOP internal polling so probably not entirely accurate)

Not entirely accurate is putting it mildly.  That entire article was a Republican fundraiser/activist pushing an absurdly pro-Republican narrative about the midterms.  Pretty much useless data.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #1328 on: May 10, 2018, 09:30:38 AM »
Quote from: john cage bubblegum on May 10, 2018, 09:28:37 AM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on May 10, 2018, 09:13:44 AM
Wow -->
Dems in big trouble, if true. (it's GOP internal polling so probably not entirely accurate)


Not entirely accurate is putting it mildly.  That entire article was a Republican fundraiser/activist pushing an absurdly pro-Republican narrative about the midterms.  Useless.

CA-21 and NY-24 are also not on my list of top pickups, no matter what the PVI says
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #1329 on: May 10, 2018, 02:58:09 PM »
Quote from: DTC on May 09, 2018, 08:21:34 PM
Little loser limo lies, lies, and lies again!

Why hasn't he taken his 1 week break? He said he would and then posted an hour later.

More like Limo LIEBERAL. Not good!
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1330 on: May 10, 2018, 03:10:43 PM »
http://observer.com/2018/05/jeff-van-drews-internal-poll-has-him-leading-hirsh-singh/

Van Drew up in NJ-02 by 18 points, 52-34.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1331 on: May 10, 2018, 03:23:52 PM »

Knock off 5 for an internal, but that's still pretty impressive.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1332 on: May 10, 2018, 03:25:57 PM »
Lots of talk about Philly being a big media market in the Fall, but I think in the end the only big races are going to be PA-01 and NJ-03. PA-05, PA-06, PA-07 and NJ-02 will all be off the board.
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junior chįmp
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« Reply #1333 on: May 10, 2018, 04:49:47 PM »
"all downhill from here"
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #1334 on: May 10, 2018, 04:56:54 PM »
I don't think the generic ballot will go down from here instantly, but I do think it'll drop like a rock in October once premium information comes out. GCB will remain roughly the same until October imo.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #1335 on: May 10, 2018, 05:52:28 PM »
Quote from: DTC on May 10, 2018, 04:56:54 PM
I don't think the generic ballot will go down from here instantly, but I do think it'll drop like a rock in October once premium information comes out. GCB will remain roughly the same until October imo.

I agree.

Also - did we ever figure out where Morris is getting his numbers from?
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1336 on: May 10, 2018, 10:54:42 PM »
« Edited: May 10, 2018, 11:04:56 PM by PittsburghSteel »
These headlines are doozies...

Nate Silver and Nancy Pelosi are probably laughing their asses off

https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/09/opinions/gop-wins-against-democrats-blue-wave-stewart-opinion/index.html

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/may/9/inside-the-beltway-a-red-wave-threatens-the-blue-w/

https://www.westernjournal.com/ct/blue-wave-becomes-blue-puddle/
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1337 on: May 10, 2018, 10:59:41 PM »

I'm totally ok with this. The more "red wave is imminent stories" the less motivated Trump supporters are to vote. Let them think everything is fine and the GOP is gonna gain 50 seats.
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #1338 on: May 10, 2018, 11:00:35 PM »
I like how none of these outlets covered the D+16 CNN poll (which was a huge outlier), but are covering the D+3 CNN poll (also an outlier)

The GCB has also been D+6 to D+7 this entire time and special elections have been exactly the same for months, but suddenly we're supposed to think that cuz of 1 poll, republicans are suddenly going to have a red wave.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1339 on: May 10, 2018, 11:19:58 PM »
Wow, CNN is really trying to throw their poll into the face of everybody. They have like five different headlines for it.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #1340 on: May 10, 2018, 11:32:43 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on May 10, 2018, 10:59:41 PM

I'm totally ok with this. The more "red wave is imminent stories" the less motivated Trump supporters are to vote. Let them think everything is fine and the GOP is gonna gain 50 seats.

I’m skeptical “headlines” keep people home but there’s a fair argument to be made it happened in 2016, so idk
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1341 on: May 11, 2018, 11:25:55 AM »
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KingSweden
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« Reply #1342 on: May 11, 2018, 11:29:44 AM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on May 11, 2018, 11:25:55 AM


Any indication of which polling firm they used, for database purposes? I wasn’t aware Kaiser did this kind of thing in-house, but who knows
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1343 on: May 11, 2018, 11:38:41 AM »
Wow.
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #1344 on: May 11, 2018, 11:40:06 AM »
Wow, D+8 is devastating for the GOP. Mitch Mcconell and Trump are crying in their boxers.
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Doimper
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« Reply #1345 on: May 11, 2018, 11:41:50 AM »
Wow. Interesting. Hmm.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1346 on: May 11, 2018, 11:42:22 AM »
What is Kaiser defining as competitive congressional races? Impossible to make any judgements without the list of seats.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #1347 on: May 11, 2018, 11:44:05 AM »
Quote from: Ebsy on May 11, 2018, 11:42:22 AM
What is Kaiser defining as competitive congressional races? Impossible to make any judgements without the list of seats.

Good question. For now I’d defer to Morris’s description of average Tossup seat being R+5 (probably a bit high IMO but not outside of reason)
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1348 on: May 11, 2018, 11:47:32 AM »
Quote from: KingSweden on May 11, 2018, 11:29:44 AM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on May 11, 2018, 11:25:55 AM


Any indication of which polling firm they used, for database purposes? I wasn’t aware Kaiser did this kind of thing in-house, but who knows

They used SSRS.  I think this is the poll in question: https://www.kff.org/health-costs/poll-finding/kaiser-health-tracking-poll-preview-role-of-health-care-2018-midterm-campaigns/.  From the Methodology link:

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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1349 on: May 11, 2018, 11:48:46 AM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on May 11, 2018, 11:38:41 AM
Wow.

Define 'battleground' races. Many of these are R-leaning districts, so it's not like Dems are losing.
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