2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Virginiá]

Generic ballot polls belong in this thread. They don't need their own thread. You know this, LimoLiberal.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

In the Morning Consult poll, 36% of Americans opposed pulling out of the Iran Deal while 26% supported it.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

In the Morning Consult poll, 36% of Americans opposed pulling out of the Iran Deal while 26% supported it.

As a general rule of thumb, if neither side obtains 40% in a poll, then there are too many undecideds for anyone to be able to draw any conclusions from it.

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/DavidNir/status/994306316511465472

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/994301974488256513

And this was the first tweet in PPP's thread: https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/994300578573385728

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

That's very interesting.

[KingSweden]

In the Morning Consult poll, 36% of Americans opposed pulling out of the Iran Deal while 26% supported it.

As a general rule of thumb, if neither side obtains 40% in a poll, then there are too many undecideds for anyone to be able to draw any conclusions from it.

This.

As for the PPP thread, while I agree with the thrust of it, I don’t believe it’s an either/or proposition. We can use special election results and polls, along with a variety of other data, to color our impressions of this fall.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

In the Morning Consult poll, 36% of Americans opposed pulling out of the Iran Deal while 26% supported it.

As a general rule of thumb, if neither side obtains 40% in a poll, then there are too many undecideds for anyone to be able to draw any conclusions from it.

This.

As for the PPP thread, while I agree with the thrust of it, I don’t believe it’s an either/or proposition. We can use special election results and polls, along with a variety of other data, to color our impressions of this fall.

Lol you always have to poo on it.

[KingSweden]

In the Morning Consult poll, 36% of Americans opposed pulling out of the Iran Deal while 26% supported it.

As a general rule of thumb, if neither side obtains 40% in a poll, then there are too many undecideds for anyone to be able to draw any conclusions from it.

This.

As for the PPP thread, while I agree with the thrust of it, I don’t believe it’s an either/or proposition. We can use special election results and polls, along with a variety of other data, to color our impressions of this fall.

Lol you always have to poo on it.

What can I say I’m trying to be aggressively reasonable haha

I’ve been making that argument more against the hot-takers on here who want to use any single poll to confirm their priors, but I’m glad PPP and Nate Silver have formulated a version of it more eloquent than my own

[LimoLiberal]

LMAO, PPP thread designed to quell Democratic fears... hauntingly familiar

https://twitter.com/search?l=&q=from%3Appppolls%20since%3A2016-11-02%20until%3A2016-11-08&src=typd&lang=en


https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/794510024596918272



B*tch, I got receipts.

[Virginiá]

LMAO, PPP thread designed to quell Democratic fears... hauntingly familiar

https://twitter.com/search?l=&q=from%3Appppolls%20since%3A2016-11-02%20until%3A2016-11-08&src=typd&lang=en


https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/794510024596918272



B*tch, I got receipts.

And yet PPP still does better predictions than you. They also don't screw with people for fun, which alone makes them better.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

PPP always has Trump approvals at much higher than they are nationally, so I think they've learned.

Also lol at LL tryna look cool by using the b word. This baby can't even wipe his own butt yet and he thinks he's hot stuff.

[UncleSam]

I agree that PPP is garbage that gets a free pass on this site because of their left leaning bias, but the notion of ‘Roy Moore +27’ calling out anyone is kind of ridiculous.

[krazen1211]

I believe the Dem party may be experiencing a decline in its generic ballot poll standing.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I agree that PPP is garbage that gets a free pass on this site because of their left leaning bias, but the notion of ‘Roy Moore +27’ calling out anyone is kind of ridiculous.

PPP got 2010 and 2012 pretty well. I don't think they were off by much in 2014 either? It isn't a garbage pollster, lol.

And how are they left leaning when they've always found Trump's approvals at about 3-4% higher than the average of all of the other polls?

[GeorgiaModerate]

I agree that PPP is garbage that gets a free pass on this site because of their left leaning bias, but the notion of ‘Roy Moore +27’ calling out anyone is kind of ridiculous.

PPP's polls are quite good.  538's database gives them a B+ rating with a bias of R+0.2.  Yes, their owner is a liberal.  So what?  Fox News is conservative, but their polls are good too.  Results are what's important.

[OneJ]

Once again folks, PPP has a slight R-leaning bias.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/994313554504404998

[LimoLiberal]

PPP spent the week before the 2016 election reassuring Dems anxious about the Comey letter that a Clinton victory was coming, seen in those tweets. I don't trust any attempt by them to say "everything's fine" because of that (though I do think there is no reason to panic over one poll).

Why are people obsessed that I said b*tch? Have they ever considered that I talk like that in real life?

[KingSweden]

PPP spent the week before the 2016 election reassuring Dems anxious about the Comey letter that a Clinton victory was coming, seen in those tweets. I don't trust any attempt by them to say "everything's fine" because of that (though I do think there is no reason to panic over one poll).

Why are people obsessed that I said b*tch? Have they ever considered that I talk like that in real life?

You think there’s no reason to panic over one poll yet created a thread for a CNN poll so you could do your usual trolly song and dance

[LimoLiberal]

PPP spent the week before the 2016 election reassuring Dems anxious about the Comey letter that a Clinton victory was coming, seen in those tweets. I don't trust any attempt by them to say "everything's fine" because of that (though I do think there is no reason to panic over one poll).

Why are people obsessed that I said b*tch? Have they ever considered that I talk like that in real life?

You think there’s no reason to panic over one poll yet created a thread for a CNN poll so you could do your usual trolly song and dance

Somehow I did a "trolly song and dance" without actually trolling? Cause all I did was post a significant poll, just like PittsburghSteel did with this thread a week ago: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=291035.0
That thread was arguably more inexcusable, considering Morning Consult is a pretty unreliable weekly tracking poll while CNN is far more high quality. However, I won't make threads for individual polls in the future.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Little loser limo lies, lies, and lies again!

Why hasn't he taken his 1 week break? He said he would and then posted an hour later.

[Hindsight was 2020]

PPP spent the week before the 2016 election reassuring Dems anxious about the Comey letter that a Clinton victory was coming, seen in those tweets. I don't trust any attempt by them to say "everything's fine" because of that (though I do think there is no reason to panic over one poll).

Why are people obsessed that I said b*tch? Have they ever considered that I talk like that in real life?

You think there’s no reason to panic over one poll yet created a thread for a CNN poll so you could do your usual trolly song and dance

Somehow I did a "trolly song and dance" without actually trolling? Cause all I did was post a significant poll, just like PittsburghSteel did with this thread a week ago: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=291035.0
That thread was arguably more inexcusable, considering Morning Consult is a pretty unreliable weekly tracking poll while CNN is far more high quality. However, I won't make threads for individual polls in the future.

The title of that thread was deliberate trolling Limo. Come on now, we've had like 4 CGB today from respected sources that were 9+, two that were +7, and the 3+, and you make a thread about the lowest one

[junior chįmp]

PPP spent the week before the 2016 election reassuring Dems anxious about the Comey letter that a Clinton victory was coming, seen in those tweets. I don't trust any attempt by them to say "everything's fine" because of that (though I do think there is no reason to panic over one poll).

Why are people obsessed that I said b*tch? Have they ever considered that I talk like that in real life?

PPP showed Democrats leading the generic ballot in late September 2010 before a 65 seat loss in November.

Polls and models are overrated (imo all models are junk). But the enthusiasm gap, fundraising, record number of candidates running, and special election results were very good for the GOP in 2010. They are even better so for the Dems going into 2018.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Reuters 18-34 year old support:

Democrats: 43% (+6)
Republicans 25% (-1)


Black:

Democrats: 66% (+1)
Republicans: 6% (-3)

SAD! Where are all the headlines?

[KingSweden]

PPP spent the week before the 2016 election reassuring Dems anxious about the Comey letter that a Clinton victory was coming, seen in those tweets. I don't trust any attempt by them to say "everything's fine" because of that (though I do think there is no reason to panic over one poll).

Why are people obsessed that I said b*tch? Have they ever considered that I talk like that in real life?

You think there’s no reason to panic over one poll yet created a thread for a CNN poll so you could do your usual trolly song and dance

Somehow I did a "trolly song and dance" without actually trolling? Cause all I did was post a significant poll, just like PittsburghSteel did with this thread a week ago: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=291035.0
That thread was arguably more inexcusable, considering Morning Consult is a pretty unreliable weekly tracking poll while CNN is far more high quality. However, I won't make threads for individual polls in the future.

I’d have put that poll you linked to in the megathread as well.

The *only* case in which I’d separate out is A) individual race polls and B) Senate approval ratings, even the sketchy ones MC does