2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[LimoLiberal]

Yougov

Democrats - 42 (-1)
Republicans - 39 (+1)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Some interesting numbers from Morning Consult:

Dems lead with Catholics 43-38%
Dems leading in the suburbs 45-33%
Dems lead amongst Moderate 47-24%
Dems leading men 42-36%
Dems leading amongst Students 60-19%
Dems winning Midwest 44-32%

GOP losing African Americans 7-72% (Not interesting, just funny because of the whole Kanye crap)

[Politician]

Morning Consult

Dems: 43% (-1)
GOP: 34% (-1)

They polled Gen Z (18-21 year olds)

Dems: 58%
GOP: 20%

Millennials (22-37 years old)

Dems: 45%
GOP: 28%

But muh conservative Gen Z!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Voters trust the Dems with the Economy 40-35%
Trust the Dems on Healthcare 58-19%
Trust the GOP on security 63-21%
Trust the Dems on Education 47-23%
Trust the Dems with Energy 56-16%

As we can probably tell, if they had a push poll, meaning they pushed the undecided to tell which way they were leaning, the Dems would have a much higher lead. Cook was right. Independents are going to break Democrat. The reason why the Democrats aren't leading by a landslide in the polls is because Independents are less willing to answer the question.

[Gass3268]

Yougov

Democrats - 42 (-1)
Republicans - 39 (+1)

You said you'd be gone for a week.

[KingSweden]

Yougov

Democrats - 42 (-1)
Republicans - 39 (+1)

You said you'd be gone for a week.

[Politician]

Yougov

Democrats - 42 (-1)
Republicans - 39 (+1)

You said you'd be gone for a week.

[LimoLiberal]

NY-22: Zogby finds Brindisi leading incumbent Tenney

http://www.uticaod.com/news/20180502/poll-brindisi-ahead-of-tenney-in-race-for-congress

Brindisi (D) - 47
Tenney (R) - 40

When undecideds are pushed it's 55-45.

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Tenney won by 5 points (46-41) here in 2016 as the district went for Trump 55-39.

[Politician]

NY-22: Zogby finds Brindisi leading incumbent Tenney

http://www.uticaod.com/news/20180502/poll-brindisi-ahead-of-tenney-in-race-for-congress

Brindisi (D) - 47
Tenney (R) - 40

When undecideds are pushed it's 55-45.

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Tenney won by 5 points (46-41) here in 2016 as the district went for Trump 55-39.

No surprise, Tenney is on track to lose in November being a terrible incumbent.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

NY-22: Zogby finds Brindisi leading incumbent Tenney

http://www.uticaod.com/news/20180502/poll-brindisi-ahead-of-tenney-in-race-for-congress

Brindisi (D) - 47
Tenney (R) - 40

When undecideds are pushed it's 55-45.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Tenney won by 5 points (46-41) here in 2016 as the district went for Trump 55-39.

Brindisi winning 57% of Independents, 68% of 18-34 year olds, and 59% of women.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Morning Consult

Dems: 43% (-1)
GOP: 34% (-1)

They polled Gen Z (18-21 year olds)

Dems: 58%
GOP: 20%

Millennials (22-37 years old)

Dems: 45%
GOP: 28%

That’s a -17 vs a -38

That’s a MASSIVE spread.

I imagine the Gen Z numbers are replicated with younger Millennials, while older ones like myself (1990 and earlier) are probably a bit more conservative overall

Disappointing to see Millennials being relatively pro Republican. They should considering the environment and state of today's Republican party be at around 65-35 Democratic on the GCB.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Some interesting numbers from Morning Consult:

Dems lead with Catholics 43-38%
Dems leading in the suburbs 45-33%
Dems lead amongst Moderate 47-24%
Dems leading men 42-36%
Dems leading amongst Students 60-19%
Dems winning Midwest 44-32%

GOP losing African Americans 7-72% (Not interesting, just funny because of the whole Kanye crap)

Someone check RINO Tom

B-b-ut sensible moderate suburbanites will shun the radicalized Democratic party and back the party of Rubio and Kasich!

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Some interesting numbers from Morning Consult:

Dems lead with Catholics 43-38%
Dems leading in the suburbs 45-33%
Dems lead amongst Moderate 47-24%
Dems leading men 42-36%
Dems leading amongst Students 60-19%
Dems winning Midwest 44-32%

GOP losing African Americans 7-72% (Not interesting, just funny because of the whole Kanye crap)

Someone check RINO Tom

B-b-ut sensible moderate suburbanites will shun the radicalized Democratic party and back the party of Rubio and Kasich!

[Gass3268]

Even as Trump's approval increases in the new Monmouth Poll, the Generic Ballot remains essentially the same:

[KingSweden]

Even as Trump's approval increases in the new Monmouth Poll, the Generic Ballot remains essentially the same:

RIP Limo

[Skill and Chance]

Even as Trump's approval increases in the new Monmouth Poll, the Generic Ballot remains essentially the same:

RIP Limo

Looking at this and the special election results, it seems clear that there is a percentage of the population that basically thinks of Trump as a 3rd party.  The continuing divergence between the GCB, which points to Dems just barely taking the House with 220-some seats and the average of the 2017-18 special elections, which points to an absolute blowout with Dems getting 250-some seats is fascinating.

[Virginiá]

Looking at this and the special election results, it seems clear that there is a percentage of the population that basically thinks of Trump as a 3rd party.  The continuing divergence between the GCB, which points to Dems just barely taking the House with 220-some seats and the average of the 2017-18 special elections, which points to an absolute blowout with Dems getting 250-some seats is fascinating.

I don't know about that. When his approvals were lower, so were Republican GCB numbers. Also, the electorate is polarized with regards to Trump in exactly the way you'd expect with a Republican president. That shouldn't be the case if people saw Trump as a non-Republican. Even some of the lowest info voters probably know he's a Republican. It's impossible to miss after this long.

I think a better answer is that a very comfortable GCB lead for Democrats doesn't require Trump to be super unpopular as maybe it was thought before. Obama wasn't as unpopular as Trump in 2010 and Republicans held an R+9.4 lead by the end of the election cycle.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Monmouth Poll Crosstabs-

Dems winning Millennials 53%-20%
Dems winning 23% of Conservatives
Democrats winning moderates 52%-37%

Dems and Reps tied 40% for independents, I question that

[GeorgiaModerate]

More interesting numbers from Morning Consult.  GCB by district PVI range:

Safe D (PVI > D+10): D 55, R 21 (D+34)
Lean D (D+5 to D+10): D 45, R 29 (D+16)
Tossup (R+5 to D+5): D 39, R 35 (D+4)
Lean R (R+5 to R+10): R 39, D 36 (R+3)
Safe R (> R+10): R 45, D 30 (R+15)

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

More interesting numbers from Morning Consult.  GCB by district PVI range:

Safe D (PVI > D+10): D 55, R 21 (D+34)
Lean D (D+5 to D+10): D 45, R 29 (D+16)
Tossup (R+5 to D+5): D 39, R 35 (D+4)
Lean R (R+5 to R+10): R 39, D 36 (R+3)
Safe R (> R+10): R 45, D 30 (R+15)

Too bad these results are from Morning Consult lol

[LimoLiberal]

PEW Poll (last poll was in mid January)

Democrats - 48 (-5)
Republicans - 43 (+4)

Pew is considered a high-quality poll. Nonpartisan analysts. estimate Democrats would need a margin of 7-9 points to retake the House in November, and this poll shows they are currently falling short.

Their lowest point in any Pew Generic Ballot poll since July of 2014 (they didn't poll the 2016 election).


http://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2018/05/03134750/05-03-18-political-topline-for-release.pdf

[BudgieForce]

Since Trump's numbers remained relatively stable in that Pew poll, I'm gonna chalk up such a huge movement to a wacky sample.

[LimoLiberal]

Since Trump's numbers remained relatively stable in that Pew poll, I'm gonna chalk up such a huge movement to a wacky sample.

I don't like the results of the poll, therefore it is bad.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

LimoLiberal got Alabama wrong by almost 30, AZ-08 wrong by 10, Virginia-gov wrong by 10

[Brittain33]

Since Trump's numbers remained relatively stable in that Pew poll, I'm gonna chalk up such a huge movement to a wacky sample.

I don't like the results of the poll, therefore it is bad.

Weren't you going to leave the forum for a week?