2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Trump won Wagner's seat by 10.... democrats only need to do 2.2 points better than Hillary in every seat to win. Obviously that's not exactly what's going to happen, but dems could easily get 50 seats before they get Wagner's seat. And R+3 could mean dems get Wagner's seat anyways.

Ofc, hofoid is just a troll so it doesn't matter what you respond. Democrats could gain 40 seats in November and he'd still say it's bad for the democrats. He will say dumb garbage no matter what.

[Virginiá]

Trump won Wagner's seat by 10.... democrats only need to do 2.2 points better than Hillary in every seat to win. Obviously that's not exactly what's going to happen, but dems could easily get 50 seats before they get Wagner's seat. And R+3 could mean dems get Wagner's seat anyways.

Ofc, hofoid is just a troll so it doesn't matter what you respond. Democrats could gain 40 seats in November and he'd still say it's bad for the democrats. He will say dumb garbage no matter what.

bingo

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump won Wagner's seat by 10.... democrats only need to do 2.2 points better than Hillary in every seat to win. Obviously that's not exactly what's going to happen, but dems could easily get 50 seats before they get Wagner's seat. And R+3 could mean dems get Wagner's seat anyways.

Ofc, hofoid is just a troll so it doesn't matter what you respond. Democrats could gain 40 seats in November and he'd still say it's bad for the democrats. He will say dumb garbage no matter what.

bingo

Virginia, honest question here: what exactly is the mods' position on this kind of repetitive trollery? 

[Virginiá]

Virginia, honest question here: what exactly is the mods' position on this kind of repetitive trollery?  

Some of us, like myself, are more authoritarian on it and would just like to exile people who make it clear that they do not respect anyone around here and wish to piss people off, start arguments, etc. I can only speak for myself here but generally I feel that once a user has established a clear, consistent pattern of thread derailing, sparking arguments and such, that there is no reason to let them stick around. What is the point? Atlas is a forum people wish to converse on because of the mature, reasonable users who engage in thoughtful discussion, not the bottom of the barrel bomb throwers like hofoid, King Lear, and at least LimoLiberal v1 (I still think he's gotten better). Why should one or two users be allowed to sit around trying to piss people off?

There are then some Moderators who maybe would take a harder line against trolling but Dave never really addressed this, and they don't want to start down a path where they might be regulating Dave's forum in ways he might not approve of. It's not the most unreasonable issue, but I wish more of an effort was made to actually get Dave to weigh in on this.

Then there are some Moderators who I'm not sure about. I have seen some viewpoints that trolling can be too ambiguous, and/or that people need to stop feeding the trolls, which is something I kind of agree with. If we all agree that hofoid is a troll, just stop responding to him, and the problem solves itself. But then again, while I think that's semi-reasonable, I also believe reality never works out like this. Even I wished to respond to various trolls at times simply to leave take apart their stupid theories for others to see, because some of those theories are things actual non-trolls believe in. Just look at the Twitter feed of that eccentric conservative cheerleader LimoLiberal always posts on special elections lol.


-

Let me take apart hofoid's post, just for an example of why it's becoming clear (although arguably has been for a while now) that he either has always been a career troll or is becoming one now:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

First:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

D+3 in MO is blatantly not a disaster from the perspective of anyone who knows anything about Missouri. Republicans won the House PV in Missouri by over 20 points in 2014 and 2016, and by over 12 points in 2012. To say it is a disaster for Democrats is intellectually dishonest and hyperbole that basically all of the recent Atlas trolls have engaged in.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Again, anyone who follows these House races closely would know that Wagner's seat is not even needed to claim a majority. It's way back there in terms of competitive seats. I'm not sure how many GOP-held seats are in front of it, but upwards of 40 - 60 seems reasonable, if not more. Again, this is either intellectually dishonest or he is just hopelessly stupid.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Starting to sound like King Lear here. A short look at history would show no party that controls the White House has ever gained 10 seats in a midterm since 1934. There are good reasons for it. This has been talked about at length on here. I can actually forgive this for most people since it is usually only people ignorant of politics who think their party can win big in a midterm where their party controls the White House.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Now he's imitating LimoLiberal. Let's put aside his almost surely insincere motives for a second. A bounce implies something goes up, then down. It's April 30th for gods sakes lol. Who even cares if there is a meaningful bounce. The entire problem for the White House party in midterms is that the focus is always on them, and they get blamed for everything. A gajillion things are going to happen between now and November that will cause a constant shifting of the narrative.


-


I don't think I'm going to be as patient with hofoid this time around. He knows what went on with the whole King Lear/LimoLiberal situation. If he wants to go down that path, there isn't going to be a containment thread for him. I'll just begin scrubbing every one of his posts on the midterm boards. The same goes for LimoLiberal if he wants to revert back to form again as well. I want everyone, including myself, to enjoy Atlas free of annoying little pests, especially for the midterms, so if I have to get more aggressive with this then I will.

[KingSweden]

Virginia you have the patience of Job. You have my admiration and respect.

[Torie]

"Yep, it's a disaster for the Dems. Considering that they've banked on winning suburban seats like Wagner's...this will be a rough November. I can see the GOP gaining 10 seats at this rate. Just wait for the N. Korea bounce."

Virginia, I am one who is hostile in general to the trolling rap (no secret to anyone I suspect), but the comment above is LOL trolling (nobody can be that profoundly ignorant who is a political junkie in good faith), and you have made a good case it is part of a consistent pattern, so I have more sympathy if you pursue this poster on that ground, then I generally would have. It is time that he toned it way down to a dull roar, or at least make his trolling more entertaining and creative. Hofoid, my best advice to you if you read this is to rein this in on your own ASAP.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Virginia you have the patience of Job. You have my admiration and respect.

[Blackacre]

Virginia you have the patience of Job. You have my admiration and respect.

[IceSpear]

Virginia, honest question here: what exactly is the mods' position on this kind of repetitive trollery?  

Some of us, like myself, are more authoritarian on it and would just like to exile people who make it clear that they do not respect anyone around here and wish to piss people off, start arguments, etc. I can only speak for myself here but generally I feel that once a user has established a clear, consistent pattern of thread derailing, sparking arguments and such, that there is no reason to let them stick around. What is the point? Atlas is a forum people wish to converse on because of the mature, reasonable users who engage in thoughtful discussion, not the bottom of the barrel bomb throwers like hofoid, King Lear, and at least LimoLiberal v1 (I still think he's gotten better). Why should one or two users be allowed to sit around trying to piss people off?

There are then some Moderators who maybe would take a harder line against trolling but Dave never really addressed this, and they don't want to start down a path where they might be regulating Dave's forum in ways he might not approve of. It's not the most unreasonable issue, but I wish more of an effort was made to actually get Dave to weigh in on this.

Then there are some Moderators who I'm not sure about. I have seen some viewpoints that trolling can be too ambiguous, and/or that people need to stop feeding the trolls, which is something I kind of agree with. If we all agree that hofoid is a troll, just stop responding to him, and the problem solves itself. But then again, while I think that's semi-reasonable, I also believe reality never works out like this. Even I wished to respond to various trolls at times simply to leave take apart their stupid theories for others to see, because some of those theories are things actual non-trolls believe in. Just look at the Twitter feed of that eccentric conservative cheerleader LimoLiberal always posts on special elections lol.


-

Let me take apart hofoid's post, just for an example of why it's becoming clear (although arguably has been for a while now) that he either has always been a career troll or is becoming one now:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

First:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

D+3 in MO is blatantly not a disaster from the perspective of anyone who knows anything about Missouri. Republicans won the House PV in Missouri by over 20 points in 2014 and 2016, and by over 12 points in 2012. To say it is a disaster for Democrats is intellectually dishonest and hyperbole that basically all of the recent Atlas trolls have engaged in.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Again, anyone who follows these House races closely would know that Wagner's seat is not even needed to claim a majority. It's way back there in terms of competitive seats. I'm not sure how many GOP-held seats are in front of it, but upwards of 40 - 60 seems reasonable, if not more. Again, this is either intellectually dishonest or he is just hopelessly stupid.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Starting to sound like King Lear here. A short look at history would show no party that controls the White House has ever gained 10 seats in a midterm since 1934. There are good reasons for it. This has been talked about at length on here. I can actually forgive this for most people since it is usually only people ignorant of politics who think their party can win big in a midterm where their party controls the White House.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Now he's imitating LimoLiberal. Let's put aside his almost surely insincere motives for a second. A bounce implies something goes up, then down. It's April 30th for gods sakes lol. Who even cares if there is a meaningful bounce. The entire problem for the White House party in midterms is that the focus is always on them, and they get blamed for everything. A gajillion things are going to happen between now and November that will cause a constant shifting of the narrative.


-


I don't think I'm going to be as patient with hofoid this time around. He knows what went on with the whole King Lear/LimoLiberal situation. If he wants to go down that path, there isn't going to be a containment thread for him. I'll just begin scrubbing every one of his posts on the midterm boards. The same goes for LimoLiberal if he wants to revert back to form again as well. I want everyone, including myself, to enjoy Atlas free of annoying little pests, especially for the midterms, so if I have to get more aggressive with this then I will.

I mean, I don't see how LimoLiberal has gotten better. Maybe because I wasn't around for his really frequent spamming, but his recent posts are just as bad and intellectually dishonest as that hofoid post. For example:

McCaskill hasn’t so much as grazed 50% in a poll since 2012. Here she trails a lesser-known challenger six months out in a state where POTUS remains popular. Rasputin-like fortunes aside, there’s no way to spin this as good news for her.

For one thing, this is an outright lie. Every poll I've seen has shown Trump's approval as roughly evenly split in Missouri. Also intellectually dishonest since an evenly split approval rating in an R+9 state you won by ~20 points is obviously not good news for you, which is basically the same thing you just debunked about the hofoid post.

Tester is in big big trouble. Check out the comments on his social media. Looks like Montanans are turning against him.

More intellectual dishonesty. I highly doubt, considering he can comprehend election data and can formulate sentences with proper grammar, that he genuinely believes that random people on social media (99.9% of whom are not from Montana) represent the opinions of Montanans. It's a clear bait post.

Lean R.

• Trump is very very popular there
• Heidi is already losing in a high-quality poll

More intellectual dishonesty and outright lies. Basically the same formula as the Missouri post. His "high quality" poll is a Republican internal that was off by double digits in several of their 2016 polls. And like Missouri, no poll shows Trump "very very popular" in North Dakota. He knows this stuff already, as he obsessively follows the polls. It's clear trolling.

Trump is going to receive a Nobel Peace Prize.

Blatantly obvious bait. Nobody, even the genuine MAGA crowd, is dumb enough to believe this. If this is "better", what exactly was it that you guys were dealing with before? lol

[Virginiá]

^ IceSpear, just so this thread doesn't get any more off-topic, see my new thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=282555.1175

[Blackacre]

538's GCB average is bearing this out somewhat, but I'll say it anyway: based on this graph and how good it's been so far, we should expect the Democrats' position on the GCB to improve pretty consistently from here until the 100 Day mark or so.

[Doimper]

Virginia you have the patience of Jeb! You have my admiration and respect.

[KingSweden]

Virginia you have the patience of Jeb! You have my admiration and respect.

...please clap

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

[Blackacre]

HOW

HOW IS THIS GRAPH SO DAMN GOOD

[Pericles]

Virginia you have the patience of Jeb! You have my admiration and respect.

[Mike Thick]

Virginia you have the patience of Jeb! You have my admiration and respect.

...please clap

"It's a marathon, not a sprint"

[publicunofficial]

Jason Ritterreiser is apparently dominating primary polling for WA-08. Having him be the likely D nominee makes me a lot more confident in that seat.

[KingSweden]

Jason Ritterreiser is apparently dominating primary polling for WA-08. Having him be the likely D nominee makes me a lot more confident in that seat.

Oh that is good news. Same here.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, April 26-30, 1977 RV

D 43 (-2)
R 35 (+1)

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Ipsos/Reuters, April 26-30, 1977 RV

D 43 (-2)
R 35 (+1)

...and people had the nerve to come at me for talking of a Korea bounce.

[KingSweden]

Ipsos/Reuters, April 26-30, 1977 RV

D 43 (-2)
R 35 (+1)

...and people had the nerve to come at me for talking of a Korea bounce.

You declared that “the blue wave” was dead and the GOP would gain ten seats in the House and that a R+3 GCB in *Missouri* was a disaster for Democrats

[Bidenworth2020]

Ipsos/Reuters, April 26-30, 1977 RV

D 43 (-2)
R 35 (+1)

...and people had the nerve to come at me for talking of a Korea bounce.

thegcb fluctuates, like swing 6 to the dems in the last poll. didnt see any reasoning behind that?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Morning Consult

Dems: 43% (-1)
GOP: 34% (-1)

They polled Gen Z (18-21 year olds)

Dems: 58%
GOP: 20%

Millennials (22-37 years old)

Dems: 45%
GOP: 28%

[KingSweden]

Morning Consult

Dems: 43% (-1)
GOP: 34% (-1)

They polled Gen Z (18-21 year olds)

Dems: 58%
GOP: 20%

Millennials (22-37 years old)

Dems: 45%
GOP: 28%

That’s a -17 vs a -38

That’s a MASSIVE spread.

I imagine the Gen Z numbers are replicated with younger Millennials, while older ones like myself (1990 and earlier) are probably a bit more conservative overall