2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original
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Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original  (Read 206501 times)
Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
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« Reply #1100 on: April 25, 2018, 04:23:08 PM »

5 point surge a month means the Dems will win in November by 43 points.
#BlueTsunamiStrikesBack
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junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
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« Reply #1101 on: April 25, 2018, 04:31:23 PM »
Quote from: Zyzz on April 25, 2018, 04:23:08 PM

5 point surge a month means the Dems will win in November by 43 points.
#BlueTsunamiStrikesBack

+660 seats in the House. BIG
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1102 on: April 25, 2018, 04:34:18 PM »
Quote from: Mondale on April 25, 2018, 04:31:23 PM
Quote from: Zyzz on April 25, 2018, 04:23:08 PM

5 point surge a month means the Dems will win in November by 43 points.
#BlueTsunamiStrikesBack

+660 seats in the House. BIG

And that's before likely voter models are used! With the enthusiasm gap it could be +750 seats!
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #1103 on: April 25, 2018, 06:06:00 PM »
I dont know if anyone's seen but there's a McLaughlin & Associates poll (paid for by Breitbart) that has the generic ballot as tied.

http://mclaughlinonline.com/2018/04/24/april-2018-national-survey-results/

For posterity, I'm posting it here. But theres a reason 538 gives them a C-.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1104 on: April 25, 2018, 06:13:16 PM »
Quote from: superbudgie1582 on April 25, 2018, 06:06:00 PM
I dont know if anyone's seen but there's a McLaughlin & Associates poll (paid for by Breitbart) that has the generic ballot as tied.

http://mclaughlinonline.com/2018/04/24/april-2018-national-survey-results/

For posterity, I'm posting it here. But theres a reason 538 gives them a C-.

They're the pollster that was so bad the NRCC warned their candidates not to use McLaughlin.

And to make this even worse, Dick Morris was also involved in this poll, according to Harry Enten.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1105 on: April 25, 2018, 07:02:46 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on April 25, 2018, 06:13:16 PM
And to make this even worse, Dick Morris was also involved in this poll, according to Harry Enten.

I feel overwhelmed.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1106 on: April 25, 2018, 07:16:40 PM »
Even in the most skewed polls, Republicans have not had a lead in the generic ballot for this cycle to date.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1107 on: April 26, 2018, 01:23:46 AM »
Quote from: Arch on April 25, 2018, 07:16:40 PM
Even in the most skewed polls, Republicans have not had a lead in the generic ballot for this cycle to date.

Morning Consult, IIRC, gave them a one point lead a couple of months ago.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1108 on: April 26, 2018, 01:27:25 AM »
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on April 26, 2018, 01:23:46 AM
Quote from: Arch on April 25, 2018, 07:16:40 PM
Even in the most skewed polls, Republicans have not had a lead in the generic ballot for this cycle to date.

Morning Consult, IIRC, gave them a one point lead a couple of months ago.

Nope: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1109 on: April 26, 2018, 01:30:58 AM »
Quote from: Arch on April 26, 2018, 01:27:25 AM
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on April 26, 2018, 01:23:46 AM
Quote from: Arch on April 25, 2018, 07:16:40 PM
Even in the most skewed polls, Republicans have not had a lead in the generic ballot for this cycle to date.

Morning Consult, IIRC, gave them a one point lead a couple of months ago.

Nope: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html

I'm sure one of those R-friendly polls gave them a one point lead in February.
I remember it because it raised a lot of eyebrows both here and among the numbers guys.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1110 on: April 26, 2018, 03:10:25 AM »

b-b-b-b-b-ut I thought it was a permanent swing and not random noise and that DEMONCRAPS WERE FINISHED!!!11!!
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #1111 on: April 26, 2018, 03:00:16 PM »
Quote from: KingSweden on April 25, 2018, 01:32:02 PM
The Q Poll means per my model that BlueTsunami2018(C) is back on and I’m headed to Kate Upton’s house to get it on

She will need consoling after her uncle loses to some guy named Paul Clements by 10 points.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #1112 on: April 26, 2018, 05:27:05 PM »
Quote from: publicunofficial on April 26, 2018, 03:00:16 PM
Quote from: KingSweden on April 25, 2018, 01:32:02 PM
The Q Poll means per my model that BlueTsunami2018(C) is back on and I’m headed to Kate Upton’s house to get it on

She will need consoling after her uncle loses to some guy named Paul Clements by 10 points.

*adjusts tie*

Why did you think I was headed over there?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1113 on: April 26, 2018, 05:42:17 PM »
Cook Political: If Democrats Are Doing so Great, Why Don't They Have a Bigger Lead on Generic Ballot?
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #1114 on: April 26, 2018, 05:57:35 PM »

My theory is that because both parties are so incredibly unpopular, people don't really want to pick either of them in a generic question. Many people dislike both.

However, because democrats don't have to defend unpopular Trump, tax reform, and health care, and are able to define themselves with policies not being pursued currently, they are better able to differentiate themselves from generic D, whereas most republicans are unable to get away from the generic R label.
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Greedo punched first
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« Reply #1115 on: April 26, 2018, 07:00:26 PM »
Tulchin Research CA-39 primary: Cisneros 19, Nelson 13.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1116 on: April 26, 2018, 07:09:37 PM »
Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll: http://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Final_HHP_April2018_RegisteredVoters_Topline_Memo.pdf

Interestingly there were sort of 2 generic ballot questions asked:

If the 2018 midterms were held today, would you vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate in your district?

Democrat: 43
Republican: 34
Other: 5
Unsure: 17

If the 2018 midterm elections were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of the United States House of Representatives?

Democratic Party: 56
Republican Party: 44

If the election were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of the United States Senate?

Democratic Party: 55
Republican Party: 45

Seems to indicate a strong preference among undecideds for the Democratic Party.
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GM Team Member and Senator WB
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« Reply #1117 on: April 26, 2018, 07:17:13 PM »
Quote from: Ebsy on April 26, 2018, 07:09:37 PM
Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll: http://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Final_HHP_April2018_RegisteredVoters_Topline_Memo.pdf

Interestingly there were sort of 2 generic ballot questions asked:

If the 2018 midterms were held today, would you vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate in your district?

Democrat: 43
Republican: 34
Other: 5
Unsure: 17

If the 2018 midterm elections were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of the United States House of Representatives?

Democratic Party: 56
Republican Party: 44

If the election were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of the United States Senate?

Democratic Party: 55
Republican Party: 45

Seems to indicate a strong preference among undecideds for the Democratic Party.
who are that odd 1% who want to see a Dem house / Rep Senate?
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Holy Unifying Centrist
DTC
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« Reply #1118 on: April 26, 2018, 07:30:22 PM »
Quote from: Representative weatherboy1102 on April 26, 2018, 07:17:13 PM
Quote from: Ebsy on April 26, 2018, 07:09:37 PM
Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll: http://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Final_HHP_April2018_RegisteredVoters_Topline_Memo.pdf

Interestingly there were sort of 2 generic ballot questions asked:

If the 2018 midterms were held today, would you vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate in your district?

Democrat: 43
Republican: 34
Other: 5
Unsure: 17

If the 2018 midterm elections were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of the United States House of Representatives?

Democratic Party: 56
Republican Party: 44

If the election were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of the United States Senate?

Democratic Party: 55
Republican Party: 45

Seems to indicate a strong preference among undecideds for the Democratic Party.
who are that odd 1% who want to see a Dem house / Rep Senate?

Given that the Senate question seems to be asked second, it could be some people who want to see dems get control of one area of Congress to check Trump but aren't comfortable giving them both the house and senate.
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #1119 on: April 26, 2018, 07:31:38 PM »
Probably people who want Democrats to be able to block legislation but not judges.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #1120 on: April 26, 2018, 09:02:56 PM »
Quote from: Solid4096 on April 26, 2018, 07:31:38 PM
Probably people who want Democrats to be able to block legislation but not judges.

Could also be noise/MoE
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Virginiá
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« Reply #1121 on: April 26, 2018, 09:20:26 PM »
Quote from: Solid4096 on April 26, 2018, 07:31:38 PM
Probably people who want Democrats to be able to block legislation but not judges.

That seems overly generous to the political awareness of the average voter.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #1122 on: April 27, 2018, 12:46:19 AM »
Quote from: Representative weatherboy1102 on April 26, 2018, 07:17:13 PM
Quote from: Ebsy on April 26, 2018, 07:09:37 PM
Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll: http://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Final_HHP_April2018_RegisteredVoters_Topline_Memo.pdf

Interestingly there were sort of 2 generic ballot questions asked:

If the 2018 midterms were held today, would you vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate in your district?

Democrat: 43
Republican: 34
Other: 5
Unsure: 17

If the 2018 midterm elections were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of the United States House of Representatives?

Democratic Party: 56
Republican Party: 44

If the election were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of the United States Senate?

Democratic Party: 55
Republican Party: 45

Seems to indicate a strong preference among undecideds for the Democratic Party.
who are that odd 1% who want to see a Dem house / Rep Senate?
People who clicked '2' on accident
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1123 on: April 27, 2018, 11:51:50 AM »


Ann Wagner in trouble.
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junior chįmp
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« Reply #1124 on: April 27, 2018, 11:57:00 AM »
Quote from: Ebsy on April 27, 2018, 11:51:50 AM


Ann Wagner in trouble.

Both Wagner and Hawely to lose in November?!

Damn....Claire  is playing 4D chess here
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