2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original
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Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original  (Read 206501 times)
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hofoid
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« Reply #1075 on: April 23, 2018, 12:29:21 PM »
As Trump begins to dip in approval, Dems become much more complacent and will stop voting as a check on him. Anyone calling for a Blue Wave is staring at a foolish fantasy.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1076 on: April 23, 2018, 12:37:04 PM »
Quote from: Cardi B-Inspired Blue Wave on April 23, 2018, 12:29:21 PM
As Trump begins to dip in approval, Dems become much more complacent and will stop voting as a check on him. Anyone calling for a Blue Wave is staring at a foolish fantasy.


Just like it happened in 2010 with Republicans.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1077 on: April 23, 2018, 12:43:04 PM »
Quote from: Cardi B-Inspired Blue Wave on April 23, 2018, 12:29:21 PM
As Trump begins to dip in approval, Dems become much more complacent and will stop voting as a check on him. Anyone calling for a Blue Wave is staring at a foolish fantasy.

*Ignores the fact Republicans were out-raised in 60 seats they hold, record number of GOP resignations, national environment, historic unpopularity of the President, Democrats winning in areas they shouldn't be, human capital of Dem candidates, etc.

But hey! Surely a few polls discredit all of that.
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #1078 on: April 23, 2018, 02:34:15 PM »
Quote from: Cardi B-Inspired Blue Wave on April 23, 2018, 12:29:21 PM
As Trump begins to dip in approval, Dems become much more complacent and will stop voting as a check on him. Anyone calling for a Blue Wave is staring at a foolish fantasy.

I would wait on line for 4 hours in a downpour or a blizzard to vote against Dear Leader's chosen candidate, and I know I'm not the only one.
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Blackacre
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« Reply #1079 on: April 23, 2018, 03:02:59 PM »
Quote from: Cardi B-Inspired Blue Wave on April 23, 2018, 12:29:21 PM
As Trump begins to dip in approval, Dems become much more complacent and will stop voting as a check on him. Anyone calling for a Blue Wave is staring at a foolish fantasy.

When has anything like that ever happened, to any party, in any election? I'm serious; you are describing something that, to the best of my knowledge, has never happened before.

And before you say 2016, Trump won in 2016 because of the Comey letter, a superior electoral strategy on the ground, and Wikileaks, not because of complacency.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1080 on: April 23, 2018, 03:17:34 PM »
Quote from: Stranger in a strange land on April 23, 2018, 02:34:15 PM
Quote from: Cardi B-Inspired Blue Wave on April 23, 2018, 12:29:21 PM
As Trump begins to dip in approval, Dems become much more complacent and will stop voting as a check on him. Anyone calling for a Blue Wave is staring at a foolish fantasy.

I would wait on line for 4 hours in a downpour or a blizzard to vote against Dear Leader's chosen candidate, and I know I'm not the only one.

After what happened in 2016, it's hard to imagine Democrats becoming complacent anytime soon.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1081 on: April 24, 2018, 06:52:43 PM »
Weren't we promised a poll from Nevada today?
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KingSweden
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« Reply #1082 on: April 24, 2018, 06:55:11 PM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on April 24, 2018, 06:52:43 PM
Weren't we promised a poll from Nevada today?

7pm PT
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #1083 on: April 24, 2018, 06:56:31 PM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on April 24, 2018, 06:52:43 PM
Weren't we promised a poll from Nevada today?
where i do i get it?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1084 on: April 24, 2018, 06:59:31 PM »

Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports on Twitter) will probably have it very quickly.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1085 on: April 25, 2018, 04:32:14 AM »
After yesterday's Arizona special we've come to the point where people like Enten and Wasserman admitted that all the CGB fluctuations are just statistical noise and a serious reevaluation of which Republicans seats are safe must be done.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1086 on: April 25, 2018, 06:20:26 AM »
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on April 25, 2018, 04:32:14 AM
After yesterday's Arizona special we've come to the point where people like Enten and Wasserman admitted that all the CGB fluctuations are just statistical noise

Anyone with a brain cell already knew this. Generic ballot polls are almost always noisy and quite often completely inaccurate.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1087 on: April 25, 2018, 09:15:42 AM »
Morning Consult: April 19-23, 1993 RV

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000162-f99c-d817-a7f2-f99cd7940001

Democrat: 44 (+1)
Republican: 35 (-1)
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1088 on: April 25, 2018, 09:19:51 AM »

Great Poll! Blue Wave is Alive!
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KingSweden
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« Reply #1089 on: April 25, 2018, 10:50:30 AM »
Unfortunately YouGov is at 5, so my model says the Blue Wave #narrative is over and the #metoo transgenderism Democrats will cause a 1,000 year GOP supermajority and also I will fail to seduce Genesis Rodriguez
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1090 on: April 25, 2018, 10:55:22 AM »
Quote from: KingSweden on April 25, 2018, 10:50:30 AM
Unfortunately YouGov is at 5, so my model says the Blue Wave #narrative is over and the #metoo transgenderism Democrats will cause a 1,000 year GOP supermajority and also I will fail to seduce Genesis Rodriguez

Sad Poll. Blue Wave is Dead.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1091 on: April 25, 2018, 11:15:49 AM »
Quote from: Politician on April 25, 2018, 11:01:05 AM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on April 25, 2018, 10:55:22 AM
Quote from: KingSweden on April 25, 2018, 10:50:30 AM
Unfortunately YouGov is at 5, so my model says the Blue Wave #narrative is over and the #metoo transgenderism Democrats will cause a 1,000 year GOP supermajority and also I will fail to seduce Genesis Rodriguez

Sad Poll. Blue Wave is Dead.
LOL

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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #1092 on: April 25, 2018, 11:16:13 AM »


And this sample is 37% Hillary - 38% Trump (Huh?)
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1093 on: April 25, 2018, 12:01:11 PM »
Quote from: KingSweden on April 25, 2018, 10:50:30 AM
Unfortunately YouGov is at 5, so my model says the Blue Wave #narrative is over and the #metoo transgenderism Democrats will cause a 1,000 year GOP supermajority and also I will fail to seduce Genesis Rodriguez

For a moment there I thought my Ignore list had stopped working and this was from Lear. Smiley
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KingSweden
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« Reply #1094 on: April 25, 2018, 12:38:14 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on April 25, 2018, 12:01:11 PM
Quote from: KingSweden on April 25, 2018, 10:50:30 AM
Unfortunately YouGov is at 5, so my model says the Blue Wave #narrative is over and the #metoo transgenderism Democrats will cause a 1,000 year GOP supermajority and also I will fail to seduce Genesis Rodriguez

For a moment there I thought my Ignore list had stopped working and this was from Lear. Smiley

His spirit channeled through me
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junior chįmp
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« Reply #1095 on: April 25, 2018, 12:59:46 PM »
Quinnipiac: Generic ballot D+8.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2538
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1096 on: April 25, 2018, 01:07:47 PM »

Previous Q poll was D+3.
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #1097 on: April 25, 2018, 01:16:27 PM »
According to that poll, the only shifts from 2016 (comparing Hillary-Trump vs D-R now) are among uneducated white people. every other group is roughly the same as in 2016. according to the poll, they are 8 points more D than in 2016

which, granted, are about 45% of the electorate and even more heavily concentrated in many of the swing senate seats
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KingSweden
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« Reply #1098 on: April 25, 2018, 01:32:02 PM »
The Q Poll means per my model that BlueTsunami2018(C) is back on and I’m headed to Kaye Upton’s house to get it on
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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #1099 on: April 25, 2018, 03:59:29 PM »
Quote from: King Leer on April 25, 2018, 01:16:27 PM
According to that poll, the only shifts from 2016 (comparing Hillary-Trump vs D-R now) are among uneducated white people. every other group is roughly the same as in 2016. according to the poll, they are 8 points more D than in 2016

which, granted, are about 45% of the electorate and even more heavily concentrated in many of the swing senate seats

The D demographics, even if the margin doesn't change among them, should represent a bigger share of the electorate and thus shift the country left anyway. Combine that with a shift to dems among WWC with lower turnout from them and you've got yourself a wave
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