2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[UncleSam]

Well the survey says imminent danger. Could be he’s up like 6 or something

[KingSweden]

Well the survey says imminent danger. Could be he’s up like 6 or something

Fair enough.

And if Garrett and Budd are the “foundation” of keeping the House... woof. As someone pointed out on DKE, there’s 35-40 odd districts likelier to fall than either of theirs

[junior chįmp]

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[LimoLiberal]

Muhlenberg College Pennsylvania poll:

Congressional Generic Ballot

Democrats - 47
Republicans - 38

For reference, Democrats lost the 2016 congressional vote 46-54 in 2016.

I would estimate Democrats pick up PA-05, PA-06, PA-07, PA-01, PA-17, with competitive but r-tilting races in PA-10 and PA-16.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Muhlenberg College Pennsylvania poll:

Congressional Generic Ballot

Democrats - 47
Republicans - 38

For reference, Democrats lost the 2016 congressional vote 46-54 in 2016.

I would estimate Democrats pick up PA-05, PA-06, PA-07, PA-01, PA-17, with competitive but r-tilting races in PA-10 and PA-16.

Encouraging. Cartwright should be safe in PA-08 with those statewide numbers as well.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Muhlenberg College Pennsylvania poll:

Congressional Generic Ballot

Democrats - 47
Republicans - 38

For reference, Democrats lost the 2016 congressional vote 46-54 in 2016.

I would estimate Democrats pick up PA-05, PA-06, PA-07, PA-01, PA-17, with competitive but r-tilting races in PA-10 and PA-16.

Encouraging. Cartwright should be safe in PA-08 with those statewide numbers as well.

FWIW, Muhlenberg has an A rating from 538.

[Hindsight was 2020]

NBC: D+7
"Ethusasim for midterm" D:66% v R:49%
 https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-shows-democrats-have-midterm-intensity-advantage-no-knockout-yet-n865916

[Dr. Arch]

NBC: D+7
"Ethusasim for midterm" D:66% v R:49%
 https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-shows-democrats-have-midterm-intensity-advantage-no-knockout-yet-n865916

Huge gap

[junior chįmp]

NBC: D+7
"Ethusasim for midterm" D:66% v R:49%
 https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-shows-democrats-have-midterm-intensity-advantage-no-knockout-yet-n865916

Huge gap

"That's the exact opposite of 2010, before the GOP wave, when
66% of Republicans showed high interest
49% of Democrats "

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Lmao "No knockout"

[Doimper]

Lmao "No knockout"

The spin in action.

[GeorgiaModerate]

What I think is most telling in these polls is not just the margin in favor of the Democrats but the enthusiasm gap in their favor, as well as the greatly increased motivation among young voters.  If these hold up until November, most of the races that currently look close are going to break Democratic.  It also means that anyone using a likely voter model based on the past two midterms is going to be way, way off.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

What I think is most telling in these polls is not just the margin in favor of the Democrats but the enthusiasm gap in their favor, as well as the greatly increased motivation among young voters.  If these hold up until November, most of the races that currently look close are going to break Democratic.  It also means that anyone using a likely voter model based on the past two midterms is going to be way, way off.

^ This

[Badger]

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Personally, I think a 41 to 56 approval / disapproval rating in this District is probably pretty close too accurate. It's only a 12 point drop from his election totals, and Trump was able to get a good number of people who disapproved of him to vote for him because they disliked Clinton more.

[LimoLiberal]

ABC/WashingtonPost Poll: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-democrats-advantage-in-midterm-elections-has-been-cut-more-than-half/2018/04/15/5450d99e-3f6e-11e8-8d53-eba0ed2371cc_story.html?utm_term=.f83264c71cc2

Among RV

Democrats - 47
Republicans - 43

D+4. It was D+12 in January.

[Gass3268]

ABC/WashingtonPost Poll: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-democrats-advantage-in-midterm-elections-has-been-cut-more-than-half/2018/04/15/5450d99e-3f6e-11e8-8d53-eba0ed2371cc_story.html?utm_term=.f83264c71cc2

Among RV

Democrats - 47
Republicans - 43

D+4. It was D+12 in January.

This same poll also is D+7 in Cook Political Report competitive seats. I wonder if Republicans are over performing in their super safe seat?

https://twitter.com/PostPolls/status/985880138914115584

[BudgieForce]

The advantage with all adults is +10 which makes me curious why their registered voter screen filtered out so many people.

[henster]

Haven’t most GCB polls been adults anyways?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Haven’t most GCB polls been adults anyways?

No, in most cases they're registered voters.

[KingSweden]

The advantage with all adults is +10 which makes me curious why their registered voter screen filtered out so many people.

Only 2014 voters, maybe?

[GeorgiaModerate]

The advantage with all adults is +10 which makes me curious why their registered voter screen filtered out so many people.

Only 2014 voters, maybe?

I could see that in a likely voter screen (although it would be inaccurate this year).  But a registered voter screen should be as simple as "are you registered to vote? yes/no".

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I'd rather be having alarmingly close polls now rather than the final week a-la 2016. I barely slept the entire beginning of November that year.

[BudgieForce]

I'd rather be having alarmingly close polls now rather than the final week a-la 2016. I barely slept the entire beginning of November that year.

And I wouldn't call it alarmingly close just yet. A +3(Quinnipiac), +4(ABC) and a +7(NBC) in mid April is consistent with a Dem advantage. At this point you'd expect some fluctuations. If +3 or less becomes the average though, then dems should start to worry.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/985910755764637699

[LimoLiberal]

Monmouth New Jersey Poll: https://t.co/zwSzT8Euuy

Statewide Congressional Generic Ballot:

Democrats - 54
Republicans - 35

In GOP-held seats:

Democrats - 44
Republicans - 46

Democrats won the statewide congressional vote 54-46 (D+8) in 2016.