2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Greedo punched first]

Change Research CA-39: Kim 15, Huff 12

why do they keep polling chen?

It was taken just days before he dropped out.

UC Berkeley; CA-25: Knight -10

[Doimper]

McAdams campaign has released a poll showing him down 3 to Love.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

PPP, CA-45: Min +1 over Walters, Porter +2 over Walters

[Landslide Lyndon]

PPP, CA-45: Min +1 over Walters, Porter +2 over Walters

That's a month old poll.

[Greedo punched first]

PPP, CA-45: Min +1 over Walters, Porter +2 over Walters

That's a month old poll.

And an internal poll for Porter.

"Yes or no" "horse race" polls  from UC Berkeley:
CA-07: Bera +4
CA-25: Knight -18
CA-48: Rohrabacher -10

[LimoLiberal]

Gold Standard California PPIC poll

http://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-march-2018/

Generic Ballot

Democrats - 53
Republicans - 39

D+14. In 2016 the aggregated house of reps vote in California was 62-37 (D+25).

[Hindsight was 2020]

Gold Standard California PPIC poll

http://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-march-2018/

Generic Ballot

Democrats - 53
Republicans - 39

So D+14. In 2016 the aggregated house of reps vote in California was 62-37 (D+25). So this poll would represent a 11 point decrease from that for Democrats.

-________________-

[BudgieForce]

Im not sure if LimoLiberal is trolling anymore.

[Jeppe]

Wait is PPIC the gold standard California polling firm or is it another... I think I may be getting confused here.

It’s Survey USA

[BudgieForce]

PPIC is a good pollster. I just take issue with using it to think there will actually be an 11 point rightward shift in California.

[LimoLiberal]

BTW, the 538 aggregate has the generic ballot at D+6.2. That's the lowest margin for Democrats since February 5th. I'll be interested to see where that goes the next couple weeks.

[Gass3268]

BTW, the 538 aggregate has the generic ballot at D+6.2. That's the lowest margin for Democrats since February 5th. I'll be interested to see where that goes the next couple weeks.

It's almost like it was preordained:

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

BTW, the 538 aggregate has the generic ballot at D+6.2. That's the lowest margin for Democrats since February 5th. I'll be interested to see where that goes the next couple weeks.

It's almost like it was preordained:

It's scary how close these two graphs are... and the ending looks accurate given the fact that premiums soar right before midterms

[LimoLiberal]

BTW, the 538 aggregate has the generic ballot at D+6.2. That's the lowest margin for Democrats since February 5th. I'll be interested to see where that goes the next couple weeks.

It's almost like it was preordained:

It's scary how close these two graphs are... and the ending looks accurate given the fact that premiums soar right before midterms

Anybody know when the monthly/quarterly job reports come out?

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

BTW, the 538 aggregate has the generic ballot at D+6.2. That's the lowest margin for Democrats since February 5th. I'll be interested to see where that goes the next couple weeks.

It's almost like it was preordained:

It's scary how close these two graphs are... and the ending looks accurate given the fact that premiums soar right before midterms

Anybody know when the monthly/quarterly job reports come out?

The first Friday of every month

[LimoLiberal]

Marist: D+5.

Democrats - 44 (-2)
Republicans - 39 (nc)

It was D+7 a few weeks ago.

[Doimper]

Marist: D+5.

Democrats - 44 (-2)
Republicans - 39 (nc)

It was D+7 a few weeks ago.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The chart is scaring me...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Roll Call says average number of House seats in a midterm is 33 for the opposition party.  The polls will tighten.

However, there is an ethics cloud hanging over the Trump administration that voters will go to the polls with and that's a winning hand for Dems. Which translated to victories in PA-18 and AL-Senate

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Roll Call says average number of House seats in a midterm is 33 for the opposition party.  The polls will tighten.

However, there is an ethics cloud hanging over the Trump administration that voters will go to the polls with and that's a winning hand for Dems. Which translated to victories in PA-18 and AL-Senate

It is highly likely that the Democrats will win way more than just 33 seats.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That's the average.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Roll Call says average number of House seats in a midterm is 33 for the opposition party.  The polls will tighten.

However, there is an ethics cloud hanging over the Trump administration that voters will go to the polls with and that's a winning hand for Dems. Which translated to victories in PA-18 and AL-Senate

It is highly likely that the Democrats will win way more than just 33 seats.

Take out the adverbs and I'll agree.

[BudgieForce]

Who cares that the margin is the same as it was in February? Poll numbers fluctuate due to the MoE. Talk to me in like October.

[KingSweden]

The chart is scaring me...

All hail the chart

[Greedo punched first]

Change Research; CA-39 runoff: Generic R 44, Generic D 43