2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Landslide Lyndon]

Morning Consult

R+1

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/02/14/trump-polling-democrats-republicans-407315

Despite more independents backing dems and more republicans crossing over than dems, this poll somehow spit out R+1. Idk how they managed to poll more Republicans than dems even though dems outnumber republicans by 5%. With a more realistic sample, this poll would be D+6.

Consult feels like a joke pollster with all the crazy high Trump approvals they come out with.

Didn't they also have yesterday Trump with majority approval only in 19 states?
And he was underwater in every big state, except Florida.

[Hindsight was 2020]

As if having Trump barely underwater in Virgina wasn't enough to prove that Morning Consult poll is a joke

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Morning Consult has consistently been R friendly. Taking into account the swings in the special elections, the fundraising numbers, the enthusiasm of the left, and Trump's general unpopularity, I'd say Ispos is more in-line with the current state of the midterms.

Anyways, I expect the vast majority of undecideds to break for the Democrats in November, and Consult's poll shows a lot of them.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The Hill is already ovulating over the MC poll...

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign-polls/373761-poll-gop-erases-dem-advantage-on-generic-ballot-ahead-of-midterms

[Person Man]

Who is this undecided? Can they run in all 468 Congressional seats up for election?

[Arkansas Yankee]

PA 18 will be the first good test.   Trump is almost even in approval in PA in the Morning consult poll.  Both parties are significantly involved.nt the issue.  What

I believe the Democrats need to take Trump’s bargain on immigration, if they do not want a backlash.  The majority actually support the parts of the bargain.  Then you can hope Trump’s base revolts against nearly 2 million in effect given amnesty.

But then what do I know about how Democrats think?  You may want the issue.  Whatever!

[LimoLiberal]

Just putting this here so we have a record: https://twitter.com/meredithk27/status/963614105717362688

Cathy McMorris-Rodgers: 47
Lisa Brown: 43

-6 job approval.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

PA 18 will be the first good test.   Trump is almost even in approval in PA in the Morning consult poll.  Both parties are significantly involved.nt the issue.  What

I believe the Democrats need to take Trump’s bargain on immigration, if they do not want a backlash.  The majority actually support the parts of the bargain.  Then you can hope Trump’s base revolts against nearly 2 million in effect given amnesty.

But then what do I know about how Democrats think?  You may want the issue.  Whatever!

PA 18 will be Saccone +8 imo. Trump won it by almost 20 and the gop is investing a ton into it.

[Arkansas Yankee]

PA 18 will be the first good test.   Trump is almost even in approval in PA in the Morning consult poll.  Both parties are significantly involved.nt the issue.  What

I believe the Democrats need to take Trump’s bargain on immigration, if they do not want a backlash.  The majority actually support the parts of the bargain.  Then you can hope Trump’s base revolts against nearly 2 million in effect given amnesty.

But then what do I know about how Democrats think?  You may want the issue.  Whatever!

I do not think Trump won it by 20..  I can not check it now, as I am headed to a Bible study.

PA 18 will be Saccone +8 imo. Trump won it by almost 20 and the gop is investing a ton into it.

[Gass3268]

Wait, so a poll where Trump won the sample by 7% has Republicans up by 1%? This is a good thing for Republicans?

My lord this poll is trash!

[LimoLiberal]

PA 18 will be the first good test.   Trump is almost even in approval in PA in the Morning consult poll.  Both parties are significantly involved.nt the issue.  What

I believe the Democrats need to take Trump’s bargain on immigration, if they do not want a backlash.  The majority actually support the parts of the bargain.  Then you can hope Trump’s base revolts against nearly 2 million in effect given amnesty.

But then what do I know about how Democrats think?  You may want the issue.  Whatever!

PA 18 will be Saccone +8 imo. Trump won it by almost 20 and the gop is investing a ton into it.

[Arkansas Yankee]

PA 18 will be the first good test.   Trump is almost even in approval in PA in the Morning consult poll.  Both parties are significantly involved.nt the issue.  What

I believe the Democrats need to take Trump’s bargain on immigration, if they do not want a backlash.  The majority actually support the parts of the bargain.  Then you can hope Trump’s base revolts against nearly 2 million in effect given amnesty.

But then what do I know about how Democrats think?  You may want the issue.  Whatever!

I do not think Trump won it by 20..  I can not check it now, as I am headed to a Bible study.

PA 18 will be Saccone +8 imo. Trump won it by almost 20 and the gop is investing a ton into it.

If he did, the swing will count.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

PA 18 will be the first good test.   Trump is almost even in approval in PA in the Morning consult poll.  Both parties are significantly involved.nt the issue.  What

I believe the Democrats need to take Trump’s bargain on immigration, if they do not want a backlash.  The majority actually support the parts of the bargain.  Then you can hope Trump’s base revolts against nearly 2 million in effect given amnesty.

But then what do I know about how Democrats think?  You may want the issue.  Whatever!

I do not think Trump won it by 20..  I can not check it now, as I am headed to a Bible study.

PA 18 will be Saccone +8 imo. Trump won it by almost 20 and the gop is investing a ton into it.

This exactly, 53-45 Saccone.

[BudgieForce]

Morning Consult isnt a joke pollster, they're just not very good. They never released any state polls in 2016 and their national daily tracker was questionable at best.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I heard on Twitter that PPP has a new poll that has dems up 8 on CGB

[Littlefinger]

PPP: D 49/41

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/democrats-lead-8-points-generic-house-ballot-nationally/

[Gass3268]

PPP: D 49/41

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/democrats-lead-8-points-generic-house-ballot-nationally/

A 3 point swing from the Democratic peak in December, which isn't bad. Democrats lost 2 points, Republicans gained 1.

[KingSweden]

+8 in the GCB is not bad in a poll where Pres approvals are only -6

[Brittain33]

PA 18 will be the first good test.   Trump is almost even in approval in PA in the Morning consult poll.  Both parties are significantly involved.nt the issue.  What

I believe the Democrats need to take Trump’s bargain on immigration, if they do not want a backlash.  The majority actually support the parts of the bargain.  Then you can hope Trump’s base revolts against nearly 2 million in effect given amnesty.

But then what do I know about how Democrats think?  You may want the issue.  Whatever!

Do you think that failing to get forensic analysis on the yearbook set the Dems back on the generic ballot, Arkansas Yankee? That could explain the R+1 we're now citing.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult

R+1

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/02/14/trump-polling-democrats-republicans-407315

This is probably what the final result will look like, because if you compare the Generic ballot polling of 2014 and 2016 with today, theirs a shocking correlation (Democrats were leading most of the cycle until the last month or so).

the election is in November, not in March, though?

Not to mention the major difference: the Democrats controlled the White House during those two elections, and they don't this year.  The out-party typically gets a boost in midterms.

[LimoLiberal]

Yougov went from D+6 to D+4.

[LimoLiberal]

PPP for Matt Heinz in AZ-02 (McSally's old seat)

Both Dems are matched up against Lea Marquez Peterson, presumed R nominee

Heinz (D) leads by 14 (45-31)

Kirkpatrick (D) leads by 9 (43-34)

Trump is only below water in job approval 45-51. He lost AZ-02 45-50.

https://www.scribd.com/document/371462388/AZ-02-PPP-D-for-Matt-Heinz-Feb-2018

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

"only" below water. a -9 approval in ARIZONA is enough for it to flip for even the most mediocre Dem candidate.

[LimoLiberal]

"only" below water. a -9 approval in ARIZONA is enough for it to flip for even the most mediocre Dem candidate.

He is -6 in job approval in a district he lost by 5. That bodes well for him statewide. I think you're misunderstanding my post.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

"only" below water. a -9 approval in ARIZONA is enough for it to flip for even the most mediocre Dem candidate.

He is -6 in job approval in a district he lost by 5. That bodes well for him statewide. I think you're misunderstanding my post.

-6 in a Clinton/Republican district? Wow, that's awesome news for the Democrats!