2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[King Lear]

Quinnipiac:
Democrats 51
Republicans 38

I don't see how the Dems make gains with numbers like this.

It is quite worrying that their are so many undecideds in these polls, this poll has 11% undecideds, and if past elections (ie. 2016 and 2014) are any guide, we know undecideds tend to break Republican. This means that to be safe you really should cut the Democratic lead in half in most of these polls with high undecideds.

[LimoLiberal]

Quinnipiac:
Democrats 51
Republicans 38

I don't see how the Dems make gains with numbers like this.

It is quite worrying that their are so many undecideds in these polls, this poll has 11% undecideds, and if past elections (ie. 2016 and 2014) are any guide, we know undecideds tend to break Republican. This means that to be safe you really should cut the Democratic lead in half in most of these polls with high undecideds.

It is quite worrying for Republicans that their are so many undecideds in these polls, this poll has 11% undecideds, and if past elections (ie. Virginia and Alabama) are any guide, we know undecideds tend to break Democratic. This means that to be safe you really should double the Democratic lead in most of these polls with high undecideds.

[KingSweden]

A Limo vs King Lear pissing match, kill me now

[Ebsy]

A Limo vs King Lear pissing match, kill me now

It's like those threads on reddit where two bots reply to each other endlessly.

[King Lear]

Quinnipiac:
Democrats 51
Republicans 38

I don't see how the Dems make gains with numbers like this.

It is quite worrying that their are so many undecideds in these polls, this poll has 11% undecideds, and if past elections (ie. 2016 and 2014) are any guide, we know undecideds tend to break Republican. This means that to be safe you really should cut the Democratic lead in half in most of these polls with high undecideds.

It is quite worrying for Republicans that their are so many undecideds in these polls, this poll has 11% undecideds, and if past elections (ie. Virginia and Alabama) are any guide, we know undecideds tend to break Democratic. This means that to be safe you really should double the Democratic lead in most of these polls with high undecideds.

Why are you picking a fight with me? don't you realize I'm one of the only people that stick up for you here.

[LimoLiberal]

Quinnipiac:
Democrats 51
Republicans 38

I don't see how the Dems make gains with numbers like this.

It is quite worrying that their are so many undecideds in these polls, this poll has 11% undecideds, and if past elections (ie. 2016 and 2014) are any guide, we know undecideds tend to break Republican. This means that to be safe you really should cut the Democratic lead in half in most of these polls with high undecideds.

It is quite worrying for Republicans that their are so many undecideds in these polls, this poll has 11% undecideds, and if past elections (ie. Virginia and Alabama) are any guide, we know undecideds tend to break Democratic. This means that to be safe you really should double the Democratic lead in most of these polls with high undecideds.

Why are you picking a fight with me? don't you realize I'm one of the only people that stick up for you here.

Friendships are overrated.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

RIP a coveted and forever alive in my heart Atlas relationship

[2016]

Democrats should do well in the current Political Environment. However they have one big Albatros breathing around their necks: Nancy Pelosi. IF Democrats retake the House it would have once again Pelosi as Speaker. Pelosi is even more unpopular than Hillary Clinton was during the 2016 Race. If Republican Congressional Candidates can attach Pelosi to the hip of their Democratic Counterparts Election Night 2018 could still be very close and interesting.

Secondly, for the last four years Congressional Democrats are basically running a single issue Campaign with their "War on Women Crap" & Minimum Wages. That backfired spectacularly in 2014 & 2016 as Men came out in droves to support Republicans & Trump.

[OneJ]

The issue is that for the Republicans, Pelosi has not been proven to negatively affect the Democrats significantly lately. They tried this in both GA-06 and Montana and both those races we're still a lot closer than they probably should've been.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The issue is that for the Republicans, Pelosi has not been proven to negatively affect the Democrats significantly lately. They tried this in both GA-06 and Montana and both those races we're still a lot closer than they probably should've been.

Voters for whom Pelosi is a strong negative are probably motivated Republicans already, so the net effect of focusing on Pelosi is likely to be minor.

[KingSweden]

RIP a coveted and forever alive in my heart Atlas relationship

This seriously cracked me up

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, Jan 21-25, 1960 RV

D 42, R 35 (no change from previous survey)

[UncleSam]

The issue is that for the Republicans, Pelosi has not been proven to negatively affect the Democrats significantly lately. They tried this in both GA-06 and Montana and both those races we're still a lot closer than they probably should've been.

Voters for whom Pelosi is a strong negative are probably motivated Republicans already, so the net effect of focusing on Pelosi is likely to be minor.

Voters for whom Trump is a strong negative are probably motivated Democrats already, so the net effect of focusing on Trump is likely to be minor.

(The above is a patently absurd statement meant to demonstrate the absurdity of another, similarly absurd statement)

[GeorgiaModerate]

The issue is that for the Republicans, Pelosi has not been proven to negatively affect the Democrats significantly lately. They tried this in both GA-06 and Montana and both those races we're still a lot closer than they probably should've been.

Voters for whom Pelosi is a strong negative are probably motivated Republicans already, so the net effect of focusing on Pelosi is likely to be minor.

Voters for whom Trump is a strong negative are probably motivated Democrats already, so the net effect of focusing on Trump is likely to be minor.

(The above is a patently absurd statement meant to demonstrate the absurdity of another, similarly absurd statement)

Not really.  I suspect Trump's disapproval among non-Democrats is higher than Pelosi's among non-Republicans.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Yeah I'm pretty sure far more people know and are annoyed by Trump than Pelosi. Pelosi hasn't gotten nearly as many headlines as Trump (who is omnipresent in the news) in the past year.

[Holmes]

Colorado

https://www.colorado.edu/lab/aprl/sites/default/files/attached-files/2017_colorado_political_climate_report.pdf

Trump approval: 34/63
Generic ballot: Dems 56 / Reps 37

CO-06 and CO-03 fall easily with these numbers. Gardner is also at -23% approval so he might be DOA in 2020.

[LimoLiberal]

Rasmussen is doing some generic ballot polls now.

1/28, 2018 Generic Ballot

Democrats: 45
Republicans: 37

D+8

[King Lear]

Rasmussen is doing some generic ballot polls now.

1/28, 2018 Generic Ballot

Democrats: 45
Republicans: 37

D+8

These numbers are a little better for Democrats then I would expect from Rasmussen, considering their very accurate Likely voter model (which usually screens out Low-turnout Democratic voters). However, I don’t think a 45-37 lead is that impressive for Democrats considering theirs 18% undecided, and if those break Republican, then Democrats would be in big trouble.

[Holmes]

Rasmussen is doing some generic ballot polls now.

1/28, 2018 Generic Ballot

Democrats: 45
Republicans: 37

D+8

These numbers are a little better for Democrats then I would expect from Rasmussen, considering their very accurate Likely voter model (which usually screens out Low-turnout Democratic voters). However, I don’t think a 45-37 lead is that impressive for Democrats considering theirs 18% undecided, and if those break Republican, then Democrats would be in big trouble.

But if those undecideds break Democratic, then It'll be a huge D landslide.

Who knows!

Oh, and one thing that I keep noticing. For an incumbent party, being consistently stuck in the mid to high 30's isn't that great.

[Pericles]

Looks like likely voters are Democrats because of YUGE ENTHUSIASM AND ENERGY and Republicans EMBARASSED AND CHOKING.

[LimoLiberal]

Inside sources are telling me the Democratic generic ballot lead on this poll will be below 5: https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/958556597369868288

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/958556597369868288

The tweet is by Monmouth and it says:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

No need to see what Limo said.

[Pericles]

Looks like likely voters are Democrats because of YUGE ENTHUSIASM AND ENERGY and Republicans EMBARASSED AND CHOKING.

Fixed it.

[LimoLiberal]

Yougov/Economist 1/30

Democrats: 42
Republicans: 37

D+5, not enough to win the House. Collapse.

And Reuters/Ipsos went from D+8 to D+7.

[Brittain33]

Yougov/Economist 1/30

Democrats: 42
Republicans: 37

And Reuters/Ipsos went from D+8 to D+7.

This is an improvement from their previous poll which was

Democrats: 41
Republicans: 37