2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Devout Centrist]

Our lead in the GCB is sub-7 (per 538) for the first time in a long time. Consider me very worried.

Dude, the LV screen on the CNN poll has Democrats up 15. Chill.

[KingSweden]

Our lead in the GCB is sub-7 (per 538) for the first time in a long time. Consider me very worried.

Dude, the LV screen on the CNN poll has Democrats up 15. Chill.

Wasn’t that the enthusiasm gap, rather than the LV screen?

[GeorgiaModerate]

It’s January and there’s nothing better to talk about, I guess, but the pantswetting over a wildly swingy CNN poll isn’t healthy for anyone - nor is arguing over it

Yep. There's 288 days and at least 30 new Trump controversies left until the election.

I'll take the over on the number of controversies.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nate Cohn's thoughts on this:

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And Harry Enten's:

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[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Nate Cohn's thoughts on this:

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And Harry Enten's:

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Everyone needs to stop freaking out.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The same CNN poll mirrors the same edge the Dems had janurary 2006.

[Arkansas Yankee]

2006 and 2018 are quite different midterms.

2006 was GW’s 2nd midterm.  2nd midterms have been often very bad elections for the incumbentPresidential party.  The economy was middling.  The Iraqi  war was not going well. The current tribal nature of the parties had nots set up yet.  Plus there was Mark Foley’s sex scandal.

Regardless of whether Trump is re-elected, 2018 will be his 1st midterm.  There will be no 2nd term drag.
The economy is doing well.   I believe the tax cut will be viewed favorably. A tribal nature of voting has seemingly set up.
 
A Democrat 7.3% generic lead in 2018 might reflect a very different electoral layout than a similar advantage in 2006. Generally the GOP does somewhat better than its generic.  It is also likely that the Democrat advantage may be based on very strong numbers in the northeast and the west coast.   Thus the GOP may do fairly well in Trump carried states and especially in the Senate.

In addition any generic average including a Pew poll is highly suspect.

I understand polls are just a snap shot of the possible election outcome at the time of the poll.

The crazy thing is that most of the posters here, including me, let these polls effect our emotional well being.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Hey Arkansas 1st midterms are normally as bad for president as second

[Virginiá]

2006 was GW’s 2nd midterm.  2nd midterms have been often very bad elections for the incumbentPresidential party.  The economy was middling.  The Iraqi  war was not going well. The current tribal nature of the parties had nots set up yet.  Plus there was Mark Foley’s sex scandal.

I think you are maybe overestimating the number of "locked in" partisans. No doubt they make up a substantial chunk of the electorate, but there are more than enough Independents who are flippable, and these voters are generally the group waves hinge on, and has been true in just about every R/D wave since at least 2006. There also appears to be a pretty big enthusiasm advantage that is not abating. So you're not going to see another 2014-type situation, where Democratic turnout is lagging.

You're right though, the economy is doing well and there is no deeply unpopular war. By all measures, Trump's approval rating and thus the GOP's generic ballot polls should be excellent. But that isn't the case. Your boy Trump and his persistent strong unpopularity is bringing down the house around you guys, what with his constant drama and scandal and all. This is what pundits and analysts keep pointing out - the economy alone indicates a normal, run-of-the-mill president would be enjoying good approval ratings, yet that isn't the case with Trump, and it's no mistake why.


I keep getting this feeling that (and maybe not you per se) many Republicans have gotten so used to midterms always breaking their way (since 10+ years is a long time), and heard so many times in the Obama era that "Republicans gerrymandered a strong majority" and "Democrats don't vote," that you guys have forgotten just how bad things can actually get for an unpopular Republican president and his or her party.

A Democrat 7.3% generic lead in 2018 might reflect a very different electoral layout than a similar advantage in 2006. Generally the GOP does somewhat better than its generic. It is also likely that the Democrat advantage may be based on very strong numbers in the northeast and the west coast.   Thus the GOP may do fairly well in Trump carried states and especially in the Senate.

Not to say I agree with you (I don't), but a lopsided wave that takes place mostly on the West Coast and Northeast would be rather powerful for Democrats. Consider that the 7 - 8 California seats we need, 1 in Arizona, 1 - 2 in Washington, upwards of 3 in Pennsylvania (a new map seems likely, but even without one...), 5 - 6 in New York (?), ~3 in New Jersey, 1 in Maine, and then throw in a decent number of vulnerable seats around the country that would get picked off in any decent year for Democrats, like 2 - 3 in Florida, 1 in Colorado, 1 in Nebraska, 2 in Iowa, and so on...

You see where I'm going with this? A lopsided wave in the areas you suggested may actually be really good for Democrats. It implies that Republicans in the NE and WC are liable to lose seats that seem like Likely R now just because people don't assume it'll be so concentrated, right?

Anyway, just saying.

[J. J.]

 
A Democrat 7.3% generic lead in 2018 might reflect a very different electoral layout than a similar advantage in 2006. Generally the GOP does somewhat better than its generic.  It is also likely that the Democrat advantage may be based on very strong numbers in the northeast and the west coast.   Thus the GOP may do fairly well in Trump carried states and especially in the Senate.

I've already said that I am expecting a 25-30 seat shift in the House to the Democrats.

I go back before 2006 to 1992 and 1994.  In 1992, despite a Clinton victory, the GOP gained 9 seats in the House.  That was the first sign that something might be wrong for the Democrats; in 1994, the GOP gained another 54 seats.

In 2016, the Democrats gained 7 seats in the House, so that might be the sign that they will do very well in 2018.  In part, the Democrats claim that they would take the House and that they thought "only" a 10 seat gain would be a bad night, this hid what would have been a very good sign.

In PA, I would look at these 4 seats, PA-6, PA-7, PA-8, and PA-4.  The latter is because the popular incumbent, Dent, is leaving; Morganelli, if he gets the Democratic nomination, is fairly conservative.  The first three the have a Cook PPI of 1-2 R.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Abc has dems up 12 and winning indies by 16 https://mobile.twitter.com/ThisWeekABC/status/955411033031626752

[Gass3268]

Abc has dems up 12 and winning indies by 16 https://mobile.twitter.com/ThisWeekABC/status/955411033031626752

This seems to be the major finding of this poll:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Abc has dems up 12 and winning indies by 16 https://mobile.twitter.com/ThisWeekABC/status/955411033031626752

This seems to be the major finding of this poll:

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Another one is that the lead is 12 among RV but grows to 14 among LV.  This supports the idea that increased D enthusiasm is filtering into the LV screens.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Abc has dems up 12 and winning indies by 16 https://mobile.twitter.com/ThisWeekABC/status/955411033031626752

This seems to be the major finding of this poll:

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WTF is wrong with you men?

[Holmes]

Nothing from LimoLiberal on this one, but he's happy to tout NRCC internals showing bad Dem numbers.

[Brittain33]

Nothing from LimoLiberal on this one, but he's happy to tout NRCC internals showing bad Dem numbers.

LimoLiberal has posted plenty of poll results that are bad for Republicans.

[KingSweden]

Nothing from LimoLiberal on this one, but he's happy to tout NRCC internals showing bad Dem numbers.

LimoLiberal has posted plenty of poll results that are bad for Republicans.

King Lear is the really bad offender. Limo oscillates

[adrac]

Being up more on likely voters should be very reassuring.

[super6646]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-poll

While Trump's approvals were hurt by the shutdown, it seems as though it has helped the GOP on the generic ballot (now with 6.5 points).

[Gass3268]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-poll

While Trump's approvals were hurt by the shutdown, it seems as though it has helped the GOP on the generic ballot (now with 6.5 points).

No idea why the ABC poll isn't in there.

[Blackacre]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-poll

While Trump's approvals were hurt by the shutdown, it seems as though it has helped the GOP on the generic ballot (now with 6.5 points).

No idea why the ABC poll isn't in there.

It hasnt been updated in a day.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[Brittain33]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-poll

While Trump's approvals were hurt by the shutdown, it seems as though it has helped the GOP on the generic ballot (now with 6.5 points).

No idea why the ABC poll isn't in there.

It hasnt been updated in a day.

No matter how many times I reload.

[Blackacre]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-poll

While Trump's approvals were hurt by the shutdown, it seems as though it has helped the GOP on the generic ballot (now with 6.5 points).

No idea why the ABC poll isn't in there.

It hasnt been updated in a day.

No matter how many times I reload.

To get a sense of how much this will affect the average, the last ABC/WaPo poll was D+11 (this is D+12) and took place October 31st/Nov 1st

[adrac]

It moved it from D+6.7 to D+7.4