2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[TheRocketRaccoon]

USA TODAY/Suffolk has a GCB of D +15 (47-32):

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2018/03/01/voters-vow-elect-congress-stands-up-trump-poll-shows/376578002/

Paging King Lear and LimoLiberal.

[Greedo punched first]

I'm still waiting for CA House primary polls that are not internals. Only CA-49 has one: Applegate 18%, Chavez 17%.

[LimoLiberal]

USA TODAY/Suffolk has a GCB of D +15 (47-32):

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2018/03/01/voters-vow-elect-congress-stands-up-trump-poll-shows/376578002/

Paging King Lear and LimoLiberal.

House and Senate polls don't matchup with the 14-16 point leads on the generic ballot some outlier polls are seeing.

[Holmes]

Special election results do match up though.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

USA TODAY/Suffolk has a GCB of D +15 (47-32):

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2018/03/01/voters-vow-elect-congress-stands-up-trump-poll-shows/376578002/

Paging King Lear and LimoLiberal.

House and Senate polls don't matchup with the 14-16 point leads on the generic ballot some outlier polls are seeing.

This is pathetic even by your usual standards.

[Pericles]

The polls are underestimating Democrats. Called it.

[LimoLiberal]

Special election results do match up though.

Fair. Democrats certainly have the enthusiasm advantage.

[Doimper]

People here are getting way too worked up about a weird kid in high school seeking validation.

[LimoLiberal]

People here are getting way too worked up about a weird kid in high school seeking validation.

Agreed. I think the main thing is that I have a democratic avatar (and am a democrat) but I am not rosy about their chances in November. I think it would be fine if I had a republican avatar, but that would be dishonest.

[Virginiá]

People here are getting way too worked up about a weird kid in high school seeking validation.

Agreed. I think the main thing is that I have a democratic avatar (and am a democrat) but I am not rosy about their chances in November. I think it would be fine if I had a republican avatar, but that would be dishonest.

Fake news!

You deliberately try to provoke people with hot takes on practically every single poll you post. You have also practically admitted (implicitly and more) that you troll. If you wanted to be more professional about it, you should stop editorializing every single data point as if you can actually predict what will happen from that. So saying "collapse!" "very bad news for Democrats" just because one poll came out is not only annoying (as you well know) but stupid as well. To take your shtick seriously for a moment, I mean, for every +2 or +1 from Rasmussen you can muster, there are double digit polls from QU, CNN and such, so all your hot takes really say is that you have an idea of the midterm that you prefer to stick to even though it's at best no better than 50% chance at being right, although arguably notably less given that the only thing you can use to back up your idea is a few polls here and there whereas everyone is using a combination of polls and the fundamentals (enthusiasm, special election wins, midterm dynamic, presidential approvals, recruiting/fundraising, etc).

(sorry people who have LL on ignore, plz forgive)

[LimoLiberal]

People here are getting way too worked up about a weird kid in high school seeking validation.

Agreed. I think the main thing is that I have a democratic avatar (and am a democrat) but I am not rosy about their chances in November. I think it would be fine if I had a republican avatar, but that would be dishonest.

Fake news!

You deliberately try to provoke people with hot takes on practically every single poll you post. You have also practically admitted (implicitly and more) that you troll. If you wanted to be more professional about it, you should stop editorializing every single data point as if you can actually predict what will happen from that. So saying "collapse!" "very bad news for Democrats" just because one poll came out is not only annoying (as you well know) but stupid as well. To take your shtick seriously for a moment, I mean, for every +2 or +1 from Rasmussen you can muster, there are double digit polls from QU, CNN and such, so all your hot takes really say is that you have an idea of the midterm that you prefer to stick to even though it's at best no better than 50% chance at being right, although arguably notably less given that the only thing you can use to back up your idea is a few polls here and there whereas everyone is using a combination of polls and the fundamentals (enthusiasm, special election wins, midterm dynamic, presidential approvals, recruiting/fundraising, etc).

(sorry people who have LL on ignore, plz forgive)

Well I said that my partisan affiliation was "mainly" the issue. I still believe that if I posted the same things with a blue avatar, less people would respond so angrily.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

D+50 seats. Take a picture if you can.

Btw, same poll shows 58% want a rep who OPPOSES Trump... wow.

[Gass3268]

There are some new PEW numbers on generational differences on different political issues and the generic congressional numbers from their January poll. I’ll post them later, but they are terrifying for Republicans. Millennials are just as motivated to vote this year as Boomers and Xers, only behind Silents, and they overwhelmingly support Democrats.

[junior chįmp]

There are some new PEW numbers on generational differences on different political issues and the generic congressional numbers from their January poll. I’ll post them later, but they are terrifying for Republicans. Millennials are just as motivated to vote this year as Boomers and Xers, only behind Silents, and they overwhelmingly support Democrats.

That should of been obvious for Republicans looking at the VA GOV turnout numbers for Millennials

They're gonna get romped in November

[LimoLiberal]

Pew: Dems +14

From January.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Pew: Dems +14

From January.

You got me there (f*** you) but I can guarantee you it's probably bigger now.

[Gass3268]

Pew: Dems +14

From January.

Yup, during the middle of the holiday/tax bump! Imagine how much worse it is now!

[Doimper]

Ojeda apparently has internal polling that shows him winning Republicans

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[Holmes]

I can see Ojeda winning the seat, and by a larger margin than conventional wisdom dictates, but also winning Republican voters? I don't know. He should hire another pollster to get a second opinion.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I can see Ojeda winning the seat, and by a larger margin than conventional wisdom dictates, but also winning Republican voters? I don't know. He should hire another pollster to get a second opinion.

I'm surprised he had enough money to hire this one.

[junior chįmp]

https://www.twitter.com/GravisMarketing/status/969612843019636736

[Holmes]

https://www.twitter.com/GravisMarketing/status/969612843019636736

Wasn't their last PA-18 poll their "final" one?

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[Doimper]

I can see Ojeda winning the seat, and by a larger margin than conventional wisdom dictates, but also winning Republican voters? I don't know. He should hire another pollster to get a second opinion.

I'm surprised he had enough money to hire this one.

Yeah, he's not doing well financially. Makes sense, since the Manchin machine hates him and the DCCC isn't going to give a dime to a Trump voter, but money can only go so far in a rural West Virginian district.

[Greedo punched first]

FM3 Research CA-49 primary poll (D internal); Applegate still Democratic frontrunner
Poll #1: Chavez and Harkey, 18%; possible R vs. R runoff
Poll #2: Applegate, 19%; Chavez and Harkey, 17%