2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Brittain33]

This is fascinating. The Upshot at the NYT estimates that the impact of court-ordered redistricting in Pa., Va., Florida, and NC, Republican retirements, and Democratic recruitments has added the equivalent of 2 points to the Democratic advantage on the generic ballot. In other words, it's made it easier for Democrats to take control equivalent to 2 points on the generic ballot but in a way that won't show up in the polls.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/12/upshot/big-republican-advantages-are-eroding-in-the-race-for-house-control.html

Funny how the gerrymandering of California and Maryland is ok but NC and VA isn’t.

1. California isn't gerrymandered.
2. Maryland is actually being challenged in the courts and could be overturned along with a bunch of other maps, FWIW.
3. Nothing in the article nor my summary said anything about gerrymandering being ok or Dem gerrymandering being ok. There is no value judgment. (That said, I'm on the record everywhere that gerrymandering sucks whoever does it.)
4. No one mentioned Ohio, either. Does that mean they're ok with that Republican gerrymander?

[Dr. Arch]

This is fascinating. The Upshot at the NYT estimates that the impact of court-ordered redistricting in Pa., Va., Florida, and NC, Republican retirements, and Democratic recruitments has added the equivalent of 2 points to the Democratic advantage on the generic ballot. In other words, it's made it easier for Democrats to take control equivalent to 2 points on the generic ballot but in a way that won't show up in the polls.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/12/upshot/big-republican-advantages-are-eroding-in-the-race-for-house-control.html

Funny how the gerrymandering of California and Maryland is ok but NC and VA isn’t.

California wasn’t gerrymandered.

Exactly, lol. What hackish thing to say. You know if CA were gerrymandered, Ds would have another 10 seats or something around those lines.

[Young Conservative]

This is fascinating. The Upshot at the NYT estimates that the impact of court-ordered redistricting in Pa., Va., Florida, and NC, Republican retirements, and Democratic recruitments has added the equivalent of 2 points to the Democratic advantage on the generic ballot. In other words, it's made it easier for Democrats to take control equivalent to 2 points on the generic ballot but in a way that won't show up in the polls.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/12/upshot/big-republican-advantages-are-eroding-in-the-race-for-house-control.html

Funny how the gerrymandering of California and Maryland is ok but NC and VA isn’t.

California wasn’t gerrymandered.

Just because it has a “nonpartisan districting Committee” doesn’t mean it isn’t gerrymandered. Especially when criteria for districting is matching so called “communities of interest.”

[Brittain33]

This is fascinating. The Upshot at the NYT estimates that the impact of court-ordered redistricting in Pa., Va., Florida, and NC, Republican retirements, and Democratic recruitments has added the equivalent of 2 points to the Democratic advantage on the generic ballot. In other words, it's made it easier for Democrats to take control equivalent to 2 points on the generic ballot but in a way that won't show up in the polls.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/12/upshot/big-republican-advantages-are-eroding-in-the-race-for-house-control.html

Funny how the gerrymandering of California and Maryland is ok but NC and VA isn’t.

California wasn’t gerrymandered.

Just because it has a “nonpartisan districting Committee” doesn’t mean it isn’t gerrymandered. Especially when criteria for districting is matching so called “communities of interest.”

Nevertheless, California wasn't gerrymandered.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

This is fascinating. The Upshot at the NYT estimates that the impact of court-ordered redistricting in Pa., Va., Florida, and NC, Republican retirements, and Democratic recruitments has added the equivalent of 2 points to the Democratic advantage on the generic ballot. In other words, it's made it easier for Democrats to take control equivalent to 2 points on the generic ballot but in a way that won't show up in the polls.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/12/upshot/big-republican-advantages-are-eroding-in-the-race-for-house-control.html

Funny how the gerrymandering of California and Maryland is ok but NC and VA isn’t.

California wasn’t gerrymandered.

Just because it has a “nonpartisan districting Committee” doesn’t mean it isn’t gerrymandered. Especially when criteria for districting is matching so called “communities of interest.”

You have yet to put forth a shred of evidence that CA is gerrymandered.

[Jeppe]

Matching up communities of interest actually works in favour of Republicans, because those black, Hispanic communities have to be in the same seat, basically packing Democratic voters into D+30, when they could be used to create multiple D+7 seats in the same area.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Democrats would have 10 more safe seats in California if it was gerrymandered in favor of democrats.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/california/#Dem

Young Conservative, do you ever start to feel bad whenever you post nonsense that is easily disproven? You do this a lot.

[IceSpear]

DOOOOOOOOOM

In all seriousness that’s a good poll, but it’s only one poll; and I’m not getting excited unless I see corroboration

It's February. You shouldn't get excited (or bummed) regardless.

[UncleSam]

How is it possible to look at the grotesque shapes that are California's congressional districts and not conclude it is gerrymandered.

Just because it doesn't increase partisan advantage in one direction or the other doesn't make a map ok. Districts should be drawn based on county lines, compactness, and keeping traditional communities together. California's map (along with most others in this country) fails to do that spectacularly.

[American2020]

https://www.vox.com/mischiefs-of-faction/2018/2/12/17001984/forecast-good-news-dems

[Landslide Lyndon]

How is it possible to look at the grotesque shapes that are California's congressional districts and not conclude it is gerrymandered.

Just because it doesn't increase partisan advantage in one direction or the other doesn't make a map ok. Districts should be drawn based on county lines, compactness, and keeping traditional communities together. California's map (along with most others in this country) fails to do that spectacularly.

VRA.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Rothenberg on the generic ballot: https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/the-generic-is-falling-the-generic-is-falling

Subtitle: A deeper look at polling shows a fairly consistent Democratic advantage.

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/963444553964511232

Yikes. Red alert.

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[Ebsy]

who care about partisan polls?

[Brittain33]

who care about partisan polls?

It's a Dem group, isn't it?

[LimoLiberal]

who care about partisan polls?

It's a Dem group, isn't it?

People are willfully ignoring evidence.

[Ebsy]

The amount of projection from limoliberal onto better posters is sort of incredible.

[Pericles]

Dems will win the House, calling it. It's a wave and will only get bigger. LimoLiberal will be humiliated and make an 'apology'. Nail it down, bookmark it, carve it in, it will happen.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, Feb 8-12, 1268 RV

D 43, R 35 (D+8)

Previous poll was D 42, R 37

[LimoLiberal]

Ipsos/Reuters, Feb 8-12, 1268 RV

D 43, R 35 (D+8)

Previous poll was D 42, R 37

538 average is up to D+7. I wonder when that Priorities USA poll was taken.

[KingSweden]

Ipsos/Reuters, Feb 8-12, 1268 RV

D 43, R 35 (D+8)

Previous poll was D 42, R 37

538 average is up to D+7. I wonder when that Priorities USA poll was taken.

I don’t believe 538 includes internal polls in their average

[Gass3268]

Ipsos/Reuters, Feb 8-12, 1268 RV

D 43, R 35 (D+8)

Previous poll was D 42, R 37

538 average is up to D+7. I wonder when that Priorities USA poll was taken.

I don’t believe 538 includes internal polls in their average

I actually think the Garin-Hart-Yang / Global Strategy Group D+4 poll is the Priorities USA poll.

[LimoLiberal]

Morning Consult

R+1

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/02/14/trump-polling-democrats-republicans-407315

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Morning Consult

R+1

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/02/14/trump-polling-democrats-republicans-407315

Despite more independents backing dems and more republicans crossing over than dems, this poll somehow spit out R+1. Idk how they managed to poll more Republicans than dems even though dems outnumber republicans by 5%. With a more realistic sample, this poll would be D+6.

Consult feels like a joke pollster with all the crazy high Trump approvals they come out with.

[Horus]

So Consult swings toward the GOP while Reuters swings toward the Dems? Taking into account the Dem victory in Florida yesterday, and the decent results in Minnesota Monday, I'm inclined to believe the numbers haven't changed much.