KY, MS etc. Results Thread

[Ebsy]

If AA turnout remained as high as in 2018, would Hood have won?

No, but it should have been a bit closer.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Don't forget Austria has an odd curiosity about Kentucky because it's shaped like a mutant Austria.

It's shaped like KY or VA, but KY is a better comparison.

Or ID, if you move the map by 90° ...

That's far too much work though.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/seungminkim/status/1192172785180774400?s=20

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/seungminkim/status/1192172785180774400?s=20

Reminding you of someone?

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/gelles/status/1192165518494568449

lol k

[Xing]

If the margin were 50 votes rather than 5,000, maybe a recanvass would change things, but a margin like this isn't going to change.

[GeorgiaModerate]

One Vote (Apparently) Gives Democrats Council Control in Pence's Hometown

Democrats will hold a City Council majority in Vice President Mike Pence's Indiana hometown for the first time since the 1980s if a candidate's one-vote victory margin holds up.

Unofficial results from Tuesday's local election show Democrats winning a 4-3 Columbus City Council majority as they defeated two Republican incumbents. The (Columbus) Republic reports that Republican Councilman Dascal Bunch might seek a recount of the 260-259 tally favoring Democrat Jerone Wood.

https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2019/11/06/us/politics/ap-us-pence-hometown-democrats.html

[UncleSam]

Ya 5k votes is an ironclad lead going into a recount. If it was in the hundreds then maybe (though it would still be unlikely).

[Bojack Horseman]

If the margin were 50 votes esther than 5,000, maybe a recanvass would change things, but a margin like this isn't going to change.

From what I’ve been reading, he’s trying to prove that there were irregularities so that the Kentucky Legislature has a reason to intervene and declare Bevin the winner, like what would have happened in North Carolina in 2016 if Cooper had won by less than 10,000 votes.

[Landslide Lyndon]

If the margin were 50 votes esther than 5,000, maybe a recanvass would change things, but a margin like this isn't going to change.

From what I’ve been reading, he’s trying to prove that there were irregularities so that the Kentucky Legislature has a reason to intervene and declare Bevin the winner, like what would have happened in North Carolina in 2016 if Cooper had won by less than 10,000 votes.

Why would Republicans in legislature do that when they hate Bevin almost as much as Democrats?
And it's not like Beshear will have any power to stymie their agenda, so even less reason to stick their necks out for a guy they constantly feuded with for the last four years.

[2016]

Best two things that happened last Night is Daniel Cameron elected Attorney General and the State finally gets rid of that Clown SoS Mrs Alison Lundergan-Grimes.

[Bidenworth2020]

Please tell me Bevin isn't gonna steal this...

[President Johnson]

If the margin were 50 votes esther than 5,000, maybe a recanvass would change things, but a margin like this isn't going to change.

From what I’ve been reading, he’s trying to prove that there were irregularities so that the Kentucky Legislature has a reason to intervene and declare Bevin the winner, like what would have happened in North Carolina in 2016 if Cooper had won by less than 10,000 votes.

Wut? The legislature can just declare a winner? I don't think this is sustainable in court if they attempted to do so without hard proof there were irregularities. Bevin should accept his defeat and move on. He screwed his term up and got what he deserved.

[Bojack Horseman]

If the margin were 50 votes esther than 5,000, maybe a recanvass would change things, but a margin like this isn't going to change.

From what I’ve been reading, he’s trying to prove that there were irregularities so that the Kentucky Legislature has a reason to intervene and declare Bevin the winner, like what would have happened in North Carolina in 2016 if Cooper had won by less than 10,000 votes.

Wut? The legislature can just declare a winner? I don't think this is sustainable in court if they attempted to do so without hard proof there were irregularities. Bevin should accept his defeat and move on. He screwed his term up and got what he deserved.

In both states the legislature can decide the result of a contested election with serious irregularities. That happened in North Carolina in the 2005 superintendent of public instruction election.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If the margin were 50 votes esther than 5,000, maybe a recanvass would change things, but a margin like this isn't going to change.

From what I’ve been reading, he’s trying to prove that there were irregularities so that the Kentucky Legislature has a reason to intervene and declare Bevin the winner, like what would have happened in North Carolina in 2016 if Cooper had won by less than 10,000 votes.

Wut? The legislature can just declare a winner? I don't think this is sustainable in court if they attempted to do so without hard proof there were irregularities. Bevin should accept his defeat and move on. He screwed his term up and got what he deserved.

In both states the legislature can decide the result of a contested election with serious irregularities. That happened in North Carolina in the 2005 superintendent of public instruction election.

Who decides whether there are "serious irregularities"? The SoS doesn't seem to believe so and no serious judge would either.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Best two things that happened last Night is Daniel Cameron elected Attorney General and the State finally gets rid of that Clown SoS Mrs Alison Lundergan-Grimes.

You must be so proud of your party, what an impressive feat for Republicans to win in Kentucky and Mississippi. Democrats are sure doomed

[cg41386]

Please tell me Bevin isn't gonna steal this...

There is literally no way he can. He’s just going to prolong it.

[Bidenworth2020]

Best two things that happened last Night is Daniel Cameron elected Attorney General and the State finally gets rid of that Clown SoS Mrs Alison Lundergan-Grimes.

You must be so proud of your party, what an impressive feat for Republicans to win in Kentucky and Mississippi. Democrats are sure doomed

Not only that, but the SOS win was seriously unimpressive considering they basically had a generic R. AG win and margin was pretty impressive, admittedly.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Best two things that happened last Night is Daniel Cameron elected Attorney General and the State finally gets rid of that Clown SoS Mrs Alison Lundergan-Grimes.

You must be so proud of your party, what an impressive feat for Republicans to win in Kentucky and Mississippi. Democrats are sure doomed

Not only that, but the SOS win was seriously unimpressive considering they basically had a generic R. AG win and margin was pretty impressive, admittedly.

The Trump 2016 margin was cut in half in that race. I get that KY is more Democrat friendly downballot, but if picking up KY-AG, KY-SOS, and MS-AG are the Republicans’ bright spots for the night, that’s pretty damn embarrassing

[Bidenworth2020]

Best two things that happened last Night is Daniel Cameron elected Attorney General and the State finally gets rid of that Clown SoS Mrs Alison Lundergan-Grimes.

You must be so proud of your party, what an impressive feat for Republicans to win in Kentucky and Mississippi. Democrats are sure doomed

Not only that, but the SOS win was seriously unimpressive considering they basically had a generic R. AG win and margin was pretty impressive, admittedly.

The Trump 2016 margin was cut in half in that race. I get that KY is more Democrat friendly downballot, but if picking up KY-AG, KY-SOS, and MS-AG are the Republicans’ bright spots for the night, that’s pretty damn embarrassing

Stumbo was a star candidate for Dems and had won AG before, but Cameron was pretty good too. I'd still say good R performance all things considered.

[bilaps]

It is plausible if Trump had not gotten involved Bevin might have lost by 4-5% and the dems might have won the SOS race.

It's also plausible that if Trump had stayed away, Democrats might have been slightly less energized, and it would have only taken a small difference to give Bevin the win.  Neither assertion is provable.

Common sense is difficult to prove.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

I haven't read the entire thread but has nobody made the connection that Bevin is unpopular because he's trying to take away people's healthcare? Downballot nobodies can get away with this because they weren't the public face of dismantling a popular government program.

People are acting like Bevin is unpopular because he's ugly or he smells bad or something like that. He's unpopular for a reason! And that reason is a thing that also makes Donald Trump unpopular! Bevin doesn't operate in a vaccuum - he is the way he is because he's a Republican and Republicans think poor people shouldn't have subsidized health care. So does Donald Trump. So do many Republicans. Similar things will happen in 2020.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I haven't read the entire thread but has nobody made the connection that Bevin is unpopular because he's trying to take away people's healthcare? Downballot nobodies can get away with this because they weren't the public face of dismantling a popular government program.

People are acting like Bevin is unpopular because he's ugly or he smells bad or something like that. He's unpopular for a reason! And that reason is a thing that also makes Donald Trump unpopular! Bevin doesn't operate in a vaccuum - he is the way he is because he's a Republican and Republicans think poor people shouldn't have subsidized health care. So does Donald Trump. So do many Republicans. Similar things will happen in 2020.

Nope, haven't really seen the take that it's because he's trying to take away people's healthcare

[NOVA Green]

Hughes spent the last 2 years running for LG and is going to do worse than the no-name Dems who ran further down the ballot.  Sheesh. 

I know right?

One_J was wondering if you were going to pop up on Election Night, considering we have a small handful of informed posters from MS including yourself and Del Tachi that are likely to actually pop up on election nights....

What's your current take on the election results you are seeing from the ground thus far?

Granted, I always put a caveat when it comes to lower turnout elections, without seeing where turnout patterns are and historical results by precinct.

2020 I would expect turnout to be much higher within MS than within a GOV election.

Key question for 2020, would be where will turnout improve at higher levels, considering that the MS-GOV election was much closer than many might have expected....

Based on the margins, this is a good result for Democrats.  Based out on the outcome, its a bad result for Democrats in that they lost their only statewide office and didn't make any significant gains in the legislature.

Generally, Hoods seems to have improved over Espy with educated Whites + some of his ancestral NEMS homeland, while falling behind in majority Black areas.  Hood netted 40k votes in Hinds County last night while Espy netted 53k there in the runoff last year.  Definitely seems like there were some Black Democrats left on the table that Hood could have turned-out better.

Unrelated, but Democrats look like they'll gain HD-64.  This is the closest thing that MS has to a "Romney-Clinton" suburban district.  Democrats will also gain SD-22 (majority Black district that has historically elected moderate Republicans).  Dems will probably each have one seat on the Transportation and Public Service commissions as well.

Thanks for that update, since I hadn't delved into the MS HD and SD results last night.

It was interesting though watching Madison County flip as the results came in since it is the Highest income county in MS (MHI for a family $ ~66k/Yr), the highest % of people with a Bachelor's Degree of Higher (46%), the highest % in MGMT occupations (11%), business (6%), legal (2.6%), and 2nd in Health Care (8%).

Granted it's *only* 57% "White" and 38% "Black", but still makes one wonder if places like MS HD-58 might be potentially competitive in the future.... (MHI $83k/Yr).

Obviously we won't have precinct results for awhile from MS, but it might be interesting to see what the MS-GOV results were from HD-58....

[Sir Mohamed]

Has Bevin provided any substantial evidence for the irregularities he's claiming? This looks like a sore loser who can't accept defeat and puts his own ego over the voters decision. Smells like NC-gov 2016. Dude should concede, ensure a smooth transition and move on.