Northern Ireland General Discussion

[ObserverIE]

That might have been true twenty years ago but the median Alliance voter of twenty years ago is not the median Alliance voter of now - predominantly neutral or very soft nationalist on the border issue but for whom it's not a priority, and closer to the SDLP than to any of the other parties. As far as tactical voting goes, it's not as if Claire Hanna's majority last time was predominantly based on SDLP votes.

In all of the seats Alliance could conceivably win at this election, their challengers are the DUP (or in the case of North Down, a DUP-backed independent). Yes, they will be grateful for as many nationalist tactical votes as they can get, but at the end of the day, these are all seats with a clear Protestant majority, and accordingly you need to get a lot of unionist votes if you want to win them. A pact with Sinn Fein would be the safest way for Alliance to ensure they didn’t win a single Westminster seat.

I don’t think your point about the SDLP is a counter to what I said (except that yes, I was admittedly perhaps wrong to assert that Alliance’s core supporters were necessarily unionists — of course the ‘moderate’ part still stands); they are, needless to say, a very different kettle of fish from Sinn Fein, especially someone like Claire Hanna, who has been extremely critical of the more ostentatiously nationalist elements within her own party, let alone Sinn Fein.

"Protestant" is not the shorthand for "Unionist" that it used to be, especially since Brexit and we're not talking in any case about a formal pact between Alliance and SF rather than an awareness on the part of voters of both sides as to who not to let in.

My view of the Hanna/O'Toole wing of the SDLP is that they are a bunch of strategic dunces who got lucky in 2019 - largely because the now-reviled Alastair McDonnell spent three decades getting the SDLP into the position of being the most obvious non-Unionist option in Belfast South - and who have absolutely no understanding of where their party's core vote is and a fixation on emulating the slow-motion car crash that is the Irish Labour Party. Hanna's majority was the product of tactical votes from both SF and Alliance voters, both of whose parties outpoll the SDLP in local and Assembly elections in Belfast South, and where if Unionism falls back to the point of no longer being a credible threat to the Westminster seat Hanna's vote is likely to sublimate along with it in short order.

[EastAnglianLefty]

The UUP having the most votes transferred (42k!) and the most votes transfer within ticket (nearly 14k!) is a great demonstration that they keep running far too many candidates and keep hurting from leakage. Every other party (especially Sinn Fein) is far more disciplined in this regard.

In the 2020 GE Sinn Féin even went too far, misjudging the mood. Under-running cost them at least 5 seats (in particular not standing anyone in Cork NW).

Yes they’ve had similar results in NI council elections before. Their strategists seem to be content with their votes electing an ally rather than running too many and risking a cutup.

And since - about half the SDLP candidates elected in the 2023 locals outside of Belfast and Derry were only elected because SF undernominated.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The UUP having the most votes transferred (42k!) and the most votes transfer within ticket (nearly 14k!) is a great demonstration that they keep running far too many candidates and keep hurting from leakage. Every other party (especially Sinn Fein) is far more disciplined in this regard.

In the 2020 GE Sinn Féin even went too far, misjudging the mood. Under-running cost them at least 5 seats (in particular not standing anyone in Cork NW).

Yes they’ve had similar results in NI council elections before. Their strategists seem to be content with their votes electing an ally rather than running too many and risking a cutup.

And since - about half the SDLP candidates elected in the 2023 locals outside of Belfast and Derry were only elected because SF undernominated.

Yees there have been some particularly comical undernominations by Sinn Fein at the council level. At this point it does seem they really don't care and are genuinely okay with the SDLP hoovering up their surpluses.
And the SDLP of course used to be even worse at overnominating than the UUP! West Tyrone 2007 remains the most comical. Mfw u narrowly won one seat at the last election, and there's a popular SDLP defector incumbent, so you run three candidates (!) and in spite winning a full quota you leak so many votes you get nothing.

[YL]

Sinn Féin are not standing in Lagan Valley, North Down, Belfast East or Belfast South & Mid Down.

[Epaminondas]

Sinn Féin are not standing in Lagan Valley, North Down, Belfast East or Belfast South & Mid Down.

Wouldn't South Antrim have made more strategic sense than Lagan Valley?

If Alliance reciprocate and stand down in Upper Bann and East Derry, where they poll behind nationalists, the DUP is in real trouble.

[Oryxslayer]

Sinn Féin are not standing in Lagan Valley, North Down, Belfast East or Belfast South & Mid Down.

Wouldn't South Antrim have made more strategic sense than Lagan Valley?

If Alliance reciprocate and stand down in Upper Bann and East Derry, where they poll behind nationalists, the DUP is in real trouble.

The Alliance always runs everywhere,  and in this case, had candidates announced rather early in most instances. They even ran against Sylvia Hermon who at times got similar parties to stand aside.  

That's what many have tried to convey on this topic. Other camps and their voters use the Alliance tactfully in places they have zero hope. The Alliance is better than your rival after all. But the Alliance does not care what they do and behaves as they would with or without certain opponents.  Cause its their whole deal that they don't care about that.

[LabourJersey]

Just got back from a vacation in NI over three days (after a weekend in London seeing the Mets-Phillies MLB series). Some stray observations:

Belfast City Centre was devoid of any political signage, and indeed there was barely any real sectarian imagery in the areas devoted to tourism.

On the bus to Giants' Causeway (thru Coleraine and Bushmills) you could a very high number of Unionist signs - Paisley Jr of the DUP, whomever is the UUP candidate in that constituency, and quite a lot of the "NO SEA BORDER" Reform-TUV signs. I was vaguely aware that part of Antrim was Unionist but the intensity was a surprise.

[Flyersfan232]

How should anou effect things on the 4th?

[Silent Hunter]

Just got back from a vacation in NI over three days (after a weekend in London seeing the Mets-Phillies MLB series). Some stray observations:

Belfast City Centre was devoid of any political signage, and indeed there was barely any real sectarian imagery in the areas devoted to tourism.

On the bus to Giants' Causeway (thru Coleraine and Bushmills) you could a very high number of Unionist signs - Paisley Jr of the DUP, whomever is the UUP candidate in that constituency, and quite a lot of the "NO SEA BORDER" Reform-TUV signs. I was vaguely aware that part of Antrim was Unionist but the intensity was a surprise.

The most sectarian stuff you'll see in Belfast City Centre are exhibits in the Titanic Museum.

I was out there when the election was called and a couple of SDLP signs went up pretty quickly.

[Oryxslayer]

LucidTalk Westminster voting intention poll for the Belfast Telegraph (changes with previous poll):

SF 26 (-3)
DUP 20 (-1)
All 15 (-)
UUP 13 (+2)
SDLP 10 (+2)
TUV 8 (-)
Oth 4 (-)
Aontú 2 (-)
GP 1 (-)
SWP 1 (-)

https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1802449229094228010?t=qCw3PCu5ZwRaeXy...

Far from looking a repetition of past polarization,  it's starting to look NI next month could experience a (re)surge of support for the main alternatives to SF and the DUP. Which may weirdly make the Alliance one of the overall beneficiaries,  if each traditional camp is more spit than usual.

[EastAnglianLefty]

How should anou effect things on the 4th?

Aontú are likely to have absolutely no effect anywhere. They might save their deposit in Belfast West and that's about it.

Just got back from a vacation in NI over three days (after a weekend in London seeing the Mets-Phillies MLB series). Some stray observations:

Belfast City Centre was devoid of any political signage, and indeed there was barely any real sectarian imagery in the areas devoted to tourism.

On the bus to Giants' Causeway (thru Coleraine and Bushmills) you could a very high number of Unionist signs - Paisley Jr of the DUP, whomever is the UUP candidate in that constituency, and quite a lot of the "NO SEA BORDER" Reform-TUV signs. I was vaguely aware that part of Antrim was Unionist but the intensity was a surprise.

The most sectarian stuff you'll see in Belfast City Centre are exhibits in the Titanic Museum.

I was out there when the election was called and a couple of SDLP signs went up pretty quickly.

Though you can see plenty of sectarian stuff within half a mile of the city centre in almost any direction - Donegall Pass, Short Strand and the Falls, Crumling and Shankill Roads are all a fairly short walk away.