United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[TheTide]

Absolute car crash from Penny Mordaunt.

Farage asked her something to the effect of "immigration has risen by millions over the past few years, why should anyone trust you?".

Mordaunt - "Because of the record of this Prime Minister..."

Cue laughter.

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

The new Reform Campaign theme is about to become:

"The PM will either be Keir Starmer or Nigel Farage. Don't vote for the Tories, it is a wasted vote, vote Reform if you want to stop Starmer, don't let the Conservatives be a spoiler splitting the vote."

Sure enough, Farage just said this in the debate (to Conservative Penny mordaunt):

"We're ahead of you in the national polls now... a vote for you is a vote for Labour"

[Compuzled_One]

Absolute car crash from Penny Mordaunt.

Farage asked her something to the effect of "immigration has risen by millions over the past few years, why should anyone trust you?".

Mordaunt - "Because of the record of this Prime Minister..."

Cue laughter.

It's so over. This debate was the last chance to save the Conservatives from being Canada '93'd or 2011'd, and THIS sounds like the worst case scenario, especially with this poll.

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

https://x.com/RealAlbanianPat/status/1801333337383927933

It's hard to see which colo(u)rs are for Reform and which for Conservatives in those handful of non-labour/Lib-Dem rural seats.

[oldtimer]

Absolute car crash from Penny Mordaunt.

Farage asked her something to the effect of "immigration has risen by millions over the past few years, why should anyone trust you?".

Mordaunt - "Because of the record of this Prime Minister..."

Cue laughter.

It's so over. This debate was the last chance to save the Conservatives from being Canada '93'd or 2011'd, and THIS sounds like the worst case scenario, especially with this poll.

And It's too late to ditch Sunak, postal voting begins this Wednesday.

[beesley]

An update at the halfway mark

Sunak adds Crawley, Horsham, Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes. (His manifesto launch was in South Northants but I won't add that)

Starmer adds Hendon, Nuneaton, Redcar, Crewe and Nantwich, his manifesto launch was in Manchester. Part of me thinks I could've included Rayner's battle bus visits since she's doing more of the seat work, but it only reaches the same conclusion and the seats are in the same range.

Davey adds Runnymede and Weybridge, Torbay, Glastonbury and Somerton, Stratford on Avon, Tunbridge Wells.

Don't read too much into this as always, as the two seats were always targets, but both Starmer and Davey extended their ranges - Nuneaton and Stratford on Avon respectively are the seats furthest down the target list out of those they have visited.

[TheTide]

Penny Mordaunt - "The lesson of the past few years is that Labour will do this and that....."

[Flyersfan232]

Absolute car crash from Penny Mordaunt.

Farage asked her something to the effect of "immigration has risen by millions over the past few years, why should anyone trust you?".

Mordaunt - "Because of the record of this Prime Minister..."

Cue laughter.

It's so over. This debate was the last chance to save the Conservatives from being Canada '93'd or 2011'd, and THIS sounds like the worst case scenario, especially with this poll.

if the current canada polls hold true what would that be compare too?

[Compuzled_One]

Absolute car crash from Penny Mordaunt.

Farage asked her something to the effect of "immigration has risen by millions over the past few years, why should anyone trust you?".

Mordaunt - "Because of the record of this Prime Minister..."

Cue laughter.

It's so over. This debate was the last chance to save the Conservatives from being Canada '93'd or 2011'd, and THIS sounds like the worst case scenario, especially with this poll.

if the current canada polls hold true what would that be compare too?

I mean, they look bad, but unless that NDP is as good at getting seats as the Lib Dems, I assume they'll be like 1997 UK.

[Pericles]

Absolute car crash from Penny Mordaunt.

Farage asked her something to the effect of "immigration has risen by millions over the past few years, why should anyone trust you?".

Mordaunt - "Because of the record of this Prime Minister..."

Cue laughter.

It's so over. This debate was the last chance to save the Conservatives from being Canada '93'd or 2011'd, and THIS sounds like the worst case scenario, especially with this poll.

if the current canada polls hold true what would that be compare too?

It looks like their 1984 election-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1984_Canadian_federal_election

[TheTide]

Absolute car crash from Penny Mordaunt.

Farage asked her something to the effect of "immigration has risen by millions over the past few years, why should anyone trust you?".

Mordaunt - "Because of the record of this Prime Minister..."

Cue laughter.

It's so over. This debate was the last chance to save the Conservatives from being Canada '93'd or 2011'd, and THIS sounds like the worst case scenario, especially with this poll.

And It's too late to ditch Sunak, postal voting begins this Wednesday.

It began a couple of days ago, or at least they started being sent out.

[Flyersfan232]

An update at the halfway mark

Sunak adds Crawley, Horsham, Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes. (His manifesto launch was in South Northants but I won't add that)

Starmer adds Hendon, Nuneaton, Redcar, Crewe and Nantwich, his manifesto launch was in Manchester. Part of me thinks I could've included Rayner's battle bus visits since she's doing more of the seat work, but it only reaches the same conclusion and the seats are in the same range.

Davey adds Runnymede and Weybridge, Torbay, Glastonbury and Somerton, Stratford on Avon, Tunbridge Wells.

Don't read too much into this as always, as the two seats were always targets, but both Starmer and Davey extended their ranges - Nuneaton and Stratford on Avon respectively are the seats furthest down the target list out of those they have visited.

should include reform

[oldtimer]

This 7-leaders debate had a shift in style.

It was more dull than the previous one, with different targets.
Rayner and Mordaunt changed clothes, hair style and speaking style. Rayner in particular went with "Jen from the IT Crowd".

Rayner and Daisy Cooper where on the defensive and the rest, particularly Farage, tried to convince that they will be the best Opposition to Labour.

Everyone made post-election positioning, like Labour and LD's have already won and where the Government.

No major blows, everyone played it safe.

[MaxQue]

An update at the halfway mark

Sunak adds Crawley, Horsham, Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes. (His manifesto launch was in South Northants but I won't add that)

Starmer adds Hendon, Nuneaton, Redcar, Crewe and Nantwich, his manifesto launch was in Manchester. Part of me thinks I could've included Rayner's battle bus visits since she's doing more of the seat work, but it only reaches the same conclusion and the seats are in the same range.

Davey adds Runnymede and Weybridge, Torbay, Glastonbury and Somerton, Stratford on Avon, Tunbridge Wells.

Don't read too much into this as always, as the two seats were always targets, but both Starmer and Davey extended their ranges - Nuneaton and Stratford on Avon respectively are the seats furthest down the target list out of those they have visited.

should include reform

Farage seems to be campaigning full-time in Clacton.

[oldtimer]

It was just endless waffle.

Rigby went hard on Starmer and soft on Sunak, but the most memorable moment of each :

Starmer segment.
Rigby:" Has he answered the question?"
Audience member: "No"

Sunak segment.
Rigby:"What can you say to make us like you again?"
Sunak: "I eat sugar"

Voters would probably leave to get a Twix.

At what minutes of the debate were these moments? Need to watch them.

Here is Sunak's cringe moment :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yfAR1Sw1rOQ

Here is Starmer's cringe moment:

https://youtu.be/6oM4-0KMxS8?feature=shared&t=131

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

So if you plug the yougov poll (the one with Reform ahead of the Conservatives by 1) into the financial times model, it gives you the following seat count:

https://ig.ft.com/uk-general-election/2024/projection/

Labour: 440
Lib Dems: 97
SNP 38
Reform 26
Conservatives 26

The great majority of the Lib Dem seats are in the south/southwest - basically a huge swath of the currently Tory seats which are anywhere south-east of the line from Dover, through London, up to Birmingham.

The Reform seats and the Conservative seats are fairly random in the remainder of the Tory shire seats, though with Reform concentrated a bit more near the Brexit coast/east coast.

It's also worth noting that a huge amount of those remaining Tory/Reform seats are 3 way races between Conservatives, Reform, and Labour, where all 3 parties have support in the mid-to-high 20s. So it wouldn't take much more of a swing to Labour to wipe out many of those remaining seats as well, thanks to the Tory-Reform vote splitting.

Some are also basically 4-way races between Labour-Lib-Dem-Reform-Conservatives.



If you give Reform 1 extra point of support and subtract 1 from the Conservatives (i.e. Reform 20% to Conservatives 17%), then the projected seat count becomes:

Labour: 437
Lib Dems: 97
SNP 38
Reform 43
Conservatives 12


Then if you go one step further and swing a single extra percentage point, then the Conservatives collapse to only 2 seats... The sole survivors are South Shropshire and Rutland and Stamford.

Obviously take it with a grain of salt, because it is plugging numbers from one poll into a model from a separate source. But it is interesting nonetheless, and it is an indication that if Reform can keep picking up support as the Tories fall, we are not far from the point where Reform could start overtaking the Conservatives not just in popular vote, but potentially also in seats.

The polling average overall is certainly not there yet, but if other polls start catching up to this Yougov poll, then we are not far removed from an extinction level event.


And IMO, there is a good chance of this happening simply as a self-fulfilling prophecy, because the media coverage will start to be about the possibility of Reform taking over the Conservatives, and there will be Tory voters who see that news coverage and switch to Reform partly as a result of no longer seeing it as a wasted vote.

Then in the next few weeks more polls could start showing further Reform gains, with a serious possibility of that prompting more Tory voters to jump over to Reform, creating a positive feedback loop of momentum.


This is such a crazy election.



--- edit --- my numbers are slightly influenced by the fact that I accidentally didn't hold SNP and Plaid Cmyru support constant, so those had some minor swing. If you hold their support constant, then you come out with slightly different projections, but with the same general patterns

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/RealAlbanianPat/status/1801333337383927933

That's a big jump Reform has over ECs prediction.

If the Conservatives took more than 60% of the vote in 2019 it would create 3-ways between Labour-Reform-Conservative in most (in Southern LD targets it's a different story).

Or if you look at it from a pure Leave-Remain vote pool, in places that Leave got more than 2/3rds of the vote you get 3-ways between Labour-Reform-Conservative.

The higher the Reform share among Leavers and 2019 Conservatives, the more 3-ways they win.

Once Reform passes the Conservatives they get lots of safe Conservative Leave seats due to the nature of them exclusively taking from Conservative Leavers.

[rc18]

Absolute car crash from Penny Mordaunt.

Farage asked her something to the effect of "immigration has risen by millions over the past few years, why should anyone trust you?".

Mordaunt - "Because of the record of this Prime Minister..."

Cue laughter.

It's so over. This debate was the last chance to save the Conservatives from being Canada '93'd or 2011'd, and THIS sounds like the worst case scenario, especially with this poll.

And It's too late to ditch Sunak, postal voting begins this Wednesday.

It began a couple of days ago, or at least they started being sent out.

Any evidence of this?

The deadline to apply for, or amend, a postal vote is Wednesday 19th. They obviously can't be sent out before people have had a chance to amend their details...

[Compuzled_One]

https://twitter.com/RealAlbanianPat/status/1801333337383927933

That's a big jump Reform has over ECs prediction.

If the Conservatives took more than 60% of the vote in 2019 it would create 3-ways between Labour-Reform-Conservative in most (in Southern LD targets it's a different story).

Or if you look at it from a pure Leave-Remain vote pool, in places that Leave got more than 2/3rds of the vote you get 3-ways between Labour-Reform-Conservative.

The higher the Reform share among Leavers and 2019 Conservatives, the more 3-ways they win.

Once Reform passes the Conservatives they get lots of safe Conservative Leave seats due to the nature of them exclusively taking from Conservative Leavers.

Gotcha, thanks.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I would once again caution heavily against assuming that a poll must be more 'important' than others because it has been heavily promoted. That isn't how things work here either.

[oldtimer]

I would once again caution heavily against assuming that a poll must be more 'important' than others because it has been heavily promoted. That isn't how things work here either.

That poll is not surprising.

However the last time the Conservatives where bellow 2nd place in any poll duting an election campaign was 14 years ago, it's rare so enjoy it.

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

I would once again caution heavily against assuming that a poll must be more 'important' than others because it has been heavily promoted. That isn't how things work here either.

For sure, the yougov poll with Reform in 2nd (assuming that is the one you are talking about) is not more important in the sense of being more likely to be accurate. Indeed, it probably is overstating Reform support at least somewhat.

I would even go further to say I think there is an underrated possibility that a lot of the Reform support could be phantom support resulting from online poll methodology being more likely to pick up voters who are more engaged in general.

However, it could be more important in the sense of being more likely to drive the narrative. Which could have partially self-fulfilling effects.

In a multi-candidate/party race, especially with FPTP, polls have a lot more potential to actually influence the results by changing tactical voting decisions than in other situations with other electoral systems.

[RBH]

Media noticing that Niko Omilana is running in 11 seats https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm55x95xj54o

BBC hedging by saying "at least 11" as if they can't just go to a website (like DemocracyClub) and do a text search for how many times his name is listed as a candidate or just in case Niko is also running under other names.

You'd think the natural extension of this plan... if the legal consequences aren't a hindrance... is to just form a party for YouTube celebrities and their followers like it's a party seeking a seat in the Australian Senate.

Unfortunately Citizens for Undead Rights and Equality didn't run after 2010 so most of the joke parties are only unintentional

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Pure curiosity: are there any 'star' (non politician) candidates running who people not in the U.K would be familiar with or a good chance they'd be familiar with (some BBC foreign correspondents have run previously.) Like any musicians, actors, football players, authors/famous academics, Richard Branson, J.K Rowling...

[RBH]

Pure curiosity: are there any 'star' (non politician) candidates running who people not in the U.K would be familiar with or a good chance they'd be familiar with (some BBC foreign correspondents have run previously.) Like any musicians, actors, football players, authors/famous academics, Richard Branson, J.K Rowling...

well, Yvonne Ridley's wikipedia page says she was voted "most recognisable woman in the Islamic world" in 2008 but it's possible she lost that title sometime in the last 16 years