German Elections & Politics

[Tender Branson]

New ZDF poll has the CDU with an 8-point lead now:



Germans also want Macron as next French President, although AfD-voters slightly prefer Le Pen:

[Tender Branson]

2 state elections are coming up in the next 2 weeks and they are going to yield some strong results for the FDP:

NRW/Forsa



Schleswig-Holstein/INSA

[Tender Branson]

ARD once again out with a NRW poll showing Kraft in trouble for the May 14 state election:



...

Also a new Bayern poll for the federal elections:



Chancellor vote:



Approval Ratings of ...

* state government
* Governor Seehofer (CSU)
* federal government
* Chancellor Merkel (CDU)

[Tender Branson]

Probably the last poll (ZDF) for the state elections in S-H on Sunday:

[Tender Branson]

Wow, if both ARD and ZDF show the Kraft/Schulz train derailing - then it must be real.

If the CDU wins both states, there's virtually no way the SPD can challenge Merkel in September.

[Tender Branson]

I'm also interested in the NRW voter transfers between 2012 and 2017.

I've recently seen a TV-report about NRW and the structural changes in the Ruhrgebiet, away from coal-mining and steel industry. A lot of former SPD-voters are now working low-paid 40-hour jobs, or have multiple low-paid jobs and expecting low penions at or below the poverty level. Many of them, especially in the bigger cities, will opt for the Left and the AfD this time.

[Tender Branson]

Schleswig-Holstein's state election is tomorrow.

Time for my prediction:

32.8% CDU (+2.0%)
27.6% SPD (-2.8%)
11.6% FDP (+3.4%)
11.3% Greens (-1.9%)
  6.0% AfD (+6.0%)
  4.8% Left (+2.5%)
  4.3% SSW (-0.3%)
  1.6% Others (-8.9%)

Turnout: 71.4% (+11.2%)

Gov. Albig (SPD) doesn't have the popularity that is necessary to keep the SPD competetive with the CDU, or to even match their 2012 results. I expect a lot of former SPD-voters to move to the FDP, Left and AfD.

[Tender Branson]

A recent picture capturing the mood in the "Schulz-train":

[Tender Branson]

Polls are now open for the Schleswig-Holstein state election.

They close at 6pm local time.

[Tender Branson]

ZDF:



CDU+7. Polls before the election said tie.

Almost like my prediction.

[Tender Branson]

First projections based on already counted precincts, not exit polls anymore:

ARD



ZDF

[Tender Branson]

Final result of the Schleswig-Holstein state election:

https://www.landtagswahl-sh.de/wahlen.php?site=left/gebiete&wahl=363#index.php?site=right/ergebnis&wahl=363&anzeige=0&gebiet=1&idx=0&typ=1&stimme=2&flip=1&mode=grafik&hoch=0

The CDU-share went down to 32% overnight, from 33.5% in the projections - making my prediction slightly less accurate. But I'm still happy with it, because I correctly predicted the collapse of the SPD.

[Tender Branson]

The big NRW state election (18 million people) is coming up on Sunday and Hannelore Kraft (SPD) may be voted out of office:



Compared with their last poll:

-4% for the SPD
+3% for the CDU
+3% for the FDP
-3% for the AfD
+1% for Others

CDU-FDP-Greens would be possible.

[Tender Branson]

Latest NRW-poll for Sunday (YouGov for Sat1):

[Tender Branson]

Final NRW poll (ZDF/FGW):



Vote for PM:

[Tender Branson]

CDU/CSU is opening 10- and 12-point leads for the September election, according to 2 new polls today (Infratest Dimap and YouGov).

The Schulz-train is fully derailing right now.

[Tender Branson]

The important NRW state election (= 18 million people) is tomorrow.

Time for my prediction:

31.6% CDU (+5.3%)
29.6% SPD (-9.5%)
14.0% FDP (+5.4%)
  7.6% AfD (+7.6%)
  6.8% Greens (-4.5%)
  5.9% Left (+3.4%)
  1.5% Pirates (-6.3)
  3.0% Others (-1.4%)

Turnout: 64.1% (+4.5%)

MoE = +/- 1% for parties above 10%, +/- 0.5% for parties below 10%

[Tender Branson]

Turnout seems to be up so far according to reports from Dortmund, Essen and elsewhere, but it was extremely low back in 2012.

65% seems likely for today.

[Tender Branson]

Polls close in 25 minutes.

[Tender Branson]

Looks good for CDU and FDP. :-( 10 minutes to go.

Yeah ... wouldn't surprise me if the Kraft/Schulz train heads off the cliff in 5 minutes.

NRW has been referred to as the Greece of Germany ...

[Tender Branson]

nrw is a structural problematic federal state, coal country and hard to reform.

Yepp, it also has a huge debt problem when we compare it with fiscally well-off and well-managed states such as BW or BY and massive school problems. It also has the highest child poverty rate of all states. Maybe the German posters know more.

[Tender Branson]

Schulz and SPD right now:

^^^

[Tender Branson]

Why did FDP perform so well?

Barney Lindner, federal FDP-chief, is the NRW-leader.

Also: Kraft has stepped down.

[Tender Branson]

Hannelore Kraft (SPD) steps down from all offices ... with an approval rating of 64-30 according to the ZDF exit poll.

[Tender Branson]

Following the NRW-election, Germany shifts to the Right.

New ARD/infratest dimap poll: