French National Assembly Elections, 06/30-07/07

[Helsinkian]

Thought this was pretty interesting (from Wikipedia, which cites Ipsos France, "Sociology of the electorate") -- the New Popular Front actually performs best with the upper class, La Macronie with the upper middle class, and the National Rally with everyone below that:

Social background

Disadvantaged
RN 54
NFP 29
ENS 6
LR 5

Working class
RN 38
NFP 35
ENS 12
LR 7

Lower middle class
RN 36
NFP 26
ENS 20
LR 10

Upper middle class
ENS 28
NFP 27
RN 25
LR 14

Upper class
NFP 28
ENS 27
RN 21
LR 18

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_French_legislative_election#First_round_2

[kaoras]

Thought this was pretty interesting (from Wikipedia, which cites Ipsos France, "Sociology of the electorate") -- the New Popular Front actually performs best with the upper class, La Macronie with the upper middle class, and the National Rally with everyone below that:

Social background

Disadvantaged
RN 54
NFP 29
ENS 6
LR 5

Working class
RN 38
NFP 35
ENS 12
LR 7

Lower middle class
RN 36
NFP 26
ENS 20
LR 10

Upper middle class
ENS 28
NFP 27
RN 25
LR 14

Upper class
NFP 28
ENS 27
RN 21
LR 18

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_French_legislative_election#First_round_2

Yet, per the same poll, the NFP does better among people who actually earn less (the things you posted are self-described categories).

Also, 28% is lower than 35%...

[Oryxslayer]

Polling vote transfer getting better for anti RN. Basically tied for LFI RN and slight rest of NFP lead. 2022 Le pen Macron margins for RN ENS.
ENS voters probably feel somewhat ok because NFP can’t really get a majority .

Can I get a link?

[lfromnj]

Polling vote transfer getting better for anti RN. Basically tied for LFI RN and slight rest of NFP lead. 2022 Le pen Macron margins for RN ENS.
ENS voters probably feel somewhat ok because NFP can’t really get a majority .

Can I get a link?

Sorry mixed up ENS and LR

https://x.com/nassreddin2002/status/1808182136203022637?s=46

[Sestak]

Polling vote transfer getting better for anti RN. Basically tied for LFI RN and slight rest of NFP lead. 2022 Le pen Macron margins for RN ENS.
ENS voters probably feel somewhat ok because NFP can’t really get a majority .

Can I get a link?

Sorry mixed up ENS and LR

https://x.com/nassreddin2002/status/1808182136203022637?s=46

Summary for those not logged into Twitter (this is from IFOP)

PS/EELV 53 | FN 47
LFI 50 | FN 50
Ensemble 53 | FN 47

PS/EELV 48 | Ensemble 52
LFI 42 | Ensemble 58

[Conservatopia]

I have done a very, very rough manipulation of the official results to determine the following extremely rough results for the second round based off the first round results, sorting all the parties into two very heterogenous blocs. Then I found which "bloc" would win each constituency. Essentially this would be the rough results if there were 100% transfers between LR and RN and 100% transfers between Ensemble and NFP. Obviously this won't happen but it is indicative nonetheless.

The left and centre (Ensemble and everything to its left) which is ahead in 369 seats
The broad right (everything to right of Ensemble) which is ahead in 200 seats
Regionalists and others are ahead in 8 seats (all outside metro France)

This feels like a median result based on the maths alone and indicates that RN+LR is unlikely to come very close to a majority unless there are large transfers from Ensemble.

It shows the mountain RN has to climb with all the dropouts. RN coming behind NFP won't be a surprise.

[lfromnj]

https://x.com/taniel/status/1808195605627314643?s=46
RN candidate drops out so NFP rejoins . After that RN rejoins at last second so NFP can’t drop.

[Sir John Johns]

Can't understand Finistère 3, where both left-wing candidates (together 40%) withdrew against RN (31%) and LR (28%)

Yeah, that was just the left giving up a free seat. Deeply stupid decision.

You may thank the LFI candidate (and official candidate of the NFP) who placed fourth and who, in the statement announcing his withdrawal, urges the PS dissident candidate (who placed third) to also withdrawing in order to beat the RN candidate. The PS dissident candidate has blamed his rival for the absence of left-wing candidate in the runoff, pointing to his lack of support in a hypothetical triangulaire.

This is the second time (after 2021) that the eighth constituency of Finistère, which would have normally been recaptured by the left, is lost due to the insistence of the NUPES/NFP to run here unelectable LFI candidates. This is a historically center-left constituency (in the Euro, the PS list got 19.5% against only 6.5% for LFI) held by a Modem centrist incumbent who sponsored a bill against school bullying and voted against Macron’s immigration bill. In those circumstances, running a little-known leftist firebrand sporting the colors of a party particularly toxic among rural voters in this constituency is just plain electoral suicide. Some would ask the question whether LFI really wants a victory of the left.

Something else but the RN candidate there (already running in 2022) shared some *interesting* opinions on his Twitter account:

https://x.com/RN29Concarneau/status/1490601889108566018

Would the Zemmour campaign team be the last attempt of Rothschild and co to keep its hands over our homeland? To carefully read… how could one be an activist for the national cause and believe a single instant in such imbroglio? Marine#2022

The article he mentions is titled ‘These money relations between Zemmour and the globalist caste which embarrass us’ and published on a conspiracy theorist blog which also published articles pretending people who didn’t get their Covid vaccine would be exterminated by the government and that Brigitte Macron is actually a man.

https://x.com/RN29Concarneau/status/1557792750552088578

(answering a Zemmour supporter)

How? After having been a member of the FN since 1982 and twenty campaigns under my name, I would follow a Zemmour who never shared our ideas until Rothschild ordered him to do so… I would rather die. Go to hell.

https://x.com/RN29Concarneau/status/1560666741906124800

(in reaction after the understandable decision of Carrefour to stop selling Rivarol in its supermarkets after an umpteenth conviction of that weekly for denial of crimes against humanity)

Carrefour listens to my needs? Well, I will be no longer customer as Carrefour boycotts Rivarol. #freedom

Rivarol is the most ignominious French antisemitic weekly which has been routinely fined for incitement to libel, racial hate, offense and genocide denial. Its editor is totally obsessed by Jews and decided to invite for the 65th anniversary of his garbage newspaper Robert Faurisson (aka the pope of Holocaust denial in France) so he could explain there never had been an extermination process in Auschwitz.

And he is far from being an isolated case among the RN candidates.

[Sir John Johns]

Also two more RN dropouts. One in Calvados 1st (Caen) where they were far away in third, and  the other in Haute Corse 2nd which probably just corsica politicians doing corsica stuff.

In Caen, the RN candidate was forced by the party to withdraw after an old photo showing her wearing a Nazi hat was discovered.

https://twitter.com/fbleubnormandie/status/1808042758944276727

Classical RN scandal, few years ago they had to kick out a parliamentary assistant after a disgruntled FN euro parliamentarian published a photo of him doing antisemitic cosplay.

[buritobr]

The biggest cause of the RN is the implementation of anti-immigration legislation.

Paris has the lowest vote share for RN. The capital has the highest share of immigrants in the population. But the % of the RN in the capital is so low, that we can conclude that the RN performs worse in the native white population in Paris than in the native white population in rural areas. This native white population in Paris is supposed to be the most affected people by the large number of immigrants, something RN is willing to fight against.

So, we can think that the immigration is not really a negative thing for France, it is only something that the far-right wants to portray as a negative thing.

[lfromnj]

The Paris elite get cheap labor from immigration while the outlying country loses welfare to immigrants who are by large deficit causers.

[lfromnj]

Anyway my personal opinion is hoping for a grand coalition .Should keep the left split up for the next election as LFI will never trust the remainder of the left .

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anyway my personal opinion is hoping for a grand coalition .Should keep the left split up for the next election as LFI will never trust the remainder of the left .

I think the one thing we should really have learned with French politics at this point is that making definitive predictions about the way relationships between parties will evolve is a rather dicey proposition.

[adma]

The biggest cause of the RN is the implementation of anti-immigration legislation.

Paris has the lowest vote share for RN. The capital has the highest share of immigrants in the population. But the % of the RN in the capital is so low, that we can conclude that the RN performs worse in the native white population in Paris than in the native white population in rural areas. This native white population in Paris is supposed to be the most affected people by the large number of immigrants, something RN is willing to fight against.

So, we can think that the immigration is not really a negative thing for France, it is only something that the far-right wants to portray as a negative thing.

It's not about immigration, it's about "cosmopolitanism".  A big, pregnant weasel word, you know.

[Oryxslayer]

https://x.com/taniel/status/1808195605627314643?s=46
RN candidate drops out so NFP rejoins . After that RN rejoins at last second so NFP can’t drop.

RN dropped out in Val-d’Oise 4th, seemingly with the explicit purpose of stopping LFI. So the number of Far Right désistements remained at 3.

[Antonio the Sixth]

All right, we don't yet have the official candidates list so everything is still provisional, but Le Monde has been tracking dropouts pretty extensively and I couldn't resist running some numbers before. Here's where things seem to stand as far as we know.


Triangular -> Duel: 214
Left-Left-Center -> Left-Center: 1
Left-Center-Center -> Left-Center: 1
Left-Center-XR -> Left-Center: 1

Left-Right-XR -> Left-Right: 1

Left-Left-XR -> Left-XR: 3
Left-Center-XR -> Left-XR: 79
Left-Right-XR -> Left-XR: 2

Left-Center-Right -> Center-Right: 1

Left-Center-XR -> Center-XR: 98

Left-Right-XR -> Right-XR: 26

Right-XR-Div -> Right-Div: 1


Quadrangular -> Triangular: 3
Left-Center-Right-XR -> Left-Right-XR: 3


Quadrangular -> Duel: 1
Left-Left-Center-XR -> Center-XR: 1


Bloc dropouts: 213
Left: 126
Center: 82
Right: 2
Far-right: 3

Bloc consolidations: 5
Left: 4
Center: 1


Consolidations against the Far-Right: 212
Left dropping out: 125 (99 in the Center's favor, 26 in the Right's favor)
Center dropping out: 82 (79 in the Left's favor, 3 ambiguous)
Right dropping out: 2 (all in the Left's favor)
Intra-left consolidations: 3

Other dropouts: 6
Far-Right dropping out: 3 (2 against the Left, 1 against others)
Left dropping out: 1 (against the Right)
Intra-left consolidation: 1
Intra-center consolidation: 1

[GoTfan]

Are the NFP and Ensemble actually working together to stop RN or is this just something being decided at a local level?

[Oryxslayer]

Are the NFP and Ensemble actually working together to stop RN or is this just something being decided at a local level?

On election night the national parties leaders called for dropouts. Cooperation and strategic Coordination...no. Directives and tactical behavior...yes. And of course it is not absolute. While there have been such exits in most seats RN topped the polls in, safer areas (usually where ENS or NRP party candidates topped the ticket) there has seemingly been less pressure and less action. And of course while there is pressure sometimes people defy orders, a handful of ENS candidates have stuck in if the alternatives are LFI and RN specifically, and there is other peculiar situations. And of course LR hasn't pushed their 3rd place finishers at all it seems.

[mubar]

Looks like RN and allies will be in first place in a bit over 300 seats.  I fail to see how they can win any seats in the second round where they are in second.  I also figure they will lose at least 15% of the seats they are in the first place given anti-RN consolidation.

So my wild guess is they will likely end up with around 250-260 seats.  That is most likely enough to make non-Ciotti LR and allies hold the balance of power.  It will be fun to watch the 3 or 4-way game of chicken between  LFI, non-LFI NFP, ENS, and non-Ciotti LR to try to form a government in that scenerio.

Assuming ENS withdraws in triangulars, RN will be the overwhelming beneficiary of LR transfers against NFP. As an example, Drome's 1st went NFP: 32.4% - RN: 31.1%, but with a 17.9% score for LR and a score 16.7% for ENS. RN is very likely the favorite there. ENS voters will break for NFP in the second round, but certainly not unanimously. National polling (~55-45 RN-NFP) suggest a 50-30 split of ENS voters, fairly close to what was observed in 2022. A National Rally majority is less likely than it was this morning, but certainly not impossible.  

Considering this example, I don't know how the situation is on the ground in Valence and for sure the local politics matter too, but the fact that the NFP party in this case is PS will be important. The candidate Christophle seems like a moderate socialist, which means that voting for him when the opposite is RN should be easy for most ENS, and a significant portion of LR voters who didn't already choose far-right in the first round will prefer PS to RN, something they wouldn't be likely to do for LFI. So it would appear that NFP is favored here.

[Agafin]

I've just listened to the song "No pasaran", an anti-RN song by 20 french rappers with the aim of getting people to vote against the RN,  and... lmao. Some of the most sexist, conspirationist, anti-semitic, violent piece of garbage ever put into music. I'm really in awe. Calling Le Pen a "horny bitch"? Marion a "whore"? Calling to kill Bardella and Le Pen or any RN supporters? Talking about Illuminatis? Fremasons controlling the world? 9/11 conspiracies? Not to mention the line "Palestine from the Seine to the Jordan" which even in its most charitable interpretation would scare the crap out of french jews.

It's no wonder the RN is so strong if this is what people associate the left (mostly LFI) with.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I like how Olivier Falorni, years after defeating Royal, is still running and winning as Misc Left.

[Battista Minola 1616]

I've just listened to the song "No pasaran", an anti-RN song by 20 french rappers with the aim of getting people to vote against the RN,  and... lmao. Some of the most sexist, conspirationist, anti-semitic, violent piece of garbage ever put into music. I'm really in awe. Calling Le Pen a "horny bitch"? Marion a "whore"? Calling to kill Bardella and Le Pen or any RN supporters? Talking about Illuminatis? Fremasons controlling the world? 9/11 conspiracies? Not to mention the line "Palestine from the Seine to the Jordan" which even in its most charitable interpretation would scare the crap out of french jews.

It's no wonder the RN is so strong if this is what people associate the left (mostly LFI) with.

We already had "Je partira pas", I guess each side now has its own terrible campaign music.

[jaichind]

Summary for those not logged into Twitter (this is from IFOP)

PS/EELV 53 | FN 47
LFI 50 | FN 50
Ensemble 53 | FN 47

PS/EELV 48 | Ensemble 52
LFI 42 | Ensemble 58

The ENS/RN numbers look much better than I would expect.  It seems part of the anti-system LFI vote will go to RN just like in 2022.

[Helsinkian]

Yet, per the same poll, the NFP does better among people who actually earn less (the things you posted are self-described categories).

That's even stranger then: low-income NFP voters self-identify as upper class?

[Estrella]

It's no wonder the RN is so strong if this is what people associate the left (mostly LFI) with.

Oh, the French left has a long and proud tradition (going back to the Jacobins, really) of ignoring economic issues in favour of obsessive conspiratorial bullshxt you'd expect from the far right in any normal country. Shades of PCF organizing lynch mobs against immigrants in Vitry or campaigning on the extremely important issue of banning Coca-Cola.