French National Assembly Elections, 06/30-07/07

[Red Velvet]

Northeast in France appears to be for the Right what the Northeast in Brazil is for the Left.

Why is it so awful there? Richer areas or something like that? I’m talking about the French regions near Belgium / Luxembourg / Germany borders where RN seems to be winning their seats already on the 1st round, getting >50% of the vote.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Mélenchon says that NFP candidates will withdraw if they poll third but qualify to the 2nd round, in order to defeat the RN.

Are there NFP voters so dissatisfied with things under Macron and his "neoliberalisme" they could vote RN instead ?

[Oryxslayer]

Mélenchon says that NFP candidates will withdraw if they poll third but qualify to the 2nd round, in order to defeat the RN.

Are there NFP voters so dissatisfied with things under Macron they could vote RN instead ?

Some areas yes, some no. And to varying degrees. That's how it was in 2022. And of course there is always the stay home option, but I think we can say definitively after today that the couch is not going to be the favored option.

Northeast in France appears to be for the Right what the Northeast in Brazil is for the Left.

Why is it so awful there? Richer areas or something like that? I’m talking about the French regions near Belgium / Luxembourg / Germany borders where RN seems to be winning their seats already on the 1st round, getting >50% of the vote.

TL:DR - it's not Northeast but North. North is the postindustrial + rural area. Except in the cities which are the polar opposites - places like Strasburg, Luxemburg suburbs, Nancy, etc have been good for both the Left and Macron for different reasons.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Why is it so awful there? Richer areas or something like that?

No, quite the opposite. It's a historically industrial working-class area, it used to be very left-wing. However as in lots of Europe, the populist xenophobic far-right has made huge headways with blue-collar workers and Panzargirl's party are now the dominant force there.

[lfromnj]

Northeast in France appears to be for the Right what the Northeast in Brazil is for the Left.

Why is it so awful there? Richer areas or something like that? I’m talking about the French regions near Belgium / Luxembourg / Germany borders where RN seems to be winning their seats already on the 1st round, getting >50% of the vote.

NE is industrial areas that are quite poor.
SE is basically French Florida

https://www.politico.eu/article/french-riviera-cannes-europe-florida-mainstream-far-right-le-pen-national-rally-normalization-eu-election/

[PeteB]

These results are more difficult to decipher than Rubik's puzzle.  For those in the know, are there any areas where RN underperformed, based on results that have come in so far?  Also, what are the chances for Macron and the left to strike some kind of agreement, before the second round?

[Epaminondas]

Happens quite often in Bretagne only, I think.

Bretagne is Brittany in English, and has its own name in almost every European language due to a long history separate from France. Bretanha in Portuguese, and so on.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Do we have any polls on second-choices of voters? And do we have any examples of the anti-RN vote coalescing to defeat RN in runoff elections?

Could we see some ENS voters decide to vote RN to stop the crazy leftists, and vice versa, some NFP voters decided that RN is better than ENS?

I know in Germany, non-far right voters are extremely good at coalescing to block the AfD. Do we expect to see anything similar in France?

[Battista Minola 1616]

Northeast in France appears to be for the Right what the Northeast in Brazil is for the Left.

Why is it so awful there? Richer areas or something like that? I’m talking about the French regions near Belgium / Luxembourg / Germany borders where RN seems to be winning their seats already on the 1st round, getting >50% of the vote.

I think there may be some confusion here, confusion which hasn't been cleared at all by the answers so far. If you mean the northernmost departments (like Nord, Pas-de-Calais and some of the adjacent ones) that is largely an industrial and mining area, definitely not richer than average, historically left-wing. If you mean the areas properly in the northeast (Lorraine and Alsace), that's quite a bit more complicated; I am not an expert but I know it includes places similar to the above and ones that are much less so. Alsace in particular is wealthy and has always been fairly right-wing. Nowadays the RN can poll huge shares of the vote both in parts of the North that used to be left-wing strongholds and ones that were the opposite.

[Red Velvet]

Happens quite often in Bretagne only, I think.

Bretagne is Brittany in English, and has its own name in almost every European language due to a long history separate from France. Bretanha in Portuguese, and so on.

So? What’s exactly your point? hahahaha

If it has different names, then Bretagne (French) is also correct, just like Brittany; Bretanha or Breizh. Not sure you would be bothered about which name people use, unless you’re a British nationalist or something who believes the region should be theirs or something like that, wanting others to use name in English.

Ireland is also Celtic and Independent country. Galicia has strong Celtic heritage that is separate from Spain and in the end is still part of Spain anyways (Spain actually is nothing but a mix of very different autonomous groups too), just like Bretagne is part of France regardless of their separate individual history.

[Red Velvet]

Northeast in France appears to be for the Right what the Northeast in Brazil is for the Left.

Why is it so awful there? Richer areas or something like that? I’m talking about the French regions near Belgium / Luxembourg / Germany borders where RN seems to be winning their seats already on the 1st round, getting >50% of the vote.

I think there may be some confusion here, confusion which hasn't been cleared at all by the answers so far. If you mean the northernmost departments (like Nord, Pas-de-Calais and some of the adjacent ones) that is largely an industrial and mining area, definitely not richer than average, historically left-wing. If you mean the areas properly in the northeast (Lorraine and Alsace), that's quite a bit more complicated; I am not an expert but I know it includes places similar to the above and ones that are much less so. Alsace in particular is wealthy and has always been fairly right-wing. Nowadays the RN can poll huge shares of the vote both in parts of the North that used to be left-wing strongholds and ones that were the opposite.

I was talking about a combo of both actually. Thanks for clearing the differences!

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

We have a quadrangular!!!!!
Vendée-4
Besse (DVD) 39. 31%
Proux (RN) 22.88%
Nagnonhou (ENS) 18.46%
Godard (NFP) 18.42%

https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives2024/ensemble_geographique/52/85/8504/index.html

Finistère-8
Perez (RN) 30.80%
Balanant (ENS) 27.76%
Miossec (DVG) 22.17%
Le Bon (NFP) 18.12%

https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives2024/ensemble_geographique/53/29/2908/index.html

Another one in Saône-et-Loire, 5th

[Storr]

"Gabriel Attal's withdrawal instruction also applies to LFI candidates "compatible with republican values"

Following Gabriel Attal's statement calling on Ensemble candidates to withdraw in three-way races where they would be in third position, in order to avoid a victory for the National Rally (RN) candidate, the campaign team clarified that this instruction also applies when it comes to withdrawing in favour of a La France Insoumise candidate.

However, the presidential party will look at the profile of the candidate within the "insoumis" family. "The LFI are clearly enemies of the values ​​of the Republic ," says a campaign executive from the presidential camp. It will therefore be a question of looking at whether the "insoumis" candidate is "compatible with republican values ​​on parliamentarianism, universalism, anti-Semitism ," they specify at the Elysée.

For example, the Renaissance candidate Albane Branlant is withdrawing in favor of François Ruffin in the Somme. On the other hand, this instruction will not apply to a candidate with the profile of that of Raphaël Arnault, a “rebellious” candidate listed as S, in Avignon."

https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/live/2024/06/30/en-direct-resultats-legislatives-2024-la-gauche-appelle-ses-candidats-arrives-troisiemes-a-se-desister-pour-faire-battre-le-rn-le-camp-presidentiel-reste-flou_6245488_823448.html?#id-1645210

[Logical]

We have a quadrangular!!!!!
Vendée-4
Besse (DVD) 39. 31%
Proux (RN) 22.88%
Nagnonhou (ENS) 18.46%
Godard (NFP) 18.42%

https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives2024/ensemble_geographique/52/85/8504/index.html

Finistère-8
Perez (RN) 30.80%
Balanant (ENS) 27.76%
Miossec (DVG) 22.17%
Le Bon (NFP) 18.12%

https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives2024/ensemble_geographique/53/29/2908/index.html

Another one in Saône-et-Loire, 5th

Saône-et-Loire-5
Sanvert (RN) 35.12%
Kouriche (LFI-NFP) 23.28%
Marguerite (ENS) 20.75%
Platret (DVD) 19.06%

The NFP candidate here is from LFI. Whether the ENS and Right wing candidate will withdraw is the question.

https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives2024/ensemble_geographique/27/71/7105/index.html

Another one in Rhone
Rhone-8
Gery (RN) 33.46%
Reymbaut (PS-NFP) 22.75%
Despras (ENS) 21.18%
Serre (LR) 20.66%

https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives2024/ensemble_geographique/84/69/6908/index.html

[PeteB]

So, based on 53% of the vote counted so far, the elected candidates include 20 for RN, 3 for the left and 1 for Macron's alliance.

[Epaminondas]

If it has different names, then Bretagne (French) is also correct, just like Brittany; Bretanha or Breizh. Not sure you would be bothered about which name people use, unless you’re a British nationalist or something who believes the region should be theirs or something like that, wanting others to use name in English.

Not if you're trying to write in correct English. Just charitably trying to help you avoid mistakes.

I have a grandparent who spoke Breton, and am as much of a British nationalist as you are a Portuguese nationalist.

[windjammer]

Would be hilarious if Flanby ends up being appointed prime minister!

[Epaminondas]

It seems any Ensemble-NFP mutual withdrawal agreement would disproportionately benefit Macron's party.

There are already dozens of seats where NFP is within a few points of second place, while Ensemble comes third mostly by a good length.

[Sorenroy]

While the RN/LR alliance has been eliminated from a handful of seats due to an NFP candidate obtaining enough of the vote to preclude a runoff, it appears we have the first runoff in metropolitan France where the RN/LR alliance will not be on the ballot: Indre-et-Loire 01. The National Rally's Lisa Garbay came in third with 19% of the vote, but failed to meet the 12.5% registered voters threshold by 0.19%.

https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives2024/ensemble_geographique/24/37/3701/index.html

[Oryxslayer]

It seems any Ensemble-NFP mutual withdrawal agreement would disproportionately benefit Macron's party.

There are already dozens of seats where NFP is within a few points of second place, while Ensemble comes third mostly by a good length.

Congrats, you figured out why Melenchon was the one of the first who started a trend that everyone had to reciprocate to maintain dignity. (though there is enough pressure that it would have happened anyway) A lot of the new seats National Front could win were given to his opponents within the alliance.

[Mike88]

82% counted:

35.8% RN+allies, 36 elected
27.0% NFP+allies, 4
21.9% Ensemble+allies, 2
10.7% Republicains+allies, 2

[Epaminondas]

The deeper I look, the more dire the situation looks for the Nouveau Front Populaire. They are coming first in the big cities or where the far right is split, second in deep RN territory, and third everywhere else.

I am now sceptical they even keep their current 150 seats. Devastating.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I’m talking about the French regions near Belgium / Luxembourg / Germany borders where RN seems to be winning their seats already on the 1st round, getting >50% of the vote.

They're like Wallonia, except in Wallonia right wing parties get no media coverage. And MR basically is becoming a big tent RW party.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

The deeper I look, the more dire the situation looks for the Nouveau Front Populaire. They are coming first in the big cities or where the far right is split, second in deep RN territory, and third everywhere else.

I am now sceptical they even keep their current 150 seats. Devastating.

Yeah the Roussel loss already indicated this...

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Happens quite often in Bretagne only, I think.

Bretagne is Brittany in English, and has its own name in almost every European language due to a long history separate from France. Bretanha in Portuguese, and so on.

Bretagne is the correct name, i mean i don't know why you criticize him? We say Bretagne in dutch too. Brittany sounds goofy, reminds me of Britney Spears.