Since the polls so far are awfully similar to the EU elections, give or take a few points, it's worth taking a look of what they elections looked like constituency by constituency. I've grouped the Popular Front lists together as well as RN with Reconquête (since they can probably be counted on to support RN either by the first round or in the runoff). In addition, I've taken into account that LR voters could either join the macronists or the far-right, so I marked off the constituency where they make a difference with special colors. Here's what it looks like:
EXD majority: 64
EXD >45%: 82
EXD ahead: 206
Total: 352
FP majority: 47
FP >45%: 30
FP ahead: 73
Total: 150
LR ahead: 1
ENS ahead: 3
EXD with LR sup: 63
ENS with LR sup: 3
ENS or EXD with LR sup: 5
So... yeah, without some degree of tactical mutual support between Macronistas and the Popular Front in the runoff, we are looking at a potential bloodbath. Of course the patterns are going to be at least somewhat different, and local candidacies will matter a lot, but this at least gives you a place for where to look come next Sunday.
Wow!
What were Macron and his advisers thinking when they called this election...
