French National Assembly Elections, 06/30-07/07

[Mike88]

Harris/Toluna projects final turnout will stand at 69,7%.

Ipsos projects final turnout at 67.5%.

[axiomsofdominion]

Google is really being useless, what's a good website to see the results? Google keeps giving 2022 and 2024 EU election results.

[Gustaf]

Wait, sorry, how does the French run-off system work? Is it not just top-2?

[Mike88]

Wait, sorry, how does the French run-off system work? Is it not just top-2?

No, a third or fourth candidate that gathers a vote total above 12.5% of registered voters is also qualified to a second round. Plus, candidates are elected in the first round if they have 50%+1 of the votes and a vote total that amounts to 25% of registered voters.

[Sestak]

Wait, sorry, how does the French run-off system work? Is it not just top-2?

Strap in.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Google is really being useless, what's a good website to see the results? Google keeps giving 2022 and 2024 EU election results.

https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives2024/

https://www.lemonde.fr/resultats-elections/

[Death of a Salesman]

Final (Personal) Election Projections for Metropolitan France

First Round Vote Share


RN/UXD: 35.8%
NFP: 28.5%
Ensemble: 20.5%
LR (Dissident): 6.5%
Others: 8.7%

Qualifications for Second Round


RN/UXD: 464 (61 outright victories).
NFP: 461 (15 outright victories)
Ensemble: 274
LR: 28
Others: 9

Second Round Formats


Triangular (RN/NFP/ENS): 181
RN-NFP: 179
NFP-ENS: 62
RN-ENS: 17
Others: 35

Second Round Results
RN/UXD: 40.5%
NFP: 35.7%
Ensemble: 20.3%
LR (Dissident): 2.0%
Others: 1.5%

Assumed National Ballot by Format


Triangular: 40.9% RN, 33.3% NFP, 25.7% ENS
RN-NFP: 56.3% RN, 43.7% NFP
NFP-ENS: 46.9% NFP, 53.1% ENS
RN-ENS: 52.3% RN, 47.7% ENS


Final Metropolitan Results


RN/UXD: 345 (majority)
NFP: 146
Ensemble: 48
LR (Dissident): 8
Others: 3

Slightly favorable geography (the median seat splits 36.5% RN-27.6% NFP in the first round), a great profusion of triangular, and a preference for RN in runoffs against both NFP and ENS, leads to a substantial National Rally majority. They win their 289th seat (Vendee's 3rd) by 8.03 against ENS.

NFP gains slightly from 2022 but comes a clear second.

ENS is nearly wiped out, failing to even qualify for enough second rounds for a majority to be on the table.

The LR dissident faction sees their national share slip from an already dismal 11.3%, and fails to qualify for the second round anywhere outside of seats with an exceptional personal vote. They're far surpassed by Ciotti's RN adjacent faction, and probably dissolve as a political group shortly after the election.

[wbrocks67]

Can someone TLDR so far for the results that we've gotten up to this point?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Can someone TLDR so far for the results that we've gotten up to this point?

The only results we've gotten so far were from the DTOMs, which don't really mean much beyond their own local political dynamics. The left is generally ahead in Guadeloupe, Martinique and Guyana, as they usually are. The left-autonomist incumbents seem to be in trouble in French Polynesia, though their opponents seem to be other autonomists. In New Caledonia, the independentist left might be able to pick up one constituency from the right but we'll find out next week.

[Logical]

Live Broadcasts

France 24 English : https://www.youtube.com/live/3dyzgDj5h9g
France 24 fr : https://www.youtube.com/live/0K5S0FHB_qE
France Info : https://www.youtube.com/live/Z-Nwo-ypKtM

[Storr]

Harris/Toluna projects final turnout will stand at 69,7%.

17:00 turnout being the highest since 1986 is interesting. This is because, as I just learned, 1986 was the one election during the 5th Republic where proportional representation was used, due Mitterand choosing to bring it back. Thanks to this change, one Jean-Marie Le Pen was elected to the National Assembly for the first and only time as a member of FN.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Are the Belgian exit polls a thing here ?

[wbrocks67]

Can someone TLDR so far for the results that we've gotten up to this point?

The only results we've gotten so far were from the DTOMs, which don't really mean much beyond their own local political dynamics. The left is generally ahead in Guadeloupe, Martinique and Guyana, as they usually are. The left-autonomist incumbents seem to be in trouble in French Polynesia, though their opponents seem to be other autonomists. In New Caledonia, the independentist left might be able to pick up one constituency from the right but we'll find out next week.

Do we expect the results to line up with polling or is there likely to be surprises/overperformances?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Can someone TLDR so far for the results that we've gotten up to this point?

The only results we've gotten so far were from the DTOMs, which don't really mean much beyond their own local political dynamics. The left is generally ahead in Guadeloupe, Martinique and Guyana, as they usually are. The left-autonomist incumbents seem to be in trouble in French Polynesia, though their opponents seem to be other autonomists. In New Caledonia, the independentist left might be able to pick up one constituency from the right but we'll find out next week.

Do we expect the results to line up with polling or is there likely to be surprises/overperformances?

I mean. At this point we can just wait 5 minutes and find out.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ipsos projection:

RN 34
FP 28
ENS 20
LR 10

Basically as expected expect for LR doing a bit better.

[Mike88]

TF1 exit poll:

34.2% RN+allies
29.1% NFP+allies
21.5% Ensemble
10.0% Republicans

[Mike88]

TF1 Seat projection, using first round results:

240-270 RN
180-200 NFP
    60-90 Ensemble
    30-50 Republicans

BFMTV seat projection:

260-310 RN
115-145 NFP
  90-120 Ensemble
    30-50 Republicans

[Storr]

TF1 Seat projection, using first round results:

240-270 RN
180-200 NFP
    60-90 Ensemble
    30-50 Republicans

So chaos it is. Still better than RN willing a majority, at least.

[wbrocks67]

Is that not too bad, given the center + left will still have a total majority likely?

[Storr]

"Emmanuel Macron calls for a “broad, clearly democratic and republican gathering” against the RN
In a statement sent to the media, the head of state believes that the high participation shows a desire of the French to “clarify the political situation”. “Their democratic choice obliges us ,” he said.

“Faced with the National Rally, the time has come for a large, clearly Democratic and Republican gathering for the second round ,” he called, regarding withdrawals in view of the second round in the event of a potential victory of RN candidates. Candidates qualified for the second round have until 6 p.m. Tuesday to validate their registration at the prefecture."

https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/live/2024/06/30/en-direct-resultats-legislatives-2024-paroles-d-electeurs-c-est-tellement-important-cette-fois_6245488_823448.html?#id-1643608

[Oryxslayer]

TF1 Seat projection, using first round results:

240-270 RN
180-200 NFP
    60-90 Ensemble
    30-50 Republicans

So chaos it is. Still better than RN willing a majority, at least.

Quite frankly, this number is useless. This is the only truly national round. Next week everything will be seat-by-seat depending on who advanced and what they want. This means it's not even close to an exit poll estimation like in the UK next week (the popular vote does matter though). The dynamics when pushed to pick from two (maybe 3) change and in the past have led to under and over shootings of the leader. That is why we wait to see who is best positioned after round 1.


I will note that this 'best positioned' analysis was fairly on-the-nose when I did it in 2022, burt with the exception that in the period between round 1 and the runoff Macron made NUPES the big boogyman. Which led to unexpected (off R1) voter behavior and allowed RN to come through in more seats than anyone expected. Which shows what I said above, voter behavior from round 1 to the runoff complicates things.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I would caution people not to take any seat projections at face value until we have the actual qualified candidacies by constituency. At this point it's still guesswork, and the only thing worth commenting on are the national popular vote results.

[Storr]

If turnout breaks 70% then ~18% of the vote is enough to reach the second round. We might even see some quadranglar elections.

...or even quadrangulars, yeah. In constituencies with a strong LR incumbent but sizable bases for the three main blocs, that's conceivable.

"From 65 to 85 elected in the first round, between 285 and 315 triangular in the second round, according to Ipsos estimates

This first estimate by Ipsos Talan for France Télévisions, Radio France, France 24/RFI, LCP also predicts 150 to 170 duels. The RN would qualify in 390 to 430 constituencies, the NFP in 370 to 410 constituencies, Ensemble in 290 to 330."

https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/live/2024/06/30/en-direct-resultats-legislatives-2024-paroles-d-electeurs-c-est-tellement-important-cette-fois_6245488_823448.html?#id-1643668

[Logical]

RN underperformed the final polls by 3%. All to play for in the second round.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Could of been wrong raw tbh