French National Assembly Elections, 06/30-07/07

[Babeuf]

https://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2024/07/01/legislatives-2024-qui-sera-candidat-au-second-tour-suivez-le-decompte-en-temps-reel_6245837_4355771.html

Excellent tracker showing the triangulaires and who is dropping out of each (or not), along with the first round results in each.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I would personally do 3 way races with gray scale, decided seats with RGB or RGBY, and then blend 2 way races with the two colors of the party in the RGB scheme.

But I guess I can't say it would be better without swapping the colors to check.

The difficulty in blending colors is that you need 4 primary ones (arguably even 5 if you consider the "divers" candidates) whereas the structure of the color space is necessarily tripolar. This means that there's necessarily going to be some overlap between blends. Also, I'm not a fan of greyscale, as I always prefer highly saturated colors. The basic rules I used is that colors get lighter the more candidates there are, and that I tend to go toward the reds for left, yellows for center, blues for right and purples for far-right. I tried to blend them as reasonably as possible but had to be creative to avoid overlaps.

[adma]

https://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2024/07/01/legislatives-2024-qui-sera-candidat-au-second-tour-suivez-le-decompte-en-temps-reel_6245837_4355771.html

Excellent tracker showing the triangulaires and who is dropping out of each (or not), along with the first round results in each.

I love Google translating that and have "Cher" come out as "Expensive".

[Sorenroy]

Does a candidate dropping out mean that they will not appear on the second round ballot, or is it more a signaling thing? If it is the former, what is the deadline for candidates to make this withdrawal so their name is not on the list? IE: When will we know the actual, final races in each constituency?

[Oryxslayer]

https://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2024/07/01/legislatives-2024-qui-sera-candidat-au-second-tour-suivez-le-decompte-en-temps-reel_6245837_4355771.html

Excellent tracker showing the triangulaires and who is dropping out of each (or not), along with the first round results in each.

Usually it's the Left and Macronists effectively endorsing each other, but Funny situation spotted: Ciotti LR Candidate dropped out in Maine-et-Loire 5 leaving it as LFI vs ENS (Ren). And he finished in second place!

[Oryxslayer]

I would personally do 3 way races with gray scale, decided seats with RGB or RGBY, and then blend 2 way races with the two colors of the party in the RGB scheme.

But I guess I can't say it would be better without swapping the colors to check.

The difficulty in blending colors is that you need 4 primary ones (arguably even 5 if you consider the "divers" candidates) whereas the structure of the color space is necessarily tripolar. This means that there's necessarily going to be some overlap between blends. Also, I'm not a fan of greyscale, as I always prefer highly saturated colors. The basic rules I used is that colors get lighter the more candidates there are, and that I tend to go toward the reds for left, yellows for center, blues for right and purples for far-right. I tried to blend them as reasonably as possible but had to be creative to avoid overlaps.

Yeah. The alternative that I have done for my own analysis (not going to post it and conflict with yours!) is stick to the primary colors and instead use a varying secondary visual to demonstrate that depending on the medium in question - dots like a MMD, charts like a PR seat, etc. Downside is that it's far more messier, upside is less color bombardment.

[Sestak]

Are the withdrawals on that map final or could we see more in the coming days? Because right now a lot of third place Ensemble candidates have not withdrawn, even against non-LFI left candidates.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Does a candidate dropping out mean that they will not appear on the second round ballot, or is it more a signaling thing? If it is the former, what is the deadline for candidates to make this withdrawal so their name is not on the list? IE: When will we know the actual, final races in each constituency?

Qualified candidates must formalize their candidacies with the Interior Ministry in order to appear on the runoff ballot, so if a candidate does not present their candidacy they won't be on the ballot.

Are the withdrawals on that map final or could we see more in the coming days? Because right now a lot of third place Ensemble candidates have not withdrawn, even against non-LFI left candidates.

Official candidate lists will be published tomorrow at 6pm. That's when we will know exactly how many have dropped out. That said, I wouldn't be surprised if a bunch of macronistas decide not to drop out, since these people have no broader principles and their Dear Leader has enabled their behavior by engaging in both-sides false equivalencies for years.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I really tuned out of this due to all the hubbub about the debate and am just finally checking this out....yikes! ughhhh

If only the UK election was after the next round for this one, it'd be some good news to wipe away this awfulness.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fixed an error in Haute-Garonne, so here's the map again, and now with the actual breakdown by constituency:


Elected: 73
Left: 32
Center: 1
Right: 1
Far-right: 39

Duels: 166
Left vs Left: 4
Left vs Center: 27
Left vs Right: 4
Left vs Far-right: 66
Center vs Right: 1
Center vs Far-right: 36
Right vs Far-right: 25
Far-right vs Other: 3

Triangulars: 306
Left-Left-Center: 1
Left-Left-XR: 3
Left-Center-Center: 1
Left-Center-Right: 2
Left-Center-XR: 254
Left-Right-XR: 41
Left-XR-XR: 1
Left-XR-Other: 1
Center-Right-XR: 1
Right-XR-Other: 1

Quadrangulars: 5
Left-Left-Center-XR: 1
Left-Center-Right-XR: 4


And by political families:
Left: 36 Elected (including the 4 intra-left runoffs), 406 Qualified, 108 Eliminated
Center: 1 Elected, 328 Qualified, 221 Eliminated
Right: 1 Elected, 79 Qualified, 470 Eliminated
Far-Right: 39 Elected, 437 Qualified, 74 Eliminated

Five uncategorizable candidates also qualified, namely 3 Corsican regionalists, one Breton regionalists, and the unforgettable JEAN LASSALLE down in Pyrénées-Atlantiques.


Once we have the official runoff candidacies tomorrow, I will make an updated version of this map which will feature a lot less beige and a lot more green and fuchsia as Left and Macronist candidates drop out for each other.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

snip

Thanks again for updating us.

[Antonio the Sixth]

According to the tally of dropouts Le Monde is keeping, the number of triangulars and quadrangulars have melted from 311 to just 105. 124 out of 131 left-wing candidates in a triangular with the RN dropped out, while only 73 out of 97 Macronistas did the same thing. Almost no right-wingers dropped out, unsurprisingly.

I'll eventually run my own tallies since I don't fully trust Le Monde's labels, but this gives you an outline of where we stand.

[Oryxslayer]

According to the tally of dropouts Le Monde is keeping, the number of triangulars and quadrangulars have melted from 311 to just 105. 124 out of 131 left-wing candidates in a triangular with the RN dropped out, while only 73 out of 97 Macronistas did the same thing. Almost no right-wingers dropped out, unsurprisingly.

I'll eventually run my own tallies since I don't fully trust Le Monde's labels, but this gives you an outline of where we stand.

Up to 128 and 79. A very brief scan suggests that a good chunk of the remaining multi-candidate contests are in Brittany or urban-ish areas where the RN are in 3rd. Less pressure in the areas where the RN still is weaker it seems.  

Also two more RN dropouts. One in Calvados 1st (Caen) where they were far away in third, and  the other in Haute Corse 2nd which probably just corsica politicians doing corsica stuff.

[Epaminondas]

Despite massive reluctance from Macron's incumbents to stand down and give up prematurely on their career, the political pressure has paid and only a few of the worst-case scenarios remain (RN first, then NFP 2nd and the 3rd Ensemble candidate refusing to withdraw).

I count:
- Val d'Oise 1
- Essonne 2
- Rhone 8
- Hérault 1
- Bouches du Rhone 14
- Alpes Maritimes 1

Very close (RN second by a whisker):
- Haute-Vienne 3
- Somme 2
- Loire-Atlantique 9

Alpes Maritimes 1 is shocking as it helps Ciotti retain his seat, rewarding his party betrayal.

Can't understand Finistère 3, where both left-wing candidates (together 40%) withdrew against RN (31%) and LR (28%)

[Antonio the Sixth]

Can't understand Finistère 3, where both left-wing candidates (together 40%) withdrew against RN (31%) and LR (28%)

Yeah, that was just the left giving up a free seat. Deeply stupid decision.

Anyway, I'm not sure what happened there but your count clashes with Le Monde. You have 41 constituencies where Ens candidates are not dropping out despite RN being first or second, when Le Monde counts only 18 left. Can you double check your numbers?

I'll run my own tally this evening or tomorrow, but I want to wait until the dust settles.

[jaichind]

Any ETA on when the withdrawal will be reflected on the Ministry of Interior website?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Any ETA on when the withdrawal will be reflected on the Ministry of Interior website?

The deadline for candidacies is in an hour. The official candidate lists will probably be published tomorrow.

[Epaminondas]

You have 41 constituencies where Ens candidates are not dropping out despite RN being first or second, when Le Monde counts only 18 left. Can you double check your numbers?

This made me smile: these were the constituency numbers, not the tally! And I specifically narrowed it down to RN first, NFP second and non-withdrawing Macronista third, of which I count only 4 now
- Val d'Oise 1: Émilie Chandler (Ens)
- Rhone 8: Dominique Despras (Ens)
- Bouches du Rhone 14: Anne-Laurence Petel (Ens)
- Alpes Maritimes 1: Graig Monetti (Ens)

And then others where RN came second by a whisker and may still win, with the third staying in:
- Haute-Vienne 3: Gilles Toulza (Divers Centre)
- Somme 2: Hubert de Jenlis (Ens)
- Loire-Atlantique 9: Helene Macon (LFI)

I may have missed some.

[Antonio the Sixth]

You have 41 constituencies where Ens candidates are not dropping out despite RN being first or second, when Le Monde counts only 18 left. Can you double check your numbers?

This made me smile: these were the constituency numbers, not the tally! And I specifically narrowed it down to RN first, NFP second and non-withdrawing Macronista third, of which I count only 4 now
- Val d'Oise 1: Émilie Chandler (Ens)
- Rhone 8: Dominique Despras (Ens)
- Bouches du Rhone 14: Anne-Laurence Petel (Ens)
- Alpes Maritimes 1: Graig Monetti (Ens)

And then others where RN came second by a whisker and may still win, with the third staying in:
- Haute-Vienne 3: Gilles Toulza (Divers Centre)
- Somme 2: Hubert de Jenlis (Ens)
- Loire-Atlantique 9: Helene Macon (LFI)

I may have missed some.

oh lol, sorry

Le Monde counts 4 with RN first, 12 with RN second where Ens refuses to drop out. Anyway I'll start looking at it myself now since the candidacy deadline is over.

[jaichind]

I wonder if the Ciotti faction of LR will withdraw candidates where it is LFI ENS (or non-Ciotti-LR) and UXD in third. In theory, the reason Ciotti gave for his alliance with RN is to stop LFI.  Then the right thing to do in such a situation is to withdraw to back non-Ciotti- LR or ENS to stop LFI.

[jaichind]

According to the tally of dropouts Le Monde is keeping, the number of triangulars and quadrangulars have melted from 311 to just 105. 124 out of 131 left-wing candidates in a triangular with the RN dropped out, while only 73 out of 97 Macronistas did the same thing. Almost no right-wingers dropped out, unsurprisingly.

I'll eventually run my own tallies since I don't fully trust Le Monde's labels, but this gives you an outline of where we stand.

Could not one argue that non-Ciotti LR or allies dropping out are more likely to help RN especially if the alternative is NFP?

[Antonio the Sixth]

According to the tally of dropouts Le Monde is keeping, the number of triangulars and quadrangulars have melted from 311 to just 105. 124 out of 131 left-wing candidates in a triangular with the RN dropped out, while only 73 out of 97 Macronistas did the same thing. Almost no right-wingers dropped out, unsurprisingly.

I'll eventually run my own tallies since I don't fully trust Le Monde's labels, but this gives you an outline of where we stand.

Could not one argue that non-Ciotti LR or allies dropping out are more likely to help RN especially if the alternative is NFP?

Possibly, though it really depends on local constituency dynamics.

[lfromnj]

Polling vote transfer getting better for anti RN. Basically tied for LFI RN and slight rest of NFP lead. 2022 Le pen Macron margins for RN ENS.
ENS voters probably feel somewhat ok because NFP can’t really get a majority .

[MaxQue]

The sort of imported anti-Western communism that the petty bourgeois cadres of the French left wish to impose upon the country would be a mortal danger for the Republic; you just need to look at the insurrectional protests taking place across the cities. Everyone from the civilized center-left to the right should vote against the Popular Front’s barbaric worldview.

I see that Marine got her daddy Vladimir bot farms working overtime.

[lfromnj]

https://x.com/canardenchaine/status/1808176472198160505

Macron now claims he can still get a majority while he isn’t even running in 290 runoff seats. Once again thoughts are too complicated for journalists .